Starting on Wednesday the 17th and then peaking on Thursday the 18th, South Central Nebraska experienced its overall windiest two-day period in several years. Blowing out of the northwest on both days, at least minor visibility restrictions due to blowing dust were common, and a few wildfires were sparked including a rather large one on the 17th in western Fillmore County.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Starting on Wednesday the 17th and then peaking on Thursday the 18th, South Central Nebraska experienced its overall windiest two-day period in several years. Blowing out of the northwest on both days, at least minor visibility restrictions due to blowing dust were common, and a few wildfires were sparked including a rather large one on the 17th in western Fillmore County.
Focusing on the 17th, the daytime hours featured several hours of sustained speeds generally 30-35 MPH and frequent gusts of at least 40-50 MPH. The highest measured wind gust of the day at automated airport sites, 61 MPH, occurred at Central Nebraska Regional Airport in Grand Island, with a few other peak gusts including 53 MPH at York and Ord and 51 MPH at Hastings. These intense winds were driven by deep mixing within a large surface pressure gradient between a 984 millibar low in northern Minnesota and a 1026 millibar high centered in the Northern Intermountain states. The combination of these strong winds, very dry vegetation from drought conditions and afternoon relative humidity values plunging between 15-20 percent across much of the area resulted in critical fire danger. Although a few smaller fires were reported within the 24-county area on this day, by far the largest wildfire erupted in western Fillmore County near Sutton shortly after 3 PM CDT. Over the course of about four hours, 12 rural fire departments battled this fire as it consumed a corridor of farmland estimated at 3,500 acres along with several outbuildings and two unoccupied homes.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 17, 12:27 PM CST, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
127 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAF. THE TAF PERIOD WILL SEE PERIODS OF INTENSE
NORTHWEST WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASING
DURING THE EVENING. THURSDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF INTENSE
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH COMMON.
CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
*** EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BUFFET S-CENTRAL NEB AND
N-CENTRAL KS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ADDING
TO THE THREATS ***
ZFP/AFM/PFM/NPW/HWO HAVE ALL POSTED.
HEADLINES...
TODAY: MOVED UP WIND ADVISORY START TIME TO COINCIDE WITH PACKAGE
ISSUANCE AS WE'VE ALREADY SEEN 43 KTS AT LXN AND 41 AT HDE/EAR.
RFW CONTINUES AS POSTED FROM 4 PM/TUE PACKAGE. GIVEN DANGER FOR
WILDFIRES...INCLUDED AN IMPACT STATEMENT IN NPW TO RAISE
ADDITIONAL AWARENESS.
THU: HWW/ADVISORY/FIRE WX WATCH CONTINUE AS POSTED FROM 4 PM/TUE.
PATTERN: OVER THE PAST WEEK...A MAJOR RECONFIGURATION OF LONGWAVE
HGT ANOMALIES OCCURRED OVER AK/ERN PAC. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
REVERSAL FROM A +EPO TO A -EPO. THE TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT BETWEEN LOW
PRES OVER THE GULF OF AK AND BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF CA HAS
RESULTED IN A STRONG 170 KT JET.
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE MOVING THRU
THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY THIS MRNG...AT THE LEADING EDGE/LFQ OF THE
JET WHICH HAS SPILLED INTO THE NW. SFC LOW IS 984 MB OVER THE SASK-
MANITOBA BORDER! FURTHER AMPLIFICATION WILL RESULT IN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE MIDWEST.
AFTER 2 DAYS OF FANTASTIC INDIAN SUMMER WARMTH...REALITY RETURNS
TODAY.
EARLY THIS MRNG: THE FIRST PULSE OF BIG WIND OCCURRING IN POTENT
CAA. HIGH-BASED SHWRS MAY ALSO AID IN DOWNWARD TRANSFER. PRES
RISING RAPIDLY BEHIND FRONT.
CLEARING SKIES TODAY BEHIND DEPARTING TROF WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC
DESCENT.
TEMPS: THEY'VE BEEN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT! GRI WAS STILL 69 AT
MIDNGT. LXN EVEN POPPED UP TO 73 WITH FROPA AT 635Z. HIGHS TODAY
ARE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE /58-66F/. THIS IS
JUST A COUPLE DEG ABOVE OUR PREVIOUS FCST. AFTER INITIAL DROP
BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS HOLD STEADY THIS MRNG AS STRONG CAA
FIGHTS INSOLATION. AFTER 15Z...TEMPS PROBABLY ONLY RISE ABOUT 8F.
VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TODAY AND TOMORROW! 40-45 MB BETWEEN MIDWEST
LOW PRES AND THE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE W.
WIND: MAX GUST VIA BUFKIT TRANSFER TOOL IS 46 KTS TODAY AND 54
TOMORROW. MULTIPLE PLAN VIEW/CROSS SECTION/STATISTICAL TOOLS
SUGGEST OUR HEADLINES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. WE SAW 18Z MAV HAD
SUSTAINED 39 KTS AT GRI 15Z/THU! THIS TWO-DAY EVENT COULD RESULT
IN POWER OUTAGES FROM DOWNED TREES/POWER LINES. SPOTTERS...PLEASE
RELAY ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE TO THE NWS /DOWNED TREES...ROOF
DAMAGE...PEALED OFF SIDING ETC/.
