High Wind in North Carolina, December 21 to 22, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM...PNSGSP ISSUED AT 1005 AM INDICATES THAT SNOWFALL
REPORTS ARE IN LINE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM THE NRN NC
MTNS. LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATES THAT LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH FAIRLY HIGH DBZ RETURNS ACROSS JACKSON
AND TRANSYLVANIA. I WILL ADD CHC POPS TO JACKSON AND TRANSYLVANIA
FOR THIS MORNING. THE DECREASING POP AND ACCUM TREND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS ON TRACK.

OBSERVED WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MATCH THE STRENGTHENING TREND IN
THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...12Z GSO SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE MIXED
LAYER EXTENDED UP TO H7...OR 7.5KFT...WITH WINDS AROUND 55 KTS.
LATEST VWP FROM KGSP INDICATED SPEEDS AROUND 30 KTS FROM THE SFC TO
5 KFT...TO AROUND 40 KTS AT 7 KFT. IT APPEARS THAT AFTERNOON MIXING
WILL YIELD EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER...LIKELY RESULTING IN DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT NC
FOOTHILLS. THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT
SHOULD SEE SOLID ADVISORY WINDS.

WAVE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE. I WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SIGNIFICANTLY. THE COMBINATION
OF THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD LLVL THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT A REDUCTION
IN THE HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE DEGREES.

AS OF 645 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. A BRIEF BURST OF
SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY IN THE LAST HOUR SEEN ON RADAR AND IN THE OBS.
BASED ON TRENDS...STILL EXPECTING BEST COVERAGE AND RATES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL HEADLINES/PRODUCTS LEFT AS IS.

AS OF 300 AM...A DEEP LOW PRES SYS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN FURTHER
AS IT LIFTS NE ACRS THE ERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. OVERALL...THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. A TIGHT PRES GRAD AND
STRONG LLVL WIND FIELDS WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP MIXING AND MID LVL
DOWNWARD MOTIONS TO PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACRS THE AREA
TODAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TAPPING INTO 50-60 KTS OF WIND THIS AFTN...ESP IN THE MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES LOOK WELL PLACED. THE
WINDS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO TONIGHT...AS THE FLOW VEERS FROM WNW TO
DUE NW AND 850 MB FLOW INCREASES TO 60-70 KTS WITHIN A MTN WAVE. THE
GUIDANCE HAS WINDS SUBSIDE OUTSIDE THE MTNS IN THE EVENING...BUT I
WILL LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE PIEDMONT ALONE FOR NOW. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE UPR 30S MTN VLYS AND MID-UPR 40S
PIEDMONT WITH THE STRONG MIXING...LLVL CAA...AND AREAS OF STRATOCU
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
CHILLY...DIPPING WELL INTO THE TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND 20S
ELSEWHERE.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM IS SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY ALONG THE
TN BORDER. THE LATEST IR IMAGERY AND MRX/OHX RADARS SHOW INCREASING
COVERAGE OF PRECIP...ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE OF THE
DEEP CYCLONE TO OUR N. THE LLVL FLOW IS STILL BACK TO NEARLY DUE
WEST....BUT SHUD GRADUALLY VEER TO A BETTER UPSLOPE COMPONENT THRU
THE MORNING HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW SHWRS SHUD CONTINUE TO
RAMP UP FROM 09Z TO 15Z...THEN TAPER OFF GRADUALLY FROM MIDDAY THRU
THE AFTN HOURS. THE SRN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE
GENERALLY FROM MADISON COUNTY AND NORTH. SO DOING MY BEST TO GET A
STORM TOTAL SNOW GRID...THE ACCUM IN THE SMOKIES AND HAYWOOD COUNTY
WERE LOWERED...WHILE THE AMOUNTS IN THE NRN MTNS INCLUDING ERN
MADISON WERE ABOUT THE SAME OR INCREASED SLIGHTLY. WITH GENERALLY 2"
ACRS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTY...I ADDED MADISON TO THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY. MOST OF THE TYPICAL NW FLOW AREAS WILL SEE 1-3" OF
SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...VERY STRONG ULVL DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM FCST. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE TRACKING
EAST OF THE AREA WHILE A H5 RIDGE AXIS SWINGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND BRINGS STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE NC MTNS. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A
BROAD AREA OF DEEP DOWNWARD OMEGA...ABOUT 20 MB/S...AFFECTING THE
WRN ZONES IN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. SOUNDINGS AND SIGMA WINDS HAVE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAA BY THAT TIME...BUT VERY GOOD MOMENTUM
TRANSFERS SHOULD KICK IN AFTER SUNRISE AND ALLOW WIND GUSTS IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PERHAPS 50+ KTS
ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN MTNS. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PGRAD LOOSENS AND UPPER SUPPORT WANES. THERE
ISNT A COMPELLING REASON TO MODIFY THE NPW ATTM AND WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT ADJ THIS PRODUCT IF NECESSARY.

THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A VERY DRY ATMOS ENCOMPASSING THE AREA
DURING THE DAY SAT WITH SFC TDS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS. THIS COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS...AT LEAST
METEOROLOGICALLY...ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT WHERE THE
WINDS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN OVERLAP. LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS
THE LLVL TROF MODIFIES IN STRONG INSOLATION AND DEEP ORTHOGONAL MTN
FLOW ENABLES CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE WARMING. THUS...THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MOSGUIDE CAPTURING
THE ENHANCED NON/MTN WARMING THE BEST.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...WHICH
ALLOWS A CONTINUING WEAKENING OF THE PGRAD. A 1023 MB HIGH CENTER
MOVES ACROSS SRN GA DURING THE DAY AND SOME MEASURE OF SHALLOW SW/LY
FLOW WILL HELP RECOVER TD/S A BIT WHILE THE ATMOS REMAINS MOSTLY DRY
EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN CI CROSSING OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS
WERE AGAIN BUMPED UP A COUPLE DEGREES WITH THE HIGHER END GUIDANCE
TO AROUND  OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. MINS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
SAT NIGHT...AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE MLVLS FROM THE WEST LATE SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z
ON MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST
AND A DEEPER LONGWAVE UPPER TROF BEGINNING TO DIG DOWN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO OUR DOORSTEP BY
EARLY WED AND LIKELY ACQUIRE MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES
OVER THE FCST AREA. HEIGHTS WILL RISE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF
LATE THURS AND INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SFC...THE FIRST OF 2 LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING THRU
THE DAY/EVENING. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE ON TUES...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
LVL DEFORMATION SETS UP OVER THE AREA AS PROFILES DRY OUT ACCORDING
TO THE GFS AND CMC MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF STILL DIFFERS QUITE A
BIT WRT MOISTURE PROFILES ON TUES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS THRU THE DAY.
A STRONGER SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND APPROACH
THE CWFA EARLY WED AND LIFT TO THE NE BY EARLY THURS WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DEVIATIONS ON DAYS 6 AND 7... I DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE SENSIBLE FCST. POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY WITH
VALUES MAXIMIZING ABOVE 60% OVER MOST OF THE CWFA FOR MUCH OF WED
AND THEN TAPERING OFF SLOWLY THEREAFTER. THE NC/TENN BORDER ZONES
WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL NW FLOW PRECIP/SNOW ON THURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. HIGHS TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL THURS WITH LOWS CLIMBING ABOVE CLIMO EARLY IN THE
WEEK AND THEN DROPPING AGAIN AGAIN THURS AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THRU THE AFTN.  THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO W
OR WNW AS MIXING DEEPENS TODAY. SOME VFR-LVL STRATOCU WILL LINGER
NEAR THE AIRPORT INTO THE AFTN...OCCASIONALLY MAY BECOME BKN. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET AND RESUME A MORE WSW
DIRECTION...BUT WITH HOLD ON TO SOME GUSTS WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THRU THE AFTN. LLVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BANK UP AGAINST THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE NC MTNS. VFR CIGS LINGER AT KAVL...WITH EVEN A
BRIEF SNOW SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BUT OVERALL...THE OVERALL
SHUD BE VFR. WINDS WILL VEER TO NW IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO GUST.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL ABATE ACRS THE AREA BY SUNDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY BRING RESTRICTIONS WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RH
VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S THIS AFTN...AND WINDS MAY
GUST TO 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...HIGHER IN THE MTNS.
FORTUNATELY...MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVED A GOOD SOAKING RAIN
YESTERDAY TO WET FUELS.

A DRY DAY IS IN STORE SAT WITH SFC TD/S DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WITH NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
LESS THAN 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE HRS OF OVERLAP BTW THE DRY AIR AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 MPH OR 30 MPH GUST ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH HOWEVER...AND
COORDINATION WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS MAY BE NEEDED TO DISCUSS THE
POTENTIAL NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX PRODUCTS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-048>050-
     052-053-059-063>065-501>510.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ035>037-051-
     056>058-062-068>072-082.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-
     048>050.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-051-056>058-062-068>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-221100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-SWAIN-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-MACON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
547 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ052-053-059-063>065-501>510-221100-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
547 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>050-221100-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
547 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1004 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ASHEVILLE               35.57N 82.55W
12/21/2012                   BUNCOMBE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON A CAR ON TUNNEL RD. MOTORIST NOT INJURED.

0930 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NE BAT CAVE           35.47N 82.26W
12/21/2012                   BUNCOMBE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES ON SHUMONT ROAD.

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1154 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE BANNER ELK        36.14N 81.83W
12/21/2012  M60 MPH          AVERY              NC   MESONET

&&

PTANNER