Hail and Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, April 26, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
601 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AFTER A SUNNY FRIDAY THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE WEEKEND WILL END WITH DRIER
BUT STILL COOL WEATHER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HEADING INTO CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SEEN A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION . SHARP FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPGRADED
FREEZE WATCH TO WARNING AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BELOW
FREEZING IN THE WARNED AREA FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE COOL
TEMPERATURES. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE QUITE GUSTY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD BE AN ISSUE
THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MARGINAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM...AND FREEZE PRODUCTS MAY HAVE
TO BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPLEX LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYS OUT E-W JUST SOUTH OF PENN. WEAK RIDGE WITH STRONGER SURFACE
REFLECTION EXTENDING FROM W ONTARIO ACROSS THE GLAKES INTO
DELMARVA WILL TRY TO HANG TOUGH...BUT WILL BE ERODED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTING
FROM THE C PLAINS. THIS WILL ATTEMPT TO NUDGE BOUNDARY NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT...BUT HAVE ONLY MINIMAL SUCCESS. THOUGH A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON THE DETAILS...APPEARS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
DURING THE DAY SAT ACROSS SW HALF OF CWA AS WARM FRONT BULGES.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS ON
SATURDAY...WITH MOST REMAINING IN THE 40S. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING QUICK CUTOFF TO NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF PRECIP...AND MUCH OF IT HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF PA TURNPIKE. IF PRECIP EDGES TOWARD I-80...MAY SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SCENARIO LOOKS
UNLIKELY.

SURFACE LOW SLIDES OFF THE COAST LATER SAT NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN TAKES CONTROL...SPRAWLING ACROSS PA AS FRONT AGAIN SAGS TO OUR
SOUTH. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SUN NIGHT
IS LIKELY TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK...WITH READINGS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHERN MTNS AND BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF CWA.

GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY AS HIGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
INCREASE ABOUT 5F EACH DAY IN RETURN FLOW ON BACK OF HIGH.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...WHICH ARE VERY HARD TO RESOLVE AT THESE
RANGES...WILL MODULATE OPPORTUNITIES OF PCPN. INTRODUCED POPS
STARTING MONDAY NGT AND CARRIED SCHC/CHC THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THRU THE REGION WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL END AFTER 01Z
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NW. LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR.
SAT...CHC RAIN/LOW CIGS SOUTH...POSS MIX WITH SNOW LAURELS/SC MTNS.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...MVFR/IFR SHOWERS

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
442 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042-272045-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
442 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-272045-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-
FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
442 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GARTNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
812 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

PAZ035-036-064-065-270100-
ADAMS PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-YORK PA-
812 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FULTON...SOUTHERN
ADAMS...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN YORK COUNTIES...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERED PORTIONS OF
ADAMS...FRANKLIN...FULTON AND YORK COUNTIES AT 804 PM EDT. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE GENERALLY MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 15.

LAT...LON 3983 7817 3995 7753 3975 7674 3971 7692
      3972 7771

FORECASTER: LA CORTE