Lake-Effect Snow in New York, January 2 to 3, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1142 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
BEHIND STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT ACROSS QUEBEC...STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WHILE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
DEVELOPS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AND PRODUCES LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WILL
USHER IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SO FAR ON TUESDAY.
MOST OF THE SNOW WILL END BY TUESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1115 PM...WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT...SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN SAFELY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON...THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND GREATER ROCHESTER AREA HAVE BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO WIND ADVISORIES. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINING HIGH WIND
WARNING /FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY/ AND WIND ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
REASONABLE...AND HAVE BEEN LEFT UNTOUCHED.

CONCURRENT WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS...LAKE LEVELS ON LAKE ERIE
HAVE ALSO FALLEN TO WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...THE LAKESHORE FLOOD
WARNING FOR ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES HAS ALSO BEEN DROPPED...A
BIT MORE INFO ON THE SEICHE EVENT FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING IS
PROVIDED IN THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FURTHER BELOW.

WITH RESPECT TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...ANY COLD FRONTAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY LEFTOVER FROM THE FINGER LAKES
EASTWARD. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...LAKE EFFECT PRECIP HAS FINALLY
STARTED TO GET GOING OFF OF LAKE ERIE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD ENOUGH AIR ALOFT...WITH ONE BAND COMING
TOGETHER ACROSS THE LAKE...AND ANOTHER ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM
THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED AND MERGE TOGETHER INTO A SINGLE BAND ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A BUFFALO TO BATAVIA LINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE
EVER SO SLOWLY SETTLING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING...SO NO REAL CHANGES ARE NECESSARY WITH
RESPECT TO THIS.

THAT IS ALL FOR NOW...MUCH OF THE MID AFTERNOON NEAR TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS BELOW.

LOTS TO TALK ABOUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HERE IS THE BREAKDOWN.

SYNOPTIC...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
LABRADOR BY MONDAY EVENING. IN GENERAL...OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY
SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD NON-LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE FROM
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARPENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MORE ON THAT IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT AREAS WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH.

NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...

OFF LAKE ERIE...
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE
REACHING 250J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 10K FEET BY 12Z MONDAY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE WELL ALIGNED...AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON WIND SPEEDS SOMEWHAT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WIND SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH RESPECT TO BAND
ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. FORECAST PROFILES AND MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOW AND STEADY PROGRESSION SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO TO SOUTHERN
GENESEE COUNTY DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING...THEN INTO THE
BOSTON HILLS AND WYOMING COUNTY...AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE
BY 12Z MONDAY. WITH STEADILY IMPROVING INSTABILITY EXPECT THE BAND
TO GAIN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY ON ITS WAY SOUTH...WITH 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY TO REACH 3-6 INCHES ACROSS
THE MORE DISTANT SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO SUCH AS HAMBURG...OP
AND EAST AURORA...EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING
COUNTIES AND SOUTHWEST GENESEE COUNTY WITH SEVERAL INCHES IN
WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AS WELL. IN THE IMMEDIATE BUF
AREA...EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS NORTHTOWNS...AND 2-4 INCHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CITY INTO THE EASTERN SUBURBS.

ON MONDAY LAKE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH LAKE INDUCED
CAPES REACHING 400J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 11K FOOT EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH WELL ALIGNED CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PRODUCE A
NEARLY IDEAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETUP. A LOOK AT OUR LAKE EFFECT
COMPOSITE ANALOG CHARTS SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THIS EVENT
MATCHING UP VERY CLOSELY TO THE ANALOG FOR A MAJOR CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE
EVENT...WITH MAJOR BEING DEFINED AS 2 FEET OR MORE MAX STORM TOTALS.

GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE ANALOG COMPARISON AND LAKE PARAMETERS...
EXPECT HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE FROM THE DISTANT BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS AT 12Z MONDAY STEADILY SOUTH THROUGH SKI COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN TIER ON MONDAY. THE MOTION OF THE BAND WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND...BUT 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
SHOULD STILL PRODUCE SOME TOTALS OF 8-12 INCHES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
COLD AIR WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO DEEPEN...WITH LITTLE OR NO
LAKE EFFECT THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY LAKE INSTABILITY
RAPIDLY IMPROVES WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO 10K FEET. EXPECT
A DISORGANIZED BAND TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
WATERTOWN...WITH UPSLOPE BEGINNING ON THE NORTHERN TUG HILL AS WELL.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INITIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN
TO MIX IN...WITH A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AFTER ABOUT 3 AM. WITH THE
LATER START AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS...ACCUMS SHOULD BE HELD TO ONLY 1-3 INCHES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

