Dry conditions and southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph allowed a wildfire to spread and burn over 300 acres of marsh near the Saginaw Bay at the Quanicassee River.
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The episode as NWS DTX wrote it up.
Dry conditions and southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph allowed a wildfire to spread and burn over 300 acres of marsh near the Saginaw Bay at the Quanicassee River.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 18, 2:51 PM EST, 9 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 351 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012 .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALTOSTRATUS ALONG LEAD PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IS DRYING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT EMANATES FARTHER AWAY FROM PARENT VORTICITY ANOMALY LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA. AS THE PV MAX/SURFACE LOW LIFTS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAGGED INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT CENTERS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR IS IN ABUNDANCE...12Z DTX RAOB PWAT OF .29 INCH WITH MODEL DEPICTIONS OF SUB SATURATED LAYER OF AIR FROM GROUND LEVEL TO 4 KFT AGL LATER TONIGHT. THAT LOW LEVEL LAYER IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO EVAPORATE ANY DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT SATURATED LAYER/LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE FOR PRECIPITATION IS RAZOR THIN BETWEEN 800-700MB. MOISTURE PROGS FROM A THETA E PERSPECTIVE TONIGHT ARE NOT AT ALL IMPRESSIVE WITH OVERALL COLUMN SATURATION ADVERTISED TO BE FRAGMENTED WITH 700MB MOISTURE OUTPACING THE 850MB RIBBON BY A GOOD MARGIN. WITH THE LOW CHANCE FOR MEASURING OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED TIPPING BUCKET...DID CHOOSE TO BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION MENTION. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BEFORE WARMING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL SET FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MI. A WEAK ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY AS A JET MAX MOVES OVER THE NW CONUS EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH EJECTS A SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY. EVEN ONLY A FEW DAYS OUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND QUITE A BIT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE SHEARED OUT SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. PREVIOUS RUNS TRACKED IT ANYWHERE FROM THE SAGINAW VALLEY DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER. 12Z RUNS HAVE CONVERGED SOMEWHAT WITH A SOLUTION RIGHT THROUGH SE MI...BUT THE GFS HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH. TAKING THE LAST TWO RUNS INTO CONSIDERATION...WILL IGNORE THE LATEST GFS AND GO WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE SYSTEM RIGHT THROUGH SE MI. WHERE IT EXACTLY SETS UP WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHERE THE BULK OF THE QPF FALLS IN ADDITION TO WHERE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SETS UP. LOOKS LIKE DRY SLOTTING COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IF THE LOW FORCES THE WARM FRONT FAR ENOUGH NORTH. BACKED OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY NEAR THE OHIO BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL SHIFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE LOW AS INSTABILITY SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE THOUGH THE EVENT. AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COOLER AIRMASS TAKING HOLD WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME REINFORCED OVER THE EAST COAST AS A WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH PHASES WITH A CUTOFF LOW THAT WAS SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL CAUSE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO AMPLIFY AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE FIRST HALF THE THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER THE WEEKEND PRECIP ENDS ON SATURDAY...THIS RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY INTO NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WEAKEN. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE ON THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE HIGHEST WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON...ESPECIALLY FROM SAGINAW BAY TO HARBOR BEACH. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 227 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012 //DISCUSSION... A WARM ADVECTION STREAMER OF ALTOSTRATUS...AT 8-9 KFT AGL IS WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL AFFECT AREA TAF SITES IN A VARYING CAPACITY WITH A BKN CEILING FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ROBUST S/W AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CARRYING INTO EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ONTARIO THIS EVENING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS BRINGS A TON OF UNCERTAINTY TO RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT. ATTM...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO CARRY IN THE TAF FORECAST. WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SUBDUED. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW WILL KEEP A MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * NONE. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM....DRK MARINE.......CB AVIATION.....CB YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 415 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012 LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-190815- ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 415 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-190815- MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER- ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- 415 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SF YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
Dozens of firefighters battled a marsh fire which ended up burning approximately 335 acres of state land located along Saginaw Bay. No structures or homes were lost.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, April 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 366654.