TONIGHT: M/CLEAR AND CONTINUED BLUSTERY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE FROM THE E. LOW TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH A BIAS
CORRECTION /34-41F/. THIS FAVORS CONSIDERABLY WARMER MAV TEMPS. 00Z
MET HAS 30 AT GRI WHILE MAV HAS 41. OUR FCST IS MUCH BETTER
CLUSTERED WITH THE SREF PLUME OUTPUT. THE METMOS IS AN EXTREME COLD
OUTLIER.
SKY: LOOKING LIKE A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THU-FRI...FROM CLOUDY E TO CLEAR W. AM CERTAIN WE ARE NOT
CLOUDY ENUF N/E OF GRI. EXPECT LATER GID FCSTS WILL BE CLOUDIER AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
THU: CURRENTLY ENVISION P/CLOUDY ARAPAHOE-STOCKTON TO M/CLOUDY
GREELEY-FULLERTON-YORK. CAN SEE US EVENTUALLY INCREASING POPS AS
A FEW WRAP-AROUND SHWRS COULD SKIRT OUR FAR NE COUNTIES. MULTIPLE
MODELS HAVE .01 QPF. 03Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01 IN 12 HRS ARE
AS HIGH AS 50%. FOR NOW HAVE COLLABORATED A 20% POP WITH NEIGHBORS.
LATER FCSTS COULD BE COOLER CONTINGENT UPON CLOUD COVER. WE'VE NOTED
CONSENSUS OF 2M TEMPS IS 49-60F. FOR NOW WE'VE GONE WITH CONSENSUS
OF ALL GUIDANCE /51-62F/ AS MILDER MOS TEMPERS THE CHILL FROM 2M
TEMPS. TEMPS 10F BELOW NORMAL.
FIRE WX: WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT. CURRENT FCST OF RH SUGGESTS
THIS MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY BUT PROBABLY DOES NOT
CONVERT TO A HEADLINE. THERE'S STILL TIME TO SEE HOW CLOUD COVER
EASES THE THREAT.
THU NGT: TEMPS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO QUESTIONABLE CLOUD COVER.
FOR NOW LOW TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW A LOT OF CLOUDS N/E OF GRI.
FRI: SUNNY. TEMP CHILL EASES AS WE PROBABLY END UP ONLY 5F BELOW
NORMAL. BLUSTERY TO START BUT WINDS DIMINISH.
FRI NGT: MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ON TEMPS AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS E AND LIGHT
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. PREFERENCE IS FOR COLDER MOS...BUT WENT 34-42F
FOR NOW WHICH IS CONSENSUS OF 2M TEMPS. M/CLEAR AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS
SUGGEST 3-5F COLDER.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
VERY PLEASANT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 68 TO 75. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
COULD ULTIMATELY SEE THEM BEING BUMPED UP A BIT AS WELL.
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH WARM SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE WARM AND DRY
FORECAST IS HIGH.
SUNDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS BOTH BRING A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
INTO OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY. THIS MIGHT
KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF OUR HIGHS...BUT AM REALLY NOT EXPECTING
THIS FRONT TO DO MUCH TO TEMPERATURES AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SIMILAR HIGHS TO SATURDAY. IF THE FORECAST ENDS UP BEING OFF WITH
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IT WOULD PROBABLY BE OFF BY BEING A TOUCH TOO
WARM. THE GFS IS ALSO TRYING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH KANSAS. THE
ECMWF ALSO INDICATES A SIMILAR SHORTWAVE BUT IS DRY. CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE THAT A DRY FORECAST IS THE WAY TO GO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH OUR AREA POSITIONED UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS IS TYPICALLY A WARM PATTERN FOR US DESPITE THE COOLER MODEL
GUIDANCE. WILL CARRY THE COLLABORATED COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE THESE HIGHS BEING RAISED AT SOME POINT IN THE
FUTURE. DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH NOT A SLAM DUNK...IS STILL THE LIKELY
BET AND WILL KEEP THE PERIOD DRY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064-072>077-082>087.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ049-063-064-
072>077-082>087.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ060-072>074-082>084.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ039>041-046>048-060>062.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 249 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 181200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 249 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE DANGER EARLY THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT ON THURSDAY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO MINDEN TO OSCEOLA NEBRASKA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WIND MESSAGES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO FRANKLIN NEBRASKA....TO BELOIT KANSAS...WHILE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FURNAS...HARLAN...PHILLIPS AND SMITH COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE KANSAS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE)
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1203 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1011 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ORD 41.60N 98.93W
10/17/2012 M53 MPH VALLEY NE ASOS
PEAK WIND GUST SO FAR TODAY.
1129 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE GRAND ISLAND 40.96N 98.31W
10/17/2012 M55 MPH HALL NE ASOS
PEAK WIND GUST SO FAR TODAY.
1122 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HASTINGS 40.59N 98.39W
10/17/2012 M51 MPH ADAMS NE ASOS
PEAK WIND GUST SO FAR TODAY.
&&
REEDPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
146 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0135 PM NON-TSTM WND GST YORK AIRPORT 40.90N 97.62W
10/17/2012 M53 MPH YORK NE AWOS
PEAK WIND GUST SO FAR TODAY.
&&
REEDThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust of 61 mph occurred at the Central Nebraska Regional Airport in Grand Island, NE.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, October 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 412954.