ON MONDAY THINGS SHOULD REALLY CRANK OF ONTARIO WITH LAKE INDUCED
CAPES RISING TO 300J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEAR 10K FEET.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DYNAMIC UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO
LAKE HURON WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES ALIGNED DUE WESTERLY...WITH IDEAL UPSLOPE INTO THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. A LOOK AT OUR LAKE EFFECT COMPOSITE ANALOG CHARTS SHOWS THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THIS EVENT MATCHING UP VERY CLOSELY TO THE
ANALOG FOR A MAJOR TUG HILL EVENT...WITH MAJOR BEING DEFINED AS 3
FEET OR MORE MAX STORM TOTALS.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT THE BAND TO INTENSIFY OVER WATERTOWN
AND POINTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE ROUTE 3 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...THEN SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS THE TUG HILL DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE SHOULD
ALSO BE OCCURRING ON THE TUG HILL EVEN BEFORE THE MAIN BAND GETS
THERE. EXPECT 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN PERSISTENT
BANDS MAY GET 8-12 INCHES DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH 1-2 FEET ON
THE TUG HILL DURING MONDAY.

BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...
CONTINUED STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...LEADING TO NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND VERY DIFFICULT OR EVEN
NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH
THE COLD CORE ALOFT OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM LAKE ERIE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
IN TRADITIONAL AREAS...BOSTON HILLS...CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WESTERN
WYOMING COUNTY...TAPERING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
CATTARAUGUS COUNTY TOWARD OLEAN...WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS EASTWARD
ACROSS ALLEGANY COUNTY.  HARDEST HIT LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 6-12 INCHES OVERNIGHT...WITH 1-6 INCHES ARCHING AROUND
THE MAIN BAND FROM THE SOUTHTOWNS TO ARCADE...BELMONT AND BOLIVAR.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE STRONG WITH BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING TO CAUSE
SOME WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT THEY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY DAYBREAK.

ON TUESDAY...AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED OFF LAKE
ERIE...PRIMARILY CHAUTAUQUA...EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE...AND NORTHWEST
CATTARAUGUS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST WYOMING COUNTIES.

MEDIA - IF THERE ARE ROAD CLOSURES...STRANDED TRAVELERS WILL BE IN
DANGER OF FROSTBITE OR HYPOTHERMIA IF THEY LEAVE THEIR VEHICLES
MONDAY NIGHT.  PLEASE URGE TRAVELERS TO STAY PUT...TAKE EXTRA
CLOTHING...BLANKETS...FOOD...AND OTHER ESSENTIAL SURVIVAL SUPPLIES.

FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AS ALWAYS...THIS IS A MORE TRICKY FORECAST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW.  EXPECT A GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION AT SOME
POINT...POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY...MIGRATING
FROM NIAGARA COUNTY EASTWARD AND SLOWING OVER MONROE COUNTY TO
OSWEGO COUNTY.  WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MONROE TO
NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS OVER
NIAGARA AND ORLEANS...LEAVING LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHERN
ERIE GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES...FOR NOW...WITH LOWEST
CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS FOR BUFFALO EAST TO NORTHERN LIVINGSTON
COUNTY. OSWEGO IS ALREADY UNDER A WARNING...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED AS THE BAND MOVES OFF THE TUG HILL AND FOCUSES SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKE.

MORE SPECIFICALLY THE ONGOING MAIN LAKE BAND OVER THE TUG HILL EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH AND MERGE WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION FOR SNOW TOTALS MAXING OUT OVER OSWEGO COUNTY AND NEARBY
TUG HILL.  CURRENTLY EXPECT 6-12 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH 4-8 FROM
MOST OF MONROE TO NORTHERN CAYUGA AND LESS ELSEWHERE.  BLOWING SNOW
MAY STILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH PRODUCING SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT
SPECIFICALLY MENTIONED IN THE GRIDDED OUTPUT AT THIS TIME.

THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER WAYNE TO OSWEGO TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 6+ INCHES THERE...WITH 3-6 INCHES OVER
MONROE...ONTARIO...AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.  WIND
CHILLS WILL BE NEARING -20-25F EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...POSSIBLY
COLDER IF ANY CLEARING IS REALIZED.  CURRENT FORECASTS PLACE THIS
AREA WELL WITHIN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL SAVE THAT
FOR LATER FORECAST UPDATES AND HANDLE THE MORE PRESSING ISSUE OF
WIND AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW FIRST.

