Winter Weather in Illinois, January 2, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
520 AM CST MON JAN 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CST MON JAN 2 2012

00Z MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REST OF THIS WEEK THEN
DIVERAGE A BIT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN ON THE
ECMWF MODEL IN THE EXTENDED WHICH GENERALLY KEEPS CENTRAL IL DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A BLUSTERY WINTER DAY EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BEEFED UP THE LOW CLOUD COVER
TODAY AND INCREASED THE WINDS A BIT HIGHER WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH. EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS STRONG AND DEEPENING
986 MB ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE STRONG
1046 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WY. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER IL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS BY SUNSET WHILE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO 980 MB
INTO NE QUEBEC. A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER
MS VALLEY INTO IL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTS EAST OF IL
DURING THE EVENING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS NE OF A QUINCY
TO SPRINGFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON LINE EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND BY MIDDAY AS POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY. COULD STILL
BE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER EASTERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS EVENING. STRONG NW
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH TODAY (A FEW SPOTS
FROM BLOOMINGTON/NORMAL NE COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 MPH) TO
DIMINISH DURING TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY SHY OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY (SUSTAINED OF 30 MPH OR MORE FOR AN HOUR OR MORE
AND/OR WINDS GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR STRONGER). NEARLY STEADY TEMPS TODAY
FROM 25 TO 30F WITH COOLEST READINGS FROM I-74 NE WHERE MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. COLD LOWS TONIGHT FROM LOWER TEENS IN CENTRAL
IL AND MID TEENS IN SE IL.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF IL BY TUE WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY BY DAWN TUE AND OVER
IL BY NOON TUE. THIS TO BRING AMPLE SUNSHINE TUE ALONG WITH
LIGHTER WINDS BUT SEASONABLY COLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S WITH MILDER READINGS FROM SPRINGFIELD SW. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST OF IL TUE NIGHT AS A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THIS TO ONLY
BRUSH AREA WITH SOME PASSING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY FROM I-74 NE WHILE
ITS LIGHT PRECIPITATION STAYS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

EXPECT A NICE WARM UP DURING 2ND HALF OF WORK WEEK WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SE STATES. LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUNSET
FRI AND WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 55F.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT SE THROUGH IL FRI NIGHT AND COMES
THROUGH DRY WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY COOLING THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50F FAR SE. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE UPPER 30S CENTRAL IL AND LOWER 40S SE IL. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH DISTURBANCES PASSING
NORTH AND SE OF IL WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ECMWF MODELS KEEPS ITS QPF
SE OF IL FROM THE OHIO RIVER SE.

HUETTL

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 515 AM CST MON JAN 2 2012

INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS
DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. LOW VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS WERE PREVALENT TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND EXPECT THAT TO OCCUR OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE
AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
RATHER STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTN HOURS WITH MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 4500 FEET...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE STORM PULLS WELL OFF TO
OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WHAT CLOUDS WE DO SEE TODAY
SHOULD DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SMITH
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
550 AM CST MON JAN 2 2012

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-062-066-067-071-072-031200-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLAY-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-
EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-
SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
550 AM CST MON JAN 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES TODAY
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ063-068-073-031200-
CLARK-CRAWFORD-LAWRENCE-
550 AM CST MON JAN 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WIND
CHILLS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE WABASH RIVER IN CRAWFORD COUNTY SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMITH