Damaging Wind in South Carolina, June 25, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
445 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...KEEPING TROPICAL STORM DEBBY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A STRONG WARMING TREND AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS BY THUR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 440 PM EDT...DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE IDEA OF CONVECTION
TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH SBCAPE AND HIGH DCAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA) INTO THE EVENING. WHAT APPEARS TO BE LACKING IS STRONGER
SFC CONVERGENCE!. HOWEVER WITH THE WEAK WIND SHIFT DROPPING THROUGH
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH TAIL END OF A S/W PIVOTING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...WE STILL COULD ACTIVATE THINGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TARGET.

EARLIER DISUSSSION...NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING THRU THIS EVE BUT FCST
AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG
EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEST SHEAR
WILL BE E OF CWA BUT THERE IS STILL A CHC OF TSTMS SO HELD ON TO SCT
COVERAGE INTO THIS EVE...MAINLY SE ZONES. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
GET GOING WILL TAPER OFF WITH COOLING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT
BEHIND WEAK FRONT. MRNG LOWS WILL COOL A FEW DEG BELOW AVG.
COOL...DRY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N TUE. EXPECT
MCLR SKIES WITH HI TEMPS 5-7 DEG BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...AN UNUSUALLY TRANQUIL/CONVECTION-FREE SHORT
TERM PERIOD IS STILL ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON WED AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH THU. UNSEASONABLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL
CONTINUE WED AND GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE 50S ON THU. THIS TRANSLATES
INTO RH'S NEAR 25% WED AFTERNOON OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AND 30-35%
MOST MOUNTAINA AREAS. THE UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EASTWARD...SO TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
NEAR CLIMO ON WED...INCREASING TO A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO ON
THU. MIN TEMPS BELOW AVE TUE NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR CLIMO WED
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...THE BIG STORY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A
BUILD UP OF HEAT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRODUCING THE SWELTERING TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SECTION
OF THE COUNTRY CONTINUES TO RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR 100 OR INTO THE LOW
100'S BOTH FRI AND SAT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO...THESE TWO DAYS
WILL SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY DIURANL CONVECTION...EXCEPT PERHAPS SAT
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS. SOME CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
BE DEVELOPING IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO EVENTUALLY MOVE TS
DEBBY THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE SE COAST
BY LATE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY
DIRECT IMPACTS TO OUR AREA...IT WILL SERVE TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH
OVER THE AREA AND TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST DIURNAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TO OCCUR EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO MODERATE SOME SUN AND MON...BUT
STILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE. STAYED CLOSE TO HPC
GUIDANCE... EXCEPT MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY TOO HIGH
BASED ON PAST HEAT WAVES...SO LOWERED MINS USING ADJMEN (ENSEMBLE)
NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A CHC OF TSTMS THIS AFTN-EVE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES S INTO MORE MOIST...SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR. EXPECT SCT
COVERAGE WITH BEST CHC IN CWA SE OF I-85...ESP E OF I-77 CORRIDOR.
CONVECTION WILL END WITH COOLING. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES BEHIND FRONT
TONIGHT. VRB WINDS 10KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE WILL SWING N-NE BY THIS
EVE...EXCEPT N WINDS AT KAVL WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL
PRECLUDE MRNG FOG.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE TUE-FRI....WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
OVER MTN RIDGES FRI AFTN.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WINESETT
NEAR TERM...RB/STUREY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...RB/STUREY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-261915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
313 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL. ANY SEVERE WEATHER
IS MOST LIKELY IN THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1140 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW HICKORY GROVE     34.96N 81.43W
06/24/2012                   YORK               SC   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1150 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW LINCOLNTON         35.42N 81.31W
06/24/2012                   LINCOLN            NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF TREES DOWN AROUND THE CROUSE AREA

&&

TW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
535 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

SCZ001-002-004-005-010-252215-
ANDERSON-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS
MOUNTAINS-
535 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN OCONEE...NORTHWESTERN
ANDERSON AND PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 534 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PICKENS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  PICKENS...
  LIBERTY...
  NINE TIMES...
  NORRIS...
  CENTRAL...

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3454 8288 3479 8312 3500 8275 3479 8257

JPT