Lightning Strike in North Carolina, April 18, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE GULF COASTAL REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH COOLER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND IT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...THE RAIN SHIELD HAS FILLED IN NICELY UNDER THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA REGIONS ALOFT JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHARP UPPER WAVE. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS NOW IN THE WEDGE
SECTOR...WITH NE WINDS LOCKING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S MOST
AREAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENTERING
NRN GA...AND CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA
INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS GIVEN THE FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE. ANY
ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SRN PERIPHERY AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SHALLOW WEDGE LAYER
THERE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN THE FAR
SRN PIEDMONT OR SW MTNS...BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE ERN
ESCARPMENT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES WITHIN
THE CAD REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP DWINDLING LATE IN
THE DAY AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES EAST.

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING TO
ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST. A VERY MOIST BL
WILL PERSIST...HOWEVER...AND E TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TOINGHT. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL
OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT. WILL DECREASE THE RANGE ON DIURNAL
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL
BY THU...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOWING STRONG DRYING AT MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...SFC TO 850 MB MOISTURE NEVER DISSIPATES AND
AND RETURNING SE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDINESS AND
WEAK SFC CAD GOING. WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MAXES BELOW THE
GUIDANCE ON THU...WITH ISOLATED RIDGE TOP CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTN.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE PLAINS THU NIGHT TO
REACH THE MS RIVEY VALLEY BY FRI NIGHT. SHALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN FRIDAY...BUT WITH ANY DECAYING CAD
LAYER GETTING STEADILY PINCHED OFF...AND WITH MORE PIEDMONT
INSTABILITY STARTING TO SHOW BACK UP. MAXES SHOULD RETURN TO A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM EDT WED...THE LATEST GFS CUTS OFF A DIGGING SRN
STREAM H5 LOW CENTER OVER E TX ON SAT...AND THEN MIGRATES IT EWD
ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM THEN LIFTS ACROSS
THE SE MON BEFORE PHASING BACK INTO A DEEP ERN LONGWAVE TROUGH ON
TUE. THIS AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN AND THE
GEFS MEAN...WITH MAINLY MINOR TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A DEEP SRLY FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN GULF
WILL SET UP ON SAT AND INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER. A DEFORMATION
ZONE MAY THEN SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DEEP SOUTH LOW...AND POSSIBLY PIVOT ALONG THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE A SETUP FAVORING HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE MTNS. THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD WRAP
INTO THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTN...ALONG WITH DECENT
SHEAR AS THE SRLY 850 MB JET ARRIVES. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SE PART. INSTABILITY WILL BUBBLE UP AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SE HALF...BUT LIKELY WITHOUT THE ATTENDANT WIND
SHEAR.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...NW FLOW MOISTURE
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH
MON NIGHT. IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER PROFILES WILL GET COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANY HIGH MTN SNOW SHOWERS...BUT A MIX WILL BE ADVERTISED
ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS. DRYING AND SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TUE...BUT WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE SOLID RAIN SHIELD FILLING IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS THE TERMINAL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. ONCE
THE PRECIP GETS MORE ESTABLISHED AFTER 14Z...CIGS SHOULD LOWER
THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE...WITH SHOWERS ENDING BY EVENING. MID LEVEL
DRYING ATOP THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY YIELD
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
EXPECT SOLIDLY NE FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LOW
END GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...A SOLID LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BAND WILL COVER THE MTN
AND FOOTHILL TERMINALS AT ISSUANCE TIME. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA AS WEAK
ELEVATION CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING OVER THE WEDGE LAYER. WILL NOT
ADVERTISE ANY THUNDER FOR NOW...BUT KAND WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE
THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS WILL TRANSITION DOWN THROUGH MVFR AS THE RAIN
SHOWER AREA MOVES THROUGH...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRYING STARTS TO WORK IN ATOP THE ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. EXPECT A STEADY NE WIND AT 10 KT OR
LESS...EXCEPT BECOMING SE AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE ON THU AND
POSSIBLY INTO FRI AS A WEAK WEDGE LAYER PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS BACK INTO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-191000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
514 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS TODAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...MAINLY FROM
GREENWOOD AND ABBEVILLE INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST
THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GERAPETRITIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
442 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             WOODLAWN                35.79N 82.04W
04/17/2012  E2.00 INCH       MCDOWELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 2 INCH HAIL ALONG HIGHWAY 221 NORTH AT
            WOODLAWN.

&&

HG