Yet another incoming cold front brought high winds to portions of southern Oregon.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Yet another incoming cold front brought high winds to portions of southern Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 3, 9:12 PM PST, 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
912 PM PST MON DEC 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETTING UP FOR THE AREA WITH A
GOOD TROPICAL CONNECTION TO JUST EAST OF HAWAII OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. PLENTY OF RAIN AND WIND CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH VERY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. A QUICK LOOK
AT THE 00Z MODELS HAS REVEALED A COUPLE OF THINGS OF NOTE. THE GFS
IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH RESPECT TO QPF FOR THE
UPCOMING RAIN EVENT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT PAINTS A
BULLS EYE OF 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY TO WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO ABOUT 7 INCHES OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE 00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS WET, BUT STILL
TARGETS SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 5 INCHES.
THIS IS SIGNIFICANT SINCE RIVERS AND STREAMS ALONG THE COAST HAVE
BEEN PRIMED BY PREVIOUS WET SYSTEMS. RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL EMPTY INTO THOSE BASINS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RISES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING. FLOODING IS
ONGOING ON THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. FLOOD WATCHES WERE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES
...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNTS FORECAST, THESE LOOK ON TARGET. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOOD CONCERNS OR IF IT WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER
LONG ENOUGH DURATION THAT THE RIVER SYSTEMS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THE NEW INFLOWS. WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THE NEW MODELS TO SEE IF THEY LEND ANY NEW INSIGHTS. ONE OTHER
NOTE, WINDS ARE PICKING UP CURRENTLY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN. ALSO HAD A PILOT REPORT OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE
MEDFORD AIRPORT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
TAF. WIND HEADLINES LOOK REASONABLE. SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 04/00Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT NORTH BEND AHEAD OF A POTENT FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING AT THE COAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE. EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SHASTA VALLEY...HILLS
AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY...AND EAST SIDE. TURBULENCE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SHIFT
INLAND ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION EAST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MSO
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM PST MON DEC 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...
YET ANOTHER MOISTURE RICH FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY. DUE TO ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND AND THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...MORE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERITY OF THIS FLOODING WILL
DEPEND ON PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND LOCATION DETAILS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED. THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE
WILL BE TWO WAVES OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE SECOND WAVE WILL MERGE WITH THE
FIRST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...SENDING A 6 TO 12
HOUR SURGE OF MODERATE TO VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS COMING FORM THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND AREA...AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SHOOTING UP TO 8000 TO 9000 FEET FOR THE BULK
OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH AND OTHER FLOOD WATCHES FOR
MORE INFORMATION. BTL
WIND...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD A DAMAGING
WIND EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FIRST...THEN
IMPACT THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A GOOD
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO 5000 FOOT WINDS...AND A GRADUALLY LOWERING
STABLE LAYER...WILL HELP DEVELOP A COASTAL BARRIER JET. THIS MEANS
THAT WINDS WILL LIKELY PUSH HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG THE
COASTLINE AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...AND WITH THE SOIL SATURATED PER RECENT HEAVY
RAINS...DOWNED TREES AND LOSS OF POWER IS LIKELY.
AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INLAND...THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST
OF THE CASCADES WILL START TO EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS. THERE IS A
DECENT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE H7 WINDS...SO THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH WINDS OCCURRING NEAR WEED IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE MFR-RDD GRADIENT IS STILL PUSHING 10MB...SO
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS REAL. EAST OF THE CASCADES A
LONG-DURATION WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED...LASTING FROM EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE WESTERLY COMPONENT ALOFT
FAVORING SUMMER LAKE AREA AS GETTING THE STRONGEST WINDS.
LASTLY...BUT NOT LEAST...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL
SEE GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR ASHLAND AND THE HILLS SURROUNDING THE ROGUE
VALLEY...WITH THE THOUGHT THAT LACK OF GOOD SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO
WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM SURFACING IN THE
CENTER OF MEDFORD AND OTHER LOWER PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. TREES WILL
BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WIND DAMAGE GIVEN THE VERY WET SOILS FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IT IS EXPECTED THAT ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS ON
TUESDAY...WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE VALLEY...AS IS TYPICAL.
PLEASE SEE THE WIND PRODUCTS AT NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS ON SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS AND TIMING.
HYDROLOGY... URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY DURING
THIS NEXT EVENT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME CREEKS AND MAIN STEM RIVERS
MAY ALSO REACH ACTION OR FLOOD STAGE. BTL
CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY ENDED A 4 DAY PERIOD AT MEDFORD AIRPORT WITH 4.39
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THIS RANKED 19TH IN THE CLIMATE RECORD
FOR ALL TIME WETTEST 4 DAY PERIODS...AND WAS THE WETTEST 4 DAYS
PERIOD SINCE NOVEMBER 23RD OF 1998.
THE ASHLAND COOP SITE RECEIVED 4.78 INCHES DURING THIS SAME
PERIOD...WHICH RANKS AS THE 8TH WETTEST 4 DAY PERIOD ON
RECORD...AND WETTEST SINCE NOVEMBER 24TH OF 1998.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM PST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ORZ025>030.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
ORZ021-022.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ORZ021>024.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ029.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ026.
CA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM PST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CAZ082-083.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CAZ080-081.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ084-085.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ081.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SPILDEThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Flynn Prairie RAWS recorded numerous gusts exceeding 57 mph during this interval. The peak gust was 66 mph at 04/0013 and 04/0213 PST. The Gold Beach ASOS recorded a gust to 58 mph at 03/2319 PST and a gust to 59 mph at 03/2339 PST.
The Port Orford NOS-NWLON recorded numerous gusts exceeding 57 mph during this interval. The peak gust was 66 mph at 04/0006 PST. The Long Prairie RAWS recorded a gust to 68 mph at 04/0113 PST.
The Squaw Peak RAWS recorded a gust to 76 mph at 04/0139 PST and a gust to 82 mph at 04/1439 PST.
The Summer Lake RAWS recorded several gusts exceeding 57 mph during this interval. The peak gust was 61 mph recorded at 04/0638 PST. A spotter SSW Silver Lake reported south winds 40 mph gusting to 65 to 70 mph at 04/1144 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, December 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 422616, 422615, 422618, 422619.