Lightning Strikes in Nebraska, August 2 to 3, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW MOISTURE
COMING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH (CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS). THE
IMAGERY INDICATED THE MOISTURE PLUME COMING FROM THE MEXICAN GULF
COAST AND OFF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACCORDING
TO THE SURFACE ANALYSIS...THE FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO AND ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THERE
WAS ALSO A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA NEAR VALENTINE WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF NORTH
PLATTE...OGALLALA AND ALLIANCE. SATELLITE DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWED A
PLUME OF 35MM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND LIFTED INDICES OF
-3C TO -6C.  /SPRINGER

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE INITIAL CONDITIONS...THE PRIME AREA OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THAT IS THE LOCATION OF THE MOST UNSTABLE AND
MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE. THE 16Z HOURLY RAPID REFRESH LENDS
CREDENCE TO THAT SCENARIO. THAT SIMULATION INDICATES A CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CROSSING
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA 00-03Z WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80. IT ALSO SHOWS A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ALONG THE
US20 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AS THE FRONT COMES SOUTH
FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN.
IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE.  /SPRINGER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT
SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SATURDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL SATURDAY...AND
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHICH WILL
BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. SOMEWHAT WARMER SUNDAY /HIGHS
NEAR 90/ AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUITE WARM...AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS COLORADO. MAY SEE THE
UPPER RIDGE FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AGAIN BY MIDWEEK...WITH A BIT COOLER
HIGHS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS RETURNING.  /TAYLOR

&&

.AVIATION...
OUR CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT A THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM WILL
FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. IN TURN...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT LBF WILL HAVE A THUNDERSTORM AT THE AIRPORT IN THE
02-04Z TIME FRAME. SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS ALSO INDICATE A
THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM COMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT THERE IS
SOME QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO REACH
VALENTINE. SO...WE WILL INCLUDE ONLY VCTS FOR THE TIME BEING
04-06Z.  /SPRINGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM THAT CROSSED NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS...MAYBE EVEN ENOUGH TO MOISTEN FUELS UP SOME. AS A
RESULT...THE RISK OF LIGHTNING STARTING FIRES HAS BEEN
DIMINISHED...BUT NOT ELIMINATED...OVER THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE
REPRIEVE WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO AND ANY GRASS THAT
HAS NOT RECOVERED GREENNESS WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY. RAINFALL IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE...THE FRENCHMAN BASIN AND THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS
WAS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AND PROBABLY DID NOT GO FAR TO REMEDY THE
DRY FUELS. THOSE AREAS ARE STILL UNDER SOME RISK OF FIRES WITH
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND OTHER IGNITION SOURCES.  /SPRINGER

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE/AVIATION...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
402 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-032115-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
402 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012 /302 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS. OTHER STORMS
ARE FORECAST FOR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING AND MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE
THROUGH MULLEN TO BIG SPRINGS WHERE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THE PRIMARY RISK IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

JRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
502 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

NEZ022-022300-
GARDEN NE-
402 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GARDEN COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM MDT...

AT 400 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LISCO...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF OSHKOSH...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  OSHKOSH...
  DOGTOWN FLATS...
  BLUEWATER BATTLEFIELD STATE HISTORICAL PARK...
  LEWELLEN...
  WINDLASS HILL...
  ASH HOLLOW STATE HISTORICAL PARK...
  HIGHWAY 26 MILE MARKER 100...

SPRINGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     11 NE CHAPPELL          41.21N 102.32W
08/02/2012                   DEUEL              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED SEEING A FUNNEL CLOUD WHICH
            REACHED HALF WAY TO THE GROUND.

&&

KROBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
653 PM CDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TORNADO          10 WSW BIG SPRINGS      41.01N 102.25W
08/02/2012                   DEUEL              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEDGWICK COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTED TORNADO TWO MILES
            NORTH OF JULESBURG MOVING EAST.

&&

MARTIN