The Elbow Pass Complex is comprised of five different lightning ignitions from July 12 through July 31. These fires have merged into one fire, the Elbow Pass Complex: Triple Divide Fire, Rapid Creek Fire, Elbow Pass Fire, and Bar Creek Fire.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.
The Elbow Pass Complex is comprised of five different lightning ignitions from July 12 through July 31. These fires have merged into one fire, the Elbow Pass Complex: Triple Divide Fire, Rapid Creek Fire, Elbow Pass Fire, and Bar Creek Fire. The fires are generally located 25 miles west southwest of Augusta, Montana. The Falls Point fire is south of the Complex. All are located in inaccessible terrain in heavy fuels. The fires are in the Bob Marshall and Scapegoat Wilderness Areas and are on three forests; The Flathead, Lolo and Lewis & Clark. As of September 6, 2012, the fire has burned 21,069 acres.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 9:35 PM MST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 1035 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012 UPDATED AVIATION .UPDATE... EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DISSIPATING QUICKLY ACROSS OUR REGION WITH JUST A FEW CELLS IN WESTERN TETON COUNTY THE ONLY ITEM OF NOTE AT THIS TIME. RADAR STILL INDICATING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING IN VARIOUS DIRECTIONS THROUGH TETON/CASCADE/LEWIS & CLARK COUNTIES SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT ONE OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TRIGGER A SMALL STORM OVER THE NEXT HOUR BUT PROBABILITY FOR THAT IS QUITE LOW. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCES OF PRECIP DOWNWARD IN MOST AREAS BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST MODELS STILL ON TRACK IN SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENING WITH REDUCED AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW. WARANAUSKAS && .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND HAS HELPED INITIATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST STORM ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AT THIS TIME WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AND LI VALUES TO -3. SOUTHWEST MONTANA IS ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE EAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HI-LINE. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN VERY HIGH AND THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD END LATER THIS EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE. 500 MB HEIGHTS REBOUND ON THURSDAY AND WITH IT...THE HEAT RETURNS. BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND STARTS TO ERODE THE UPPER RIDGE. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH ON FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON READINGS CONTINUING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. EMANUEL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEGRADE LATER FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOOKS TO PUSH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTO MONTANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES SO HAVE RAISED POPS SOME OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE LOOKS TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME DRY LOCATIONS TO SEE MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION AS OF NOW. OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL SHIFT LATER SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND THE REGION EVENTUALLY COMES UNDER A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN HOW THEY HANDLE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW AS ITS EARLIER RUN AND NOW IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN DIVING THE UPPER LOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY SEVERAL DEGREES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON PRECIPITATION DETAILS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEY DO PUT MORE EMPHASIS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA SO HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT REGION SLIGHTLY. BLANK && .AVIATION... UPDATED 0500Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING AND BESIDES A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME DEVELOPING CU THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA AND OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MLV && .FIRE WEATHER... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS THOSE OF TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. FOR NOW WILL PLACE A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. MPJ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 60 95 60 94 / 20 10 0 20 CTB 55 92 55 89 / 20 10 10 20 HLN 59 95 60 95 / 20 0 10 20 BZN 51 93 53 94 / 30 10 10 20 WEY 41 84 42 83 / 20 10 10 30 DLN 51 92 54 90 / 30 0 0 20 HVR 60 96 61 97 / 20 10 10 10 LWT 57 89 58 90 / 30 10 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT GALLATIN...MADISON... MEAGHER. && WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 435 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012 MTZ015-054-055-121200- MADISON-MEAGHER-GALLATIN- 435 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MEAGHER COUNTY. SCATTERED WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTING STRIKES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WINDS COULD POSE A CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MTZ008>014-044>053-121200- BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL- CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-TOOLE- LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT- EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER- 435 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
746 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
MTZ011-120230-
HILL MT-
746 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HILL COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM
MDT...
AT 742 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 27 MILES NORTH OF GILDFORD...OR 36 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HAVRE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF NORTHERN HILL COUNTY.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 4889 10973 4864 11015 4900 11061 4901 11059
4901 10990
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 306DEG 14KT 4894 11015
MLV1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Elbow Pass Complex is a wildfire group comprised of five different lightning ignitions from July 12 through July 31, 2012.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 397913.