Hail in North Carolina, July 30, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
219 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THEN
DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
TENNESSEE EARLY TONIGHT AND REACH GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
TUESDAY.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE SOUTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVG ACROSS MAINLY THE S
HALF OF THE CWA TUE. COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING THIS AFTN THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABLILITY AND UPPER FORCING FOR ISOLD-SCT SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY EVE WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW
TONIGHT WITH THE CHC OF SHWRS INCRSNG LATE. AFTER MRNG LOWS WITHIN A
DEG OR TWO OF AVG...EXPECT SOLID CHC POPS INCRSNG TO LIKELY AROUND
DAYBREAK IN THE W ZONES...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ESP THE
MTNS...ESCARPMENT...AND S 2/3RDS OF THE CWA THRU THE DAY. NOT ONLY
IS A SIG VORT LOBE FCST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT INCRSD UPPER LVL
DIVERGENCE...BETTER SHEAR AND CAPES OVER 1500 J/KG THRU THE AFTN.
SPC HAS PUT THE SW CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA TUE AND THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE. DUE TO INCREASD CLOUD COVER AND SHWRS...HIGHS WILL BE
BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A
WEAK NW FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SE U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES/VORTS EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL
TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH VARYING DEGREES OF AFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WX.
WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE NAM SOLUTION FOR SENSIBLE WX...EXCEPT WILL
BLEND IN THE GFS FOR WED.

THE REMANT MCV/SHORT WAVE THAT AFFECTS THE AREA ON TUE IS EXPECTED
TO BE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z WED SO EXPECT THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AS NVA AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE
SET IN. HENCE...WILL ONLY HAVE SOME LINGERING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON TUE NIGHT...BUT
ESSENTIALLY TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. AN
ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE FOR SOME DENSE FOG TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE GREATEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE IT
WARRANTS A MENTION SO WILL INCLUDE IN WX GRIDS.

ON WED...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AREA
AND AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAKING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL. MODEL QPF
RESPONSE IS GREATEST FROM THE GFS OVER EASTERN AREAS WED AFTERNOON
AS UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HENCE...WILL FEATURE SCATTERED
TYPE POPS OVER EASTERN AREAS...WITH JUST ISOLATED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
WED NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING.

ON THU...LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY DRY AND HOT AS DRYER
AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA. ONLY DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN WESTERN NC WHERE ISOLATED POPS WILL BE
CARRIED. USED BIAS CORRECTED GMOS FOR TEMP FIELDS AS IT HAS BEEN
PERFORMED THE BEST OF LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
STARTS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EAST AS
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE SW STATES.  AT 00Z FRI...THE GFS
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MISS VALLEY HEADED OUR
WAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER ON THIS AND THE GFS DAMPENS IT OUT
QUITE A BIT BEFORE GETTING TO US LATE FRIDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT INCREASE AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES EARLY THE NEXT WEEK.  THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW
PUSHING THE FRONT WILL REACH LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY EVENING AND THE
FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
THE SOUNDING COLUMN WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE MOIST AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY MONDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON TAKING THE FRONT TO THE BRISTOL TO NASHVILLE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND PERHAPS MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING IN
SOME DRIER AIR TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU THIS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MAINLY
THIS AFTN AS ISOLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION S AND E OF THE
TERMINAL MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITH LOW CHC ONLY HAVE VCSH IN TAF
ATTM. ENE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT
MVFR FOG AFTER 09Z...THEN INCRSNG CLOUDS AND VCSH BY 14Z AS SYSTEM
APPRAOCHES FROM THE W. INCLUDED PROB30 FOR -TSRA AFT 16Z.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CHC TS AT
KAVL. LGT ELY WINDS ALL TERMINALS...SE KAVL. EXPECT SHWRS TO MOVE
IN/DEVELOP FROM THE W TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...SCT AFTN-EVE TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. MTN VLYS WILL
SEE BEST CHANCE OF MRNG LOW CLOUDS/FOG.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
312 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-311915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
312 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER WANING LATE THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS
MAY INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY GENERATE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY
LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

GAZ018-026-SCZ001-004-302015-
FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-STEPHENS-
339 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN STEPHENS...NORTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 338 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF TOCCOA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE HARTWELL...
  WHITWORTH...

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3443 8309 3459 8336 3474 8323 3456 8291
      3448 8302 3450 8305

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

NCZ052-302030-
HAYWOOD-
341 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 338 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CANTON...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CRUSO...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3563 8281 3557 8277 3556 8278 3553 8276
      3553 8278 3547 8280 3541 8274 3538 8279
      3532 8283 3532 8287 3529 8292 3532 8297
      3535 8298 3559 8296

CSH