Heavy Snow in Montana, November 24, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST SAT NOV 24 2012

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES.
MODELS ARE NOT IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DETAILS OF THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCES BUT ALL AGREE THAT THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER AS OF 3 AM MST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH CUT
BANK AND HAVRE IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 6 AM AND GREAT FALLS AND
LEWISTOWN BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BE NEAR A LINE FROM LIVINGSTON TO NORTH
OF HELENA AT 5 PM. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER JET
WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
THE MAIN WEATHER DISTURBANCE SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MOUNTAINS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MORE SNOW SUNDAY. AS THE MAIN
WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR A DRYING
TREND. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECT THE AREAS NEAR AND A
LITTLE SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 2 TO SEE MAINLY SNOW TODAY WHILE LOWER
SOUTHWEST VALLEYS SEE MAINLY RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR ALL
LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
FOR HIGHLIGHTS WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND EXPECT TO LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRE AT 5 AM. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE BUT HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THEIR AREAL COVERAGE. BLANK

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A SLOW
WARMING TREND AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. ON THURSDAY...THE
PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT TO A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...RESULTING
IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
PLAINS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DO LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OVER THE PLAINS. FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MANY LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...OBSCURING MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN THE BOZEMAN AREA...WHILE LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH SHOULD SEE
THE PRECIP END DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  26  36  22 /  50  40  60  20
CTB  36  20  32  15 /  40  30  60  20
HLN  42  27  35  18 /  50  40  40  20
BZN  44  28  37  14 /  60  60  50  20
WEY  35  24  29   5 /  60  70  80  30
DLN  44  28  34  11 /  40  50  40  10
HVR  37  19  28  13 /  20  10  50  20
LWT  48  23  32  16 /  50  50  60  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST MONDAY NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT...SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST MONDAY BEAVERHEAD...
BROADWATER...CASCADE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK...
CHOUTEAU...EASTERN GLACIER...FERGUS...GALLATIN...JEFFERSON...
JUDITH BASIN...MADISON...MEAGHER...TOOLE.

&&

SHORT TERM...BLANK
LONG TERM...BRUSDA
AVIATION...BRUSDA

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
534 AM MST SAT NOV 24 2012

MTZ009-010-044-048-251245-
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-TOOLE-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
534 AM MST SAT NOV 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM MST
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MTZ011-045>047-049-251245-
HILL-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-EASTERN TETON-
534 AM MST SAT NOV 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MTZ008-012>015-050>055-251245-
BEAVERHEAD-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-
MADISON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
534 AM MST SAT NOV 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH 1 AM MST MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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