A cool northwest flow over the relatively warm waters of Lake Michigan, combined with a weak disturbance and pockets of heating, allowed for the development of lake enhanced showers. Pea size hail was common with many of the showers, but a few were able to produce hail to the size of nickels.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
A cool northwest flow over the relatively warm waters of Lake Michigan, combined with a weak disturbance and pockets of heating, allowed for the development of lake enhanced showers. Pea size hail was common with many of the showers, but a few were able to produce hail to the size of nickels.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 22, 5:26 AM EST, 5 hours 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 626 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012 .AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/ LIFR STRATUS/FOG OVER NE INDIANA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z AS WINDS/MIXING CONTS TO INCREASE. MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL SHRA AND SCT TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPR LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WRN WI MOVES SE ACROSS NRN INDIANA. BEST INSTABILITY CLOSEST TO UPR LOW TRACK WILL BE OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO TSRA MIDDAY AT SBN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVE AS UPR LOW MOVES AWAY... HWVR LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU AND SCT SHRA SHOULD PERSIST... ESPCLY AT SBN CLOSER TO THE LAKE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012/ SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/ SHRTWV ACROSS SW MI/NE IL EARLY THIS MORNING MOVG EAST THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WAS CAUSING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW PORTION OF THE CWA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SPREADING FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS SHOULD CAUSE THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED. COMPACT UPR LEVEL LOW DROPPING SE ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR CWA DURING THE DAY WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM LIKELY MOVG THROUGH OUR AREA MIDDAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND FROM TRACK OF LOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD RESULT IN SCT TSTMS AS WELL. ENHANCED INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE IN VCNTY OF THE UPR LOW ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS IN OUR MARINE AREA. CAA...CLOUDS... AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT TEMP WARMUP TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U50S-L60S. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NWLY BY THIS EVE. LAKE INDUCED CAPE FCST >1K/KG TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS UPSTREAM SPREADING ACROSS THE LAKE. TEMP FALL SHOULD BE LIMITED BY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND GRADIENT MIXING WITH LOWS FCST IN THE U30S SW AND L40S NE. NW FLOW WILL CONT SUNDAY BUT WITH INVERSION GRADUALLY LOWERING... LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH. TEMPS WILL CONT WELL BLO NORMAL AS THERMAL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO DECREASE AND GRADIENT WINDS TO DIMINISH... ESPECIALLY SW PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE FROST IS PSBL... LOWS FCST IN THE M-U30S... COOLEST SW. LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ AFTER A POTENTIALLY FROSTY START TO SOME AREAS...THE REGION WILL SEE A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS COLDEST AIR SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS STILL ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH MAIN SURGE OF WARMER AIR WAITING UNTIL TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS...AFTER A COOL AND DAMP WEEKEND...STILL WILL BE PLEASANT FEELING. EVEN AS TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL...SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH DEEP HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW SENDING ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL EJECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVERTISED TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING AT LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS STARTING IN SW AREAS TUESDAY SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUES NGT LINGERING INTO WEDS NGT. WITH NO SIG TROUGH TO PUSH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM ENERGY COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW HAVE WENT AGAINST ALLBLEND AND OPTED FOR DRY FORECAST THURS INTO FRI FOR NOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE TUES THROUGH FRI TIME FRAME SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST SPOTS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ003. MI...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...FISHER AVIATION...JT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 438 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012 LMZ043-046-230845- NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI- 438 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS INTO THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE INZ003-MIZ077-230845- LA PORTE-BERRIEN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN 438 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012 /338 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BERRIEN AND LA PORTE COUNTY SHORELINES THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BERRIEN AND LA PORTE COUNTY SHORELINES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-230845- ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI- MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI- WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI- ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY- PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART... GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER... AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE... COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO... BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER... HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION... HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON... ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA... PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA 438 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012 /338 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 IN INDIANA...OHIO...AND MICHIGAN. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1153 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012 INZ005-221615- ELKHART IN- 1153 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL ELKHART COUNTY... AT 1150 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WAKARUSA...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF NAPPANEE... MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... DUNLAP... GOSHEN... NEW PARIS... MILLERSBURG... WATERFORD MILLS AND BENTON... STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. LAT...LON 4171 8579 4151 8567 4147 8602 4157 8605 TIME...MOT...LOC 1554Z 258DEG 34KT 4155 8595
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1200 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM HAIL GOSHEN 41.58N 85.83W
09/22/2012 E0.25 INCH ELKHART IN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
MCSThe Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 7 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:08 UTC.
2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
An off duty NWS employee reported penny size hail fell for about a minute.
An off duty NWS employee reported mostly pea size hail along with a few hailstones ranging from dime to nickel size.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, September 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 406749, 406750.