Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, April 26, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
243 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THEN SOUTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF LUBBOCK EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WAS TAKING SHAPE FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS HELPING TO DEVELOP INITIAL CUMULUS AND SHOWERS
OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND
DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A
FEW SEVERE ONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM CHANNING TO DUMAS TO PERRYTON TO BEAVER. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE FAIRLY ISOLATED GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

WEST WINDS WILL BE PRETTY GUSTY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WE REMOVED THE SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHERN CWA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TOO FAR REMOVED
FROM OUR AREA TO BRING US RAIN.

THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED FROM THE LAST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO BRING US A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN AROUND 15 PERCENT. THE CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THE LATER HALF OF
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                56  83  44  71  47 /  20   5   0  10  30
BEAVER OK                  60  80  46  70  45 /  50  10  10  10  30
BOISE CITY OK              51  78  42  69  42 /  70   5  10   5  30
BORGER TX                  60  86  51  73  48 /  30   5   5  10  30
BOYS RANCH TX              54  84  47  74  47 /  30   5   5  10  30
CANYON TX                  56  85  44  72  48 /  20   5   0  10  30
CLARENDON TX               60  87  50  71  51 /  20   5   0  10  30
DALHART TX                 49  79  45  72  44 /  40   5   5  10  30
GUYMON OK                  57  80  46  72  44 /  50  10  10  10  30
HEREFORD TX                55  83  45  72  50 /  20   5   0  10  30
LIPSCOMB TX                61  82  48  71  47 /  50  10   5  10  30
PAMPA TX                   55  81  46  70  50 /  20   5   0  10  30
SHAMROCK TX                61  88  50  73  52 /  20   5   0  10  30
WELLINGTON TX              62  91  53  74  56 /  20   5   0  10  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

16/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
347 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-270900-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
347 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PANHANDLES
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
355 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012

TXZ016-017-262130-
DEAF SMITH TX-RANDALL TX-
355 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR RANDALL AND DEAF
SMITH COUNTIES.

AT 352 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER UMBARGER...OR ABOUT 12 MILES
WEST OF CANYON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

JOHNSON