Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, August 2, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION MONDAY...AND LINGERING IN THE VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SMALL/INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT ATTM...SO CHANCE/LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THESE
AREAS. SURPRISINGLY HIGH DCAPES FOR THIS TIME OF DAY WILL YIELD A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR MICROBURSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...INCLUDING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA ATTM...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN THE
GRADUALLY STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.

H5 HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE TOMORROW AS THE SRN PLAINS RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY PUSH TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL SET UP
OVER THE FOOTHILLS. THE NAM GENERATES GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT IN THE AFTN. THE MASS AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE RESULTS IS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THAT
MODEL EAST OF THE MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. EVEN THE SREF IS SHOWING
SOME FAIRLY HIGH 3-HLY POPS. THEREFORE I/VE RAISED POPS INTO THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE I-85 URBAN CORRIDOR FOR TMRW. IT WILL
ALSO BE A HOT DAY WITH MANY FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS WARMING
INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WED...THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKNESS ALONG THE EAST COAST BETWEEN TWO RIDGES
TO OUR EAST AND WEST. EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. FRIDAY LOOKS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR A LARGER NUMBER OF STORMS. THE MODELS SHOW SOME SORT
OF SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS OVER THE MTNS.
ONCE FORMED...THE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY IN THE USUAL MANNER. TEMPS WERE NUDGED
TOWARD A GUIDANCE BLEND...WHICH WAS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FCST. THE WAVE DAMPENS OUT ON SATURDAY BUT MOISTURE IS
DEEPER WITH A MORE SW FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE
IN UPPER DIVERGENCE LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO COVERAGE A
BIT BETTER YET THAN FRIDAY...SO POP WAS RAISED WELL INTO THE CHANCE
RANGE. TEMPS WERE KEPT NEAR THE OLD FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WED...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A DEEP MOIST SW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY FALL SUN INTO MON AS
A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON LATE SUNDAY
AND LIKELY STALL IN OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAVE MENTIONED HEALTHY DIURNAL SCATTERED POPS EACH AFTN/EVENING AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH PW VALUES (OVER 2 INCHES) AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR...OR A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KHKY/KCLT...THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE CLUSTER OF INTENSE
CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EAST OF KHKY...OUTFLOW IS
RESULTING IN SOME BACKBUILDING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. I/M BANKING ON
ADDITIONAL STRONG CELLS FIRING EAST AND SOUTH OF KHKY...SO HAVE
LIMITED THE MENTION TO -TSRA (VFR) THROUGH 7Z. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH KCLT VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ON ITS PRESENT
COURSE... THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL...
BUT ADDITIONAL CELLS COULD FIRE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE OUTFLOW.
EITHER WAY...EXPECT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO TURN WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTINESS AFTER 07Z. ONCE THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT ENDS...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS STRONGLY SUGGEST FOG WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE AT KCLT (UNLESS THEY GET SOME RAIN)...BUT WILL CONTINUE AN
MVFR VISBY FORECAST AT KHKY. WE HAVEN/T HAD SUFFICIENT TIME TO FULLY
ADDRESS THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SO ANY MENTION OF
CONVECTION HAS BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST. WE WILL ADDRESS THIS
WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE.

ELSEWHERE...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST FOG IS VERY UNLIKELY AT THE
PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND ALL RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN
REMOVED. WE ARE ALSO FEATURING A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST AT KAVL...
PREVAILING MVFR WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR. WE HAVEN/T HAD SUFFICIENT TIME
TO ADDRESS THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SO ANY MENTION OF
CONVECTION HAS BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST. WE WILL ADDRESS THIS
WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE.

OUTLOOK...ISLD/SCT AFTN-EVE TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. MTN VLYS
WILL SEE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JDL/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-021900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
248 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

NCZ051-058-020315-
GRAHAM-SWAIN-
1034 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN GRAHAM AND WESTERN SWAIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM EDT...

AT 1030 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CITICO BEACH...OR 19 MILES
SOUTH OF MARYVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SANTEETLAH
  LAKE...TAPOCO...SANTEETLAH AND FONTANA VILLAGE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3537 8401 3541 8403 3545 8399 3548 8392
      3553 8388 3548 8376 3527 8391 3535 8404

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ035-036-502-020600-
ALEXANDER-GREATER CALDWELL-IREDELL-
115 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER...EASTERN CALDWELL AND
NORTHWESTERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM EDT...

AT 114 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF
WINDY GAP TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOVE VALLEY TO 4 MILES EAST OF
ELKVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  KINGS CREEK...
  TAYLORSVILLE...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THEMSELVES MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES...DIME SIZE HAIL COULD OCCUR AS
WELL. EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3600 8132 3604 8121 3603 8107 3606 8099
      3606 8085 3594 8081 3580 8108 3581 8114
      3583 8115 3582 8119 3586 8145 3605 8145
      3607 8140

HG