Drought in Oregon, October 1 to 11, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1006 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2012

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THIS PERIOD WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST PACKAGE
LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS
AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT THEN ALONG THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND WESTERN MONTANA ON
TUESDAY.  THE TWO BIGGEST IMPACTS WITH THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM IN
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE BLOWING DUST ON TUESDAY AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED TO INFORM ABOUT THESE CONCERNS.  ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING STRONG WINDS...GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD RESULT IN AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST. THE COLUMBIA BASIN HAS OBSERVED LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL SINCE LATE JULY...AND THE TOP SOIL ALONG MANY OF THE FIELDS
IS LOOSE AND DRY.

COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES BEHIND THE DRY FRONT.
850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER FROM 16-20C MONDAY AFTERNOON TO 6-12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THEN 4-8C ON WEDNESDAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
MAINLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON IN SOME AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY BASIN.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPSTREAM FRONT...THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO IMPROVE THE
AIR QUALITY OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON.  THE AIR QUALITY ALERT
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12 PM MONDAY.  WISTER

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROVIDING ABOVE NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COLDER AIR
ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...SO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TO THE 20S MOUNTAINS AND 30S LOWER ELEVATIONS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO MONTANA ON THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE EAST TO BRING PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA. IT MAY BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. COLD DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  79  49  69 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  55  79  54  71 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  45  81  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  43  81  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  44  81  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  50  79  48  68 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  40  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  44  79  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  48  81  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  50  83  51  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     WAZ520.

&&

THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

91/76/76

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
159 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2012

UPDATED TO ADJUST AREAL COVERAGE OF SMOKE

ORZ041-042-044-049-050-502-503-505>509-WAZ024-026>030-520-521-
011415-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-JOHN DAY BASIN-OCHOCO-
JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES-SIMCOE HIGHLANDS-
159 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SMOKE
     EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY,

PATCHY SMOKE WILL PERSIST TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY. THE SMOKE WILL CAUSE POOR AIR QUALITY
AND AN AIR QUALITY ALERT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST
NOON ON MONDAY IN THE WASHINGTON ZONES AS A RESULT. PLEASE REFER
TO NWS PRODUCT ID PDXAQAPDT FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE AIR QUALITY
ALERT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SMOKE
 	EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
	GORGE OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY

BLOWING DUST TUESDAY
     SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON,
     KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON,
     EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON,
     LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE
     MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
     OF OREGON

ON MONDAY THERE WILL STILL BE PATCHY SMOKE IN THE WASHINGTON ZONES
FROM THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES EASTWARD TO THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS
VALLEYS IN THE MORNING. THE AIR QUALITY ALERT IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE WASHINGTON ZONES EAST OF THE
CASCADES. AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF CANADA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING WITH IT MUCH COOLER AIR AND INCREASING WINDS. DUE TO THE
LACK OF RAINFALL DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS THE WINDS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE BLOWING DUST ON TUESDAY IN THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE.
BLOWING DUST WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NEAR FRESHLY PLOWED FIELDS. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (PDXSPSPPDT) PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY DUE TO BLOWING DUST.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE.