Hail in Ohio, March 15, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
203 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT AS A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP NEAR LAKE ERIE THE WAVERS BACK
AND FORTH THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S ADVECTING INTO AREA CANT SEE TEMPS DIPPING BELOW THAT. FEW
TSRA POPPING UP ACROSS INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING
ORGANIZED BUT CHANCE REMAINS FOR A FEW TSRA WEST HALF OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS DIFFER BUT IN GENERAL LOOK TO SPREAD SCT CONVECTION NE
ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA THE LATTER PART OF THE
NIGHT. THE AIRMASS IN THE WEST COULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE STORM TO OCCUR BUT A LITTLE
BETTER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THU AFTERNOON. THE REAL ISSUE IS
TRYING TO FIND A GOOD FOCUS TO TRY AND NAIL DOWN WHERE THE
CONVECTION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...WHICH IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO
FIND.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME REASONABLY
UNSTABLE THU AND WITH JUST ENOUGH WIND SHEAR THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LIMITED WIND
SHEAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT WOULD SEEM TO BE LARGE HAIL. THE PW'S
ARE ONLY ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SO NOT A BIG FLOOD
THREAT BUT WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY POSSIBLE TRAINING AS
GROUND CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT DIURNAL DECREASE IN CONVECTION FOR THU
NIGHT THEN DAYTIME HEATING ON FRI WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE SCT TSRA...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.

A PUNCH OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT SHOULD CALM
DOWN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE BREAK
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTH WINDS REDEVELOP WEST TO EAST SAT WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE
BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN COUNTIES
AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EAST SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION
OVER MAINLY THE WEST FOR LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT COULD BE TRICKY FOR THE
SNOWBELT LAKESHORE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE FLOW WILL TRY AND COME OFF OF A MUCH COOLER LAKE ERIE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PAVING THE WAY FOR A NICE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT...SO THERE COULD BE A THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MOSTLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL HILLS FROM MARION TO WOOSTER TO
YOUNGSTOWN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY 20 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NW OHIO THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS OCCURRING ON THE NOSE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AWAY FROM THIS MORNINGS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT TO SEE
A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS KEEPING WINDS UNDER 10KT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP ON THU AND MOVE N OF THE
LAKE ERIE ON FRI. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE BUT REMAIN
BELOW 20KT LATE THU AND INTO FRI. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD
SLIP JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE FRI NT AND SATURDAY. THIS WEAK SYSTEM
WASHES OUT EARLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP A PREDOMINANT SW FLOW
WITH PERIODS OF S/SE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...JAMISON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
428 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-151100-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
428 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FROM LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OUDEMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
307 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-150815-
HANCOCK-LUCAS-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-SENECA-WOOD-WYANDOT-
307 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...

AT 300 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.