Tornado and Hail in Indiana, February 28 to 29, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
604 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

INSERTED SCATTERED TSRA AFTER 00Z WED FOR WARM ADVECTION TSRA AS
WARM FRONT OVERTAKES THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FA BY 06Z WED. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE BEST COVERAGE
AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BEGIN AROUND 6Z WED AND BE CENTERED ON THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PER THE 00Z TUE ECMWF AND JUST EAST OF THAT
WITH 12Z WED GFS. THE 12Z WED NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE PARAMETERS AROUND 09Z. HOWEVER THERE IS
A VERY WEAK CAP REFLECTED NEAR THE SURFACE. ALBEIT WEAK IF THIS
MANAGES TO COME TO FRUITION AND HOLD IT WOULD REDUCE BUT NOT
ELIMINATE THE TOR THREAT OVERNIGHT. WITH OTHER MODELS THE CAP
ERODES AROUND 6Z AND WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE BASE STORMS THAT COULD
BECOME SEVERE...HOWEVER THE BEST TOR THREAT IS STILL AFTER 9Z.
WITH THE ALL MODELS SUPPORTING NO CAP AFTER 12Z AS THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IS SHIFTING TO THE EAST. HELICITY
VALUES RANGE FROM 400 TO 600 BUT THE CAPE AND LI'S REALLY DOESNT GET
GOING GOOD UNTIL AROUND 9Z THEN LIS START GOING NEGATIVE AND CAPE
STARTS AROUND 500 INCREASING TO GREATER THAN A 1K BY 12Z AND LI'S
INCREASING TO -3. MOST ALL THESE VALUES WERE GLEANED FROM THE 12Z
WED NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING. THIS WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST ELEVATED
SEVERE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z BECOMING MORE SURFACED BASED
AFTER 09Z AND ABSOLUTELY SURFACE BASED BY 12Z. THUS MAIN AREA WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DISCRETE SUPER CELLS
POSSIBLE IN THE MAIN AREAS WAKE AROUND OR EVEN AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO
EXPECT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER 18Z WED
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS. THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT INTO THE AREA
SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAYS WEATHER EVENT...ON
FRIDAY A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ETC STILL INDICATING A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ANY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

EVEN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...ON
SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED
WITH DECENT MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH IT
IS BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD PRECIP CHANCES COULD RETURN TO
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG RANGE MODELS STILL NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENING...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY BY
LATE EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF IFR AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AT
THIS POINT. ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE FORECAST TERMINALS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SKIES CLEAR. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
602 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-291100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
602 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WIND. MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS ARE
FORECAST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...SURFACE BASED STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE INTENSE. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD
BE THE MAIN HAZARD. BUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS WELL. STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AROUND 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE AREA WILL BE SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY...MOVING EAST
WITH TIME. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH MAY GUST 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET FRIDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE
WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NEAR THE BOOTHEEL REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1100 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

ILZ083-INZ081-085-086-KYZ014-018-290545-
GIBSON IN-HENDERSON KY-POSEY IN-UNION KY-VANDERBURGH IN-WHITE IL-
1100 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WHITE COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GIBSON...POSEY AND
VANDERBURGH COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND NORTHWESTERN
HENDERSON AND EXTREME NORTHERN UNION COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY
UNTIL 1145 PM CST...

AT 1056 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF MOUNT VERNON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EVANSVILLE...BLAIRSVILLE...POSEYVILLE...KASSON AND CYNTHIANA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.