Drought in South Dakota, March 1 to 31, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1132 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ONE REMAINING LIGHT SNOW BAND HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT JUST WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. ONLY EXPECTING ABOUT A
HALF INCH WITH THIS. ELSEWHERE LIGHT SNOW PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED
WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SO ANY REMAINING POCKETS OF BLOWING SNOW
WILL END. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WERE CANCELLED EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING LINE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS WELL AND
NOW SEEING THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA BREAK OUT IN SUNSHINE.

LATER TONIGHT THE CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER EAST IN
THE CWA. ACROSS THE AREAS WHERE SKIES GO CLEAR...THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL MELTING OF SNOW TODAY COULD PROMOTE
SOME FOG...SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.
TOUGH LOW TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AND NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST NUMBERS. TYPICALLY WITH A FRESH DEEP SNOW PACK AND
CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS...ONE WOULD REALLY TANK TEMPS
BELOW GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH...REALLY NOT MUCH IN WAY OF ARCTIC AIR
BEHIND THIS STORM. MODELS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO DO SOME ADJUSTING
TO OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE THE TEMP FALL BEGINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. 500 MB LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY AND A VORT LOBE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN
LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. MODELS SUGGESTING
LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BUT
THERE IS SUGGESTION TO HAVE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY BLEED SOUTHEAST
INTO THE EASTERN CWA. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK VERY
LIGHT AS WELL. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND REMAINS
DOMINANT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES ZONAL AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT LIFT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY
WEAK...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK ACROSS CANADA...FINALLY DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY AT
THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES BACK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NOW HAVING SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER...WILL
STICK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE SNOW STARTS TO MELT TOWARD THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH THE FRESH SNOW FOG/LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE FOG TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES BY
09Z WITH ALL SITES IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 14Z TO 16Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE FOG. HOWEVER
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WITH LIGHTER WINDS...IFR CONDITIONS
WILL HANG AROUND IN THE EAST LONGER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
327 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-012130-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
327 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012 /227 PM MST WED FEB 29 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TMT