Hail in Ohio, September 22, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1249 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MAINY VFR THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 20Z AS COMPACT VORT MAX
ROTATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW FREEZING LEVELS ON
SRN FRINGE OF COLD POOL ALOFT HAS SUPPORTED SCT THUNDER/SMALL
HAIL. BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY
18Z. STILL NEED TO MONITOR ADDITIONAL COVECTION WITH PRIMARY
CIRCULATION OVER SRN LAKE MI WHICH SHOULD PASS OVER SBN AROUND
18-20Z. AS A RESULT OPTED TO RETAIN THE TEMPO 3SM TSRA GROUP
THROUGH 20Z AT SBN. STRONG LOW LVL CAA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
SUPPORT GUSTY WNW WINDS THIS AFTN WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/CLOUDS
EXPECTED AT SBN INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS STRONGER ISALLOBARIC FORCING SHIFTS
EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012/

SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SHRTWV ACROSS SW MI/NE IL EARLY THIS MORNING MOVG EAST THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WAS CAUSING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW
PORTION OF THE CWA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONT SPREADING EASTWARD
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
WINDS SPREADING FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
SHOULD CAUSE THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED.

COMPACT UPR LEVEL LOW DROPPING SE ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR CWA DURING THE DAY WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM LIKELY MOVG THROUGH OUR AREA MIDDAY.
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND FROM TRACK OF LOW
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD RESULT IN SCT TSTMS AS WELL. ENHANCED
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE IN VCNTY OF THE UPR LOW ALSO SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS IN OUR MARINE AREA. CAA...CLOUDS... AND
SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT TEMP WARMUP TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
U50S-L60S.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NWLY BY THIS EVE. LAKE INDUCED CAPE FCST
>1K/KG TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SCT LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS SE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS UPSTREAM SPREADING ACROSS THE LAKE. TEMP FALL
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND GRADIENT MIXING WITH
LOWS FCST IN THE U30S SW AND L40S NE.

NW FLOW WILL CONT SUNDAY BUT WITH INVERSION GRADUALLY LOWERING... LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH. TEMPS WILL CONT WELL BLO
NORMAL AS THERMAL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO
DECREASE AND GRADIENT WINDS TO DIMINISH... ESPECIALLY SW PORTION
OF THE CWA WHERE FROST IS PSBL... LOWS FCST IN THE M-U30S...
COOLEST SW.

LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

AFTER A POTENTIALLY FROSTY START TO SOME AREAS...THE REGION WILL SEE
A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS COLDEST AIR
SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS STILL ON TAP FOR MONDAY
WITH MAIN SURGE OF WARMER AIR WAITING UNTIL TUESDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...AFTER A COOL AND DAMP WEEKEND...STILL WILL BE
PLEASANT FEELING.

EVEN AS TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL...SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL PERSIST WITH DEEP HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW SENDING ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL
EJECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVERTISED TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING AT
LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS STARTING IN SW AREAS TUESDAY SPREADING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUES NGT LINGERING INTO WEDS NGT.
WITH NO SIG TROUGH TO PUSH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM ENERGY COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY. FOR NOW HAVE WENT AGAINST ALLBLEND AND OPTED FOR DRY
FORECAST THURS INTO FRI FOR NOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE TUES THROUGH
FRI TIME FRAME SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST SPOTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ003.

MI...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
438 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

LMZ043-046-230845-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
438 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

INZ003-MIZ077-230845-
LA PORTE-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
438 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012 /338 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BERRIEN AND LA
PORTE COUNTY SHORELINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE BERRIEN AND LA PORTE COUNTY SHORELINES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-230845-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
438 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012 /338 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 IN INDIANA...OHIO...AND MICHIGAN. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
ROUTE 30.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1252 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 AM     HAIL             WAKARUSA                41.54N  86.02W
09/22/2012  M0.50 INCH       ELKHART            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL FELL FOR 17 MINUTES.

&&

BENTLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1259 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

INZ006>009-018-MIZ079-080-OHZ004-015-221745-
ALLEN IN-BRANCH MI-DE KALB IN-DEFIANCE OH-LAGRANGE IN-NOBLE
IN-PAULDING OH-ST. JOSEPH MI-STEUBEN IN-
1259 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD EXTREME WESTERN DEFIANCE...
NORTHWESTERN PAULDING...SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOSEPH...SOUTHERN BRANCH...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN HILLSDALE...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WHITLEY...
NORTHERN ALLEN...DE KALB...EASTERN NOBLE...STEUBEN AND EASTERN
LAGRANGE COUNTIES...

AT 1254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ANGOLA TO AVILLA TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF HUNTERTOWN...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  GARRETT...
  AUBURN...
  ANGOLA...
  BUTLER...
  GRABILL AND WATERLOO...
  HAMILTON AND FREMONT...

LAT...LON 4176 8483 4176 8481 4143 8481 4115 8474
      4114 8527 4137 8536 4182 8534 4183 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 270DEG 29KT 4179 8527 4137 8525
          4113 8516

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
106 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             1 N WALLEN              41.18N  85.17W
09/22/2012  M0.88 INCH       ALLEN              IN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MOSTLY PEA SIZED HAIL WITH A FEW DIME TO NICKEL SIZED
            STONES.

&&

BENTLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
136 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     HAIL             DECATUR                 40.83N  84.93W
09/22/2012  M0.25 INCH       ADAMS              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BENTLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
138 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 PM     HAIL             HUNTINGTON              40.88N  85.50W
09/22/2012  M0.25 INCH       HUNTINGTON         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BENTLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
227 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     HAIL             LIMA                    40.74N  84.11W
09/22/2012  M0.75 INCH       ALLEN              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BENTLEY