Hail in North Carolina, March 15, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
SATURDAY AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DESPITE LOWER (MID
40S) DEWPOINTS OVER THE FOOTHILLS...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
EARLIER NORTHERN NC MTN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROMOTE NEW CELL
GROWTH OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS/FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED
MICROBURSTS...WHILE LOW FREEZING LEVELS PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ACTUALLY
ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...AS WESTERLY
FLOW MAY BRING CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE TENN VALLEY WITHIN
DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME/INSTABILITY AXIS AND BETTER FLOW REGIME INTO
THE NC MTNS OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS...WILL
RESULT IN A VERY WARM NIGHT...ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. IN FACT...WITH
THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER
THAN TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE TYPICAL FAVORED AREAS OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ACTIVE ON FRIDAY AS
WELL. SOLID CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE CARRIED AREA-WIDE. ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...WITH WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND LLVL
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING EVEN WITH
A MOIST AIRMASS. ON SATURDAY THE ECMWF HAS MORE RIDING ALOFT WHILE
THE GFS BRINGS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...AND
THE WEAKER EC AND NAM WERE PREFERRED IN HPC/S MODEL DIAGNOSTIC
DISCUSSION. STILL...LIGHT NELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS IT/S WAY ACROSS THE NC
ZONES. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE SAT/SUN TIME FRAME IS
JUST HOW STRONG THAT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE. WITH THE WEAK
UPPER FORCING AND THE ROLE THAT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL PLAY IN
PUSHING IT SOUTH...IT/S DIFFICULT TO KNOW. HOWEVER...WITH UPSLOPE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE NORTH...BUT MAY ONCE
AGAIN HIT 80 OR HIGHER ACROSS THE UPSTATE...NE GA AND THE SRN NC
PIEDMONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD WORK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SAT NIGHT...WITH A
LIGHT E TO SE BNDRY LAYER FLOW SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN
QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS OR FOG...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS
THE DAY BEFORE. I DON/T HAVE THIS IN THE GRIDS YET...BUT IT/S
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. THE AIRMASS MAY DRY OUT A
LITTLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC ZONES. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE AND HAD THE BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST CAPE OVER
WRN NC. THE GFS KEEPS THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE DOWN
OVER THE UPSTATE...NE GA AND THE SW NC MTNS. OVERALL THE AIRMASS
SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE...AND THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND IMMEDIATE
FOOTHILLS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN TIS SOLUTION...HOWEVER...AND
EVEN AREAS WITH LOW POPS IN THIS PACKAGE MAY END UP SEEING A SHRA OR
TSTM ON SUNDAY. AT LEAST MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...ONLY
AVERAGING ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
MOVING EAST.  CONVECTION DECREASES GOING INTO THE NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT.  SOME SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LINGERING
MOISTURE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE COMBINES WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND A 1000.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS VARY AS TO THE SOLUTION IN
THE FINAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A CUT
OFF UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF OKLAHOMA AT 00Z THURSDAY.  THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF LOW AS CLOSED AND LOCATED NEAR ARKANSAS
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BEGINS TO OPEN UP THE LOW AND MOVE IT
TOWARD IOWA.  REMAINS UNCERTAIN ABOUT RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...SEEMS BASED ON LIGHT WIND CONVERGENCE IN MID WEEK NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM WILL AFFECT THAT
AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN MTNS TOWARD KHKY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z. BY 20Z...CB SHOULD BE SEEN AROUND
KCLT AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
ADDITIONAL CELLS POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE TROUGH. COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A TS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ANY AREAS THAT DO SEE A SHOWER OR
STORM WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS...AND TEMPOS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED FOR MVFR AT KAVL/KHKY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST WHILE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SC AND GA...BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE DECREASED INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
UPSTATE PIEDMONT...WHICH IS UNDERCUTTING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THEREFORE...AM BANKING ON HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION FIZZLING
WELL BEFORE IT REACHES THE TERMINALS...AND HAVE OPTED TO EXCLUDE A
CB ATTM. LIGHT SOUTH OR SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHILE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...A SUMMER-LIKE CYCLE
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST...WITH POCKETS
OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 15...

AVL 81 1967
CLT 86 1967
GSP 88 1967

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 16...

AVL 81 1945
CLT 83 1945
GSP 82 2002

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 17...

AVL 85 1945
CLT 90 1945
GSP 85 1945

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-162000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
354 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506>510-
SCZ001>014-019-162000-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
354 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
205 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

NCZ505-506-508-151845-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
205 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MCDOWELL AND NORTHERN RUTHERFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 201 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF MARION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARION...
  GLENWOOD...
  THERMAL CITY...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3580 8206 3562 8183 3559 8183 3558 8181
      3559 8179 3557 8180 3545 8202 3568 8222

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

NCZ056-069-151930-
CATAWBA-LINCOLN-
241 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CATAWBA AND CENTRAL LINCOLN
COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF NEWTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CONOVER...
  NEWTON...
  CLAREMONT...
  MAIDEN...
  BOGER CITY...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3570 8099 3564 8095 3542 8121 3561 8140
      3577 8133

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

NCZ052-053-151930-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-
244 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HAYWOOD AND WESTERN
BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF COVE CREEK...OR 12 MILES
NORTH OF WAYNESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE JUNALUSKA...
  CANTON...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3573 8291 3568 8289 3570 8285 3569 8282
      3570 8277 3569 8270 3545 8281 3560 8317
      3577 8309

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ010-SCZ001-152000-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-RABUN-
311 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RABUN AND WESTERN OCONEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKEMONT...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF CLAYTON...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LONG CREEK...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3491 8347 3488 8311 3464 8317 3468 8334
      3471 8335 3474 8339 3473 8341 3475 8343
      3472 8348 3474 8352

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
314 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

NCZ053-065-152000-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
314 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BUNCOMBE AND NORTHERN
HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR I-26 AT I-40...OR 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...
  BILTMORE FOREST...
  ASHEVILLE MALL...
  FAIRVIEW...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3565 8229 3538 8238 3549 8272 3563 8266

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

NCZ064-065-152130-
HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
427 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHERN HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN HENDERSON COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATION...

BREVARD...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3531 8243 3517 8248 3513 8263 3517 8282
      3535 8278

MOORE