Hail in North Carolina, May 2, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SMALL AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HELP
GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM...COVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND MT
PISGAH. BEST CHC OF COVNECTION STILL EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NRN
MTNS/FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED SVR POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 1055 AM...GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. CU FIELD WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILL IN ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY CIRRUS UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. THIS SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE RISING
THICKNESSES SHUD LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 90 OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. WARMER
MID LEVELS AND LACK OF FORCING MECHANISM WILL KEEP CONVECTION
LIMITED TO THE MTNS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE THE TRIGGER
AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR WHERE LESS CIN AND LEE TROF WILL HELP. CURRENT
FCST HAS THIS IN HAND...SO MAINLY UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

THE TREND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMER WITH FEWER
STORMS...WITH THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN PREVAILING. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY A BIT TODAY OVER THE CAROLINAS...WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY PUSH A BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPT...AND CONSEQUENTLY
HIGHER BUOYANCY...TO THE NORTH. NOT THAT IT WILL REALLY MATTER. WE
HAVE NO UPPER FORCING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER OUTSIDE OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN... AND FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOW EVEN MORE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. SO...SIMILAR TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS...A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONE OR TWO MAY PUSH OUT OFF THE BLUE
RIDGE...MOST LIKELY N OF I-40...AND DIE BY MID EVENING AT THE
LATEST. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. TEMPS WILL PUSH 90 DEGREES E OF THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MILD NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...HOWEVER A NEW FLY IN
OINTMENT MAY BE IN THE WORKS. THE PAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE HINTED AT
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER LA/MS EARLY THU AND NOW THE OTHER OP
MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO SOME DEGREE. THERE IS LITTLE SFC
REFLECTION NOTED...BUT STRONGER CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE
GENERATED WEST OF THE CWFA THU EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
COULD MEAN MORE CI ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AND MAKE FOR A TRICKY MAX
TEMP FCST THU. THE GFS IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER S/W AND THE HIGH CI THICKNESS...THUS MOS
PRODUCTS DIFFER SIGFNTLY. WITH SUSPECT CONFIDENCE...LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE ACROSS THE CLIMO SITES AND STILL HAVE AROUND 90 MAX T/S AT
MOST NON/MTN SITES. TEMPS WERE WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE WARMER
METMOS WITH THE SW ZONES GIVEN MORE MAVMOS WEIGHT. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH PERHAPS ISOL
CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CAP ERODES AND LFC/S SETUP AROUND 7
KFT. LLVL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AND DEEP LAYERED RIDGING
WILL STILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE AREA.  THERE
IS A BIG DISAGREEMENT BTW THE NAM AND GFS FRI AS FAR AS DROPPING A
FRONT TOWARD THE NWRN ZONES. THE NAM IS MORE S/LY AND ENHANCES THE
FRONT WITH UPPER ENERGY CREATING PROBABLE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWFA. THE GFS ON THE OTHERHAND IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
FRONT AND KEEPS DEEPER CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATL
HIGH...WEST OF THE CWFA. THUS...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
GOING SLIGHT CHANCE MTN TSTMS FRI AFTERNOON. TEMPS FRI STILL LOOK TO
BE RIGHT AROUND 90 F NON/MTNS AND RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM WEDNESDAY...I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY...H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BROAD
INSTABILITY FIELD AND NW TO SE STEERING FLOW MAY DIRECT STORMS
ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN COVERAGE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CWA. I WILL KEEP SCHC POPS ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE 10 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID 80S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS
TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.

EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...A DEEP H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID WEST ON MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY BACK DOOR ACROSS THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAY RANGE FROM 1500 TO
2000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENTS OF A COLD FRONT...WE WILL FORECAST
SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
NC MTNS. COLD FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS THE SFC
LOW TRACK EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH INTO EASTERN TN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE CWA
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW VALUES
MAY APPROACH 1.5 INCHES WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE VALUES. I WILL
MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE AIR MASS...I WILL FORECAST DAY SEVEN 50 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW HIGH BASED CU WILL DEVELOP
THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH CIRRUS CIGS CONTINUING. VERY LITTLE CHANCE
OF TSRA. WIND SHOULD REMAIN S TO SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A NORMAL
DIURNAL RANGE TO SPEED. COULD BE A BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN BR/HZ AT
DAYBREAK BUT CHC TOO LOW FOR NOW.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH BASED CU WILL BE MORE COMMON NORTH BUT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH CIRRUS LEVEL CIGS
CONTINUING. TSRA ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN BLUE RIDGE. THESE
SHUD BE SCATTERED OVER THE MTNS AND REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. LITTLE CHC OVER THE UPSTATE. WIND S TO SW
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A NORMAL DIURNAL TREND IN SPEED. KAVL THE
EXCEPTION WHERE NLY WIND WILL BECOME SLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THU MORN
AND AFTERNOON. COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK ALL BUT KGSP
AND KGMU.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF FOG AND STRATUS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH MORNING AS WELL. APART FROM THAT...MOST OF
THE TIME CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE WEEKEND.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND FORECASTED HIGHS WITHIN 3 DEGREES F...

KGSP
MAY 2ND  90F IN 1959...FORECAST 89F
MAY 3RD  91F IN 1959...FORECAST 89F
MAY 4TH  90F IN 1901...FORECAST 89F
MAY 5TH  91F IN 1934...FORECAST 90F
MAY 6TH  92F IN 1977...FORECAST 89F

KCLT
MAY 2ND  91F IN 1959...FORECAST 89F
MAY 4TH  92F IN 1959...FORECAST 90F
MAY 5TH  91F IN 1955...FORECAST 90F

KAVL
MAY 3RD  85F IN 1965...FORECAST 85F

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
558 AM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510-031000-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
558 AM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE LOCATIONS
THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-031000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
558 AM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
113 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             2 SW FLETCHER           35.41N 82.53W
05/01/2012  E2.50 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   PUBLIC

            SEVERE HAIL DAMAGE TOTALED AT LEAST ONE VEHICLE. HAIL
            FELL FOR A PERIOD OF 10 MINUTES. NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            INTERSTATE 26 AND HIGHWAY 25.

&&

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
130 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             3 SSE LAKE LURE         35.39N 82.19W
05/01/2012  E1.75 INCH       POLK               NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DESTROYED CROPS NEAR HIGHWAY 9 JUST SOUTH OF COUNTY LINE.

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
155 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

NCZ033-501-502-021845-
AVERY-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
155 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CALDWELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 152 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTH OF GLOBE...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
BLOWING ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GLOBE...
  PATTERSON...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3611 8151 3600 8143 3588 8173 3592 8175
      3593 8177 3595 8178 3595 8179 3603 8186
      3613 8171 3613 8155

07