AREAWIDE...SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY BY TUESDAY...AND HIGH SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE MAKE SOME HIGHLY VARIABLE BUT LOCALLY IMPRESSIVE SNOW
AMOUNTS.  THE ABOVE FORECAST AMOUNTS IN THE NEAR-TERM AND SHORT TERM
SECTIONS SHOULD BE REASONABLE ESTIMATES.  STORM TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY ARE NOT CONSERVATIVE...WITH POINT-BASED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2+ FEET SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND OVER 3 FEET
CENTERED ON THE TUG HILL.  THESE AMOUNTS MATCH WITH HISTORICALLY BIG
LAKE EFFECT EVENTS RESULTING FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN.  THESE AMOUNTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN MODEL
FORECASTS AND HPC.  THE MODELS DO HAVE LOWER OMEGA THAN TYPICAL FOR
THESE EVENTS AND HENCE LOWER QPF.  WHILE NOT PUSHING THE ENVELOPE
TOO MUCH...WE ARE FORECASTING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE.  PUBLICLY
AVAILABLE HPC OUTPUT MAY BE TOO COARSE FOR THE LAKE EFFECT NATURE OF
THE UPCOMING EVENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ARCTIC AIR
AND AND INVERSION NEARING 2500FT.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EASILY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY QUITE
A BIT COLDER IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.  TEMPS
AGAIN SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS
ITS PREDECESSOR.  HOWEVER...IT MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
RE-ENERGIZE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH GENERAL
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MOVING IN ELSEWHERE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEK AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE AFFECTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ALOFT BY THIS TIME WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY.  THE GFS HAS NW WINDS WHILE HPC HAS
SOUTHWEST WINDS...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY LAKE EFFECT
PLACEMENT.  THE COLD CORE ALOFT WILL ALREADY BE EAST OF THE REGION
BY THIS TIME WITH AN CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 4500 FT. LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY LOOKS SUB ADVISORY AT THIS DISTANT VIEWPOINT.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE TUG HILL WHICH WILL BY BURIED IN SNOW BY
THIS TIME.  EVEN THE HEAVILY SNOW COVERED AREAS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD WARM UP TO OR ABOVE FREEZING.  ACROSS
AREAS WITH LESS SNOW COVER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE LOW 40S.
THIS SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AREAWIDE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...THERE
WAY TOO MUCH MODEL VARIABILITY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.  THEREFORE
THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN PLACE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VASTLY OUT OF TOUCH WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN OVER THE US.
WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS AND LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY.  DETERMINISTIC INFORMATION PROVIDED IN GRIDDED
FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING WEATHER OUTPUT SHOULD BE USED
WITH CAUTION WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0440Z...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TWO BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW HAVE BLOSSOMED OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH ONE OF THESE
EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE LAKE INTO THE BUFFALO AREA...AND
ANOTHER ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE. THE
NORTHERNMOST BAND WILL AFFECT THE KBUF AND POSSIBLY KROC TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS...AFTER WHICH TIME
WINDS SHOULD VEER FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO PUSH THE CONSOLIDATING
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THESE TWO SITES...WITH CONDITIONS AT
BOTH LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...CONDITIONS AT KJHW/KART WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BY
AROUND 09Z AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND THE LAKE SNOW BANDS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED/INTENSE...WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FURTHER REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN SNOWBANDS. AT KIAG...OUTSIDE
OF SOME POSSIBLE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON...CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GENERAL LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE IN THE LAKE SNOW BANDS...WHICH WILL BE EAST OF THE LAKES
DURING THE DAY...BEFORE MIGRATING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY
EVENING AS THE PREVAILING FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS TO BE COMMONPLACE MONDAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR IN
MORE GENERAL SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...AREAS OF IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE OVERSPREAD LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH STEADY
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE...GALES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE AND GUSTS TO 45-50 KNOTS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO 10 TO 15 FOOT WAVES.

A LOW END GALE WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER MORE
WESTERLY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND ALSO BRING
SPEEDS BELOW GALE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND SUBSIDING WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EXPECTED...THE STRONG WINDS EARLIER THIS EVENING PRODUCED A
SEICHE ON LAKE ERIE...WITH AN PEAK LAKE LEVEL OF 93 INCHES / OR 7
FEET 9 INCHES / ABOVE LOW WATER DATUM NOTED AT THE BUFFALO NOS SITE
JUST BEFORE 630 PM...OR JUST BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE OF 8 FEET. WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...WINDS AT THE SURFACE
ARE NOW DROPPING OFF...AND LAKE LEVELS HAVE RESPONDED BY FALLING TO
AROUND 5 FEET.

WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LAKE LEVELS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SAFELY BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON...THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-
     019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008-012-019>021-085.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ005-006-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ003>005-014.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...JJR/WOOD
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JJR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HITCHCOCK/TMA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

NYZ010-011-030330-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
1028 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019>021-085-030330-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1028 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-030330-
JEFFERSON-
1028 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-008-030330-
OSWEGO-LEWIS-
1028 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ005-030330-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-
1028 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003-004-014-030330-
MONROE-WAYNE-ONTARIO-
1028 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ013-030330-
LIVINGSTON-
1028 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-002-030330-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-
1028 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ030-030330-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
1028 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-030330-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1028 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-030330-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
1028 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1145 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

NYZ019>021-020700-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
1145 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ORGANIZING ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
INTO TWO NARROW BANDS...ONE OVER ERIE COUNTY AND THE OTHER OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER...THE SOUTHERN TIER BAND STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH
OF DUNKIRK INTO CATTARAUGUS COUNTY SOUTH OF COWANDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS LAKE BAND AND ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...ALSO ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW.

IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. WET ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SNOW COVERED AND BECOME VERY SLIPPERY. SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS
WILL ALSO BECOME TREACHEROUS.

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-020700-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1145 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ORGANIZING ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
INTO TWO NARROW BANDS...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE OTHER
OVER ERIE COUNTY...THE ERIE COUNTY BAND STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF
NORTH TONAWANDA TO RAPIDS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS LAKE BAND
AND SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS LAKE BAND AND ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...ALSO ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BUFFALO.

IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. WET ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SNOW COVERED AND BECOME VERY SLIPPERY. SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS
WILL ALSO BECOME TREACHEROUS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1207 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

NYZ003>005-020615-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
1207 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 1 PM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. WET ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SNOW COVERED AND BECOME VERY SLIPPERY. SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS
WILL ALSO BECOME TREACHEROUS. ALSO...STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES OR TOWING A TRAILER THAT CAN
BE PUSHED AROUND BY THE WIND TONIGHT.

NYZ006>008-020615-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1207 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 1 PM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. WET ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SNOW COVERED AND BECOME VERY SLIPPERY. SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS
WILL ALSO BECOME TREACHEROUS. ALSO...STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES OR TOWING A TRAILER THAT CAN
BE PUSHED AROUND BY THE WIND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1211 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

NYZ003>005-020615-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
1211 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 1 AM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. WET ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SNOW COVERED AND BECOME VERY SLIPPERY. SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS
WILL ALSO BECOME TREACHEROUS. ALSO...STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES OR TOWING A TRAILER THAT CAN
BE PUSHED AROUND BY THE WIND TONIGHT.

NYZ006>008-020615-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1211 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 1 AM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. WET ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SNOW COVERED AND BECOME VERY SLIPPERY. SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS
WILL ALSO BECOME TREACHEROUS. ALSO...STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES OR TOWING A TRAILER THAT CAN
BE PUSHED AROUND BY THE WIND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
106 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

NYZ010>012-085-020715-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
106 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

...NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL...SNOWFALL
RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT AND HEAVIEST SNOW
BANDS THROUGH 2 AM. ALSO...ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE STRONGEST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. WET ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SNOW COVERED AND BECOME VERY SLIPPERY. SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS
WILL ALSO BECOME TREACHEROUS.

NYZ019-020-020715-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
106 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

...NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL...SNOWFALL
RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT AND HEAVIEST SNOW
BANDS THROUGH 2 AM. ALSO...ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE STRONGEST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. WET ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SNOW COVERED AND BECOME VERY SLIPPERY. SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS
WILL ALSO BECOME TREACHEROUS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
156 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

NYZ019-020-021000-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
156 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

...NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL...SNOWFALL
RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT AND
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS THROUGH 3 AM. ALSO...ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH TONIGHT.

IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. WET ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SNOW COVERED AND BECOME VERY SLIPPERY. SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS
WILL ALSO BECOME TREACHEROUS. FURTHERMORE...STRONG WINDS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES OR TOWING A
TRAILER THAT CAN BE PUSHED AROUND BY THE WIND TONIGHT.

NYZ010>012-085-021000-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
156 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

...NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF BUFFALO...SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR IN
THE MOST PERSISTENT AND HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS THROUGH 3 AM.
ALSO...ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH TONIGHT.

IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. WET ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SNOW COVERED AND BECOME VERY SLIPPERY. SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS
WILL ALSO BECOME TREACHEROUS. FURTHERMORE...STRONG WINDS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES OR TOWING A
TRAILER THAT CAN BE PUSHED AROUND BY THE WIND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

NYZ006>008-020800-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
157 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 3
AM. IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH TONIGHT.

IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. WET ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SNOW COVERED AND BECOME VERY SLIPPERY. SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS
WILL ALSO BECOME TREACHEROUS. ALSO...STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES OR TOWING A TRAILER THAT CAN
BE PUSHED AROUND BY THE WIND TONIGHT.