Hail in South Dakota, May 2, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SITUATED OVER THE CWA...WITH A WAVE BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH HAVE BEGUN TO LEAK ACROSS THE CWA
PERIPHERY. A WEAK WAVE WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT THE REST OF
THE CWA...WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE TO WORK WITH. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY AND WEAKNESS OF LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER WITH
DECENT MID LEVEL FLOW CAN NOT RULE OUT THE ODD SEVERE STORM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. PROFILES
ALONG EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MAY MIX OUT FOR A HIGH BASED STORM OR
TWO BUT GENERALLY SHOULD BE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK WAVE MOVES
IN FOR FRIDAY. GUIDANCE LATCHING ONTO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SUGGESTING LESS OF A THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALTHOUGH
THERE REMAINS SOME CAPE TO WORK WITH. SREF SUGGEST LIMITED AMOUNTS
HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN THE MAKING FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID
LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE THE
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
FASTEST AND STRONGEST. NONETHELESS THE COMBINATION OF AN INVERTED
TROF AND INCREASING LLM SHOULD SUPPORT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN POPS
START TO CURTAIL AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
OUT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY
AROUND KMBG/KPIR...AND THEN POSSIBLY LATE TNT AT KABR/KATY.
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EAST AND THUS FOR NOW
WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER OVER THOSE AREAS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
503 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-031015-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
503 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2012 /403 AM MDT WED MAY 2 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA
AND IOWA. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TMT