Wildfire and High Wind in Texas, February 28, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
606 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

.UPDATE...
DROPPING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WINDS BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH AND FROM
THE SOUTH ENOUGH NOW TO MAKE ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
UNLIKELY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS LAYER SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK UP IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING DUST AT KLBB. WINDS FURTHER VEER TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
LOW POSSIBILITY FOR STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS FRONT
TONIGHT...NOT MENTIONED IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW REMAINS BACKED THIS MORNING WITH A MOIST UPPER LEVEL
PLUME OVERHEAD...AND SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW ABOUT 800 MB. UPPER
LOW WAS KICKING EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN WITH PRECIPITATION
SPREADING FROM SOUTHERN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SYSTEM WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY CROSSING THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AND FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR MOST AREAS ON THE CAP-ROCK SHORTLY
AFTER 13Z OR 14Z...AND OVER ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

THE STRONGEST WIND CORE AND DRY PUNCH WILL BE DIRECTED JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA AS WE HAVE BEEN ANTICIPATING...BUT DEEP LAYERED STRONGER
FLOW WILL MIX ABRUPTLY TO THE SURFACE MOST AREAS LATER THIS MORNING
TO MID-DAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH DEEP MIXING INTO THIS
STRONGER WIND CORE OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TO REACH INTO HIGHER
WINDS. WE ARE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN FIVE
COUNTIES...WITH A WIND ADVISORY REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY BREAK PROVIDED BY
PASSAGE OF A BY-THEN DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. UNLIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT OTHER THAN A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS PERHAPS. A SHALLOW AND PERHAPS
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE REGION MAY FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE
CORE OF 35 KT WINDS HUGS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...SO THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR STRONGER WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF SUBSIDENCE. HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY MODEST
BREEZES OVERNIGHT FOR NOW SIMILAR TO MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
AFTER A WINDY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. A
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH ONLY
BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER...THURSDAY WILL RETURN TO FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING TO LEVELS PROGGED TO BE JUST
SHY OF 700MB. WIND SPEEDS AT 700MB ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 40KT
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE A
STRONGER HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS EVEN FURTHER WITH NEAR ZERO
SURFACE DEW POINTS POSSIBLE. TO PUT IN PERSPECTIVE THE RAPID CHANGE
FROM TUESDAYS MOISTURE TO THURSDAYS LACK OF MOISTURE...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PLUNGE FROM 0.70 INCHES TO AROUND
0.10 INCHES. THE REGION WILL ALSO SEE A BUILDING LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE WHICH MAY INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO ANOTHER WARMUP EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY...SOUTHERN ZONES COULD SEE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MET BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. JDV

FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ON THE
CAPROCK AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON OFF THE CAPROCK. MOISTURE FLOW
SHUNTED EAST WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT
ON THE CAPROCK...BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY TO DROP THAT LOW OVER MOST OF
THE ROLLING PLAINS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE CAPROCK AND
AREAS ADJACENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO INCREASE
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM CHILDRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH JAYTON AND
ASPERMONT WHERE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LAST LONGER. ADDED HALL...
MOTLEY...AND CROSBY COUNTIES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING AND WILL CANCEL
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ELSEWHERE IN THE EAST...REPLACED WITH A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT INSTEAD. PACIFIC FRONT EDGING EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD SEE STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO
THE EVENING AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH THE FRONT SEEM LIKELY TO KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGHER BY THEN.
RMCQUEEN

ANOTHER ROUND OF FIRE WEATHER MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
PANHANDLE ALONG WITH AN INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENT. ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WILL BE DEEP WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. WILL EXPECT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO BE ISSUED FOR
THURSDAY AT A LATER TIME GIVEN THE FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONT ARRIVES LATER THAN EXPECTED...AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS COULD MEET
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  27  65  31  70 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         69  30  67  32  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     69  32  69  33  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     69  33  70  34  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       71  34  70  35  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   68  32  70  37  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  33  71  35  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     76  37  73  38  79 /  30   0   0   0   0
SPUR          76  37  73  37  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     79  38  75  39  82 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ024>026-029>044.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>023-027-028.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>025-027>031-033>036-039>041.

&&

05/99/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
502 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

TXZ021>044-291115-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
502 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NON PRECIPITATION

AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH
VISIBILITIES LOCALLY UNDER A MILE MAINLY FOR AREAS ON THE CAP-ROCK.
A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WITH A WIND ADVISORY
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

FIRE WEATHER

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS IN EFFECT
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ON THE CAP-ROCK AND
ADJACENT TO THE CAP-ROCK IN THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER IS IS EXPECTED FOR REMAINING AREAS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO CREATE POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.