Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, July 1, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
905 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXTREME
HEAT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM SUNDAY...MODIFIED 12Z MHX SOUNDING SHOWS CAP HAS
WEAKENED BETWEEN 700 AND 800 MB. THERE IS STILL A SMALL ONE PRESENT
BUT LOOKS LIKE WOULD BE EASY TO BREAK WITH WEAK FORCING. ALREADY SEE
SOME TSRA ACROSS THE N AND EXPECT DECENT CVRG TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY
AS SEA BRZ DEVELOPS AND MAY ALSO SEE SOME ACTVTY APPROACH FROM THE W
ASSOC WITH WEAK SRT WAVE. BASED ON THIS HAVE CHC POPS INLAND WITH
SLIGHT CHC SRN CST. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THREAT AS EXTREME
INSTAB IS INDICATED IN MODIFIED SOUNDING WITH SFC BASED CAPE
6000...MIXED LYR CAPE NEAR 3500. ONCE STORMS INITIATE THEY WILL
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY. WINDEX VALUES OVER 60 KNOTS AND MDPI
VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INDICATE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
GIVEN DGR OF INSTAB LARGE HAIL WL BE POSS DESPITE HIGH FRZ LVLS.

SINCE MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN SHLD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 95 TO 100 DGR RANGE INLAND AND WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH
DWPTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 112..NO CHANGES
TO HEAD HEADLINES.

AS FAR AS THE HEAT SITUATION GOES...THINK THE COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS (INTO THE UPPER 60S) OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FORECAST BY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...AND
SOME MORNING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SLOWING THE RATE OF WARMING OVER
THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAVE OPTED TO SCALE THESE AREAS
BACK TO A HEAT ADVISORY. ALL OTHER AREAS...INCLUDING OUTER BANKS
DARE COUNTY WILL REMAIN IN AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES COULD TOP 110 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER YESTERDAY PER LOCAL BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS AND RECENT TRENDS
IN VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...THINK TONIGHT AGAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE FOR THE THIRD NIGHT IN A ROW. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW ONGOING STORMS IN THE EVENING GIVEN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WEAK FORCING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH.
TONIGHT...A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH AND SEVERAL AREAS OF MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY WILL ROTATE THRU THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF SEE YET ANOTHER CLUSTER OR TWO OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR ALOT OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH A BIT MORE CONVECTION AROUND...MIN TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...IN THE 73 TO 77 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
MONDAY...WITH 850 TEMPS AND LOW LVL THICKNESSES DECREASING JUST A
BIT...AND EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPR 90S INLAND WITH UPR
80S TO LOWER 90S BEACHES....THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 WITH HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR SOME AREAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SRT WAVE CROSSING LATE IN THE DAY WITH
WDLY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE EASTERN
NC OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. UPR RDG WILL RETROGRADE TO THE W THROUGH MID WEEK AS WEAK
TROFFING DEVELOPS ALONG THE CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL STILL REACH THE 90S. BEST FORCING
FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE WED INTO THU AS THE TRF APPROACHED AND
MOVES OVER THE REGION. LATE IN THE WEEK THE TRF BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AS THE RDG TO THE WEST EXPANDS E AGAIN WITH CONT MUGGY TEMPS AND
MAINLY ISOLD LATE DAY STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM SUNDAY...FOG LIFTING WITH MAINLY VFR THIS MORN. SCT
CONVECTION WL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND SOME COULD BE STRONG/SVR WITH
LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS AS
STORM DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND CONT INTO THIS EVENING. SOME CONVECTION
MAY CONT OVERNIGHT BUT SHLD BECOME ISOLD LATE. WL AGAIN HAVE THREAT
OF STRATUS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL LIKELY SATURATED AND
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION. LOW LVLS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM SUNDAY...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY LOWER INIT SEAS AS
ALL SITES IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

PREV DISC...S/SW WINDS RESUMING OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS...ALTHOUGH THAT FLOW COULD STILL BE INTERRUPTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TSTMS AFFECTING THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND AND FAR NORTHERN WATERS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL SEE SOME OCCASIONAL 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT AGAIN SOME 5 FOOT
SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF MOST COASTAL WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN MUCH OF THE TIME WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGH JUST TO THE W. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINATE S/SW WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS THRU MID WEEK. SIMILAR
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION PUSHING BNDRY
THRU REGION ESPCLY AT NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS...THIS
LOOKS MOST LIKELY DURING THE MORN HRS MON AND TUE. LATER WED INTO
WED NIGHT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WINDS INCREASING TO
NEAR 20 KTS BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT GO MUCH ABOVE 15KT. SEAS THRU THE
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET WITH SOME 5 FOOTER POSS OVER THE
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS MID WEEK WHEN WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TABLE BELOW NOTES DAILY
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY JULY 1ST THROUGH MONDAY JULY
2ND...FOR SELECT CLIMATE AND COOP STATIONS. ALL TIME RECORDS ARE
ALSO NOTED.

NEW BERN (KEWN) - RECORDS BEGAN 1948
7/1  -  97 (1990)
7/2  -  96 (1953) ALL TIME JULY RECORD - 106 (1952)

CAPE HATTERAS (KHSE) - RECORDS BEGAN 1893
7/1  -  93 (1957)
7/2  -  90 (1932)  ALL TIME JULY RECORD -  96 (1992)

GREENVILLE (KPGV) - RECORDS BEGAN 1897
7/1  - 103 (1959)
7/2  -  99 (1936)  ALL TIME JULY RECORD - 104 (1977)

KINSTON 7 SE (COOP) - RECORDS BEGAN 1899
7/1  - 103 (1959)
7/2  - 100 (1968)  ALL TIME JULY RECORD - 106 (1926)

MANTEO (KMQI) - RECORDS BEGAN 1966
7/1  -  97 (1977)
7/2  -  93 (1968)  ALL TIME JULY RECORD - 101 (2011)

BEAUFORT (KMRH) - RECORDS BEGAN 2000
7/1  -  89 (2011)
7/2 -   88 (2011)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079-104.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ080-
     081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RF/CQD
AVIATION...RF/CTC/CQD
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD
CLIMATE...DAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
353 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCZ080-081-090>094-098-020800-
BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW-
353 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM THE DEVELOPS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ029-044>047-079-020800-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-
353 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM THE DEVELOPS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ095-103-020800-
CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-
353 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY STORM THE DEVELOPS COULD QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ104-020800-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
353 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM THE DEVELOPS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCZ103-010815-
OUTER BANKS DARE-
325 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY
THROUGH 415 AM EDT...

AT 325 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES WEST OF WAVES...OR ABOUT 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF ENGELHARD...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SALVO......WAVES.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 7548 3540 7548 3531 7551 3531 7552
      3536 7552 3539 7550 3547 7550 3548 7551
      3546 7553 3548 7553 3549 7549 3562 7548
      3567 7550 3566 7547 3555 7545
TIME...MOT...LOC 0725Z 289DEG 34KT 3558 7572