Flash Flood and Damaging Winds in Arizona, July 12, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST THU JUL 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO SURPRISES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO HEAT UP THROUGH THE DECAYING DEBRIS CLOUD. MUCH BETTER
SOLAR INSOLATION IN FAR EASTERN AREAS BUT ALSO NOT AS WET AND 12K
KTUS SOUNDING WAS SHOWING H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -5C...A TOUCH WARMER
THAN YOU WANT FOR GOOD CONVECTION. SO FAR THIS HAS PROVED FAIRLY
ACCURATE AS OF 2 PM WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF TUCSON METRO AREA. THE NICE MOISTURE GRADIENT THROUGH
EASTERN PIMA...SANTA CRUZ AND WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY (GOES SOUNDER
ESTIMATES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.6 RANGE NEAR EASTERN PIMA DOWN TO ABOUT AN
INCH IN NEW MEXICO) HAS INDEED BEEN A FOCUS FOR INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS EXPECTED...BUT MODEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED DRYING IN EASTERLY FLOW HASN'T BROUGHT MUCH MORE TO
VALLEY LOCATIONS THAN RECENT DAYS.

AS THE RIDGE PHASES EASTWARD WE SHOULD SEE MORE COVERAGE THROUGH
EASTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. STILL EMPHASIZING WESTERN
AREAS FRIDAY...BUT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER...THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY STILL SEE RELATIVELY
WARM MID LEVELS AND WEAKER FLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.

STILL THINKING THAT LARGE SCALE FEATURES WILL MAKE WAY FOR STRONG
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDER THE RIDGE IN AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK. LONG FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH
INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL WITH SCT TSRA/SHRA
DEVELOPING MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF A KFHU...TO KTUS...TO KCGZ LINE.
WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE VICINITY OF
STRONGEST TSRA. DIMINISHING TSRA CHANCES AFT 13/05Z AND IMPROVING
CEILINGS. SELY/SLY SURFACE WIND AT 10-15 KTS THRU 13/02Z...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 13/04Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
STRONG...ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG HEATING...AND MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 AM MST THU JUL 12 2012

AZZ503-504-506-507-510>515-131600-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
850 AM MST THU JUL 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME OUTFLOWS PUSHING INTO VALLEY LOCATIONS LATER.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS IN INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ501-502-505-131600-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
850 AM MST THU JUL 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME STORMS ALONG WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS IN INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ508-509-131600-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
850 AM MST THU JUL 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS IN INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON