Extreme Cold in Minnesota, February 11, 2012

Name: Extreme Cold in Minnesota, February 11, 2012
Start: 2012-02-11T00:00
End: 2012-02-11T09:21
Location: Minnesota

February 11, 2012 · NWS FGF · 6 events in 6 counties and zones

Surface high pressure settled over the central Dakotas in the early morning hours of the 12th, with morning lows dipping into the 10 below to 20 below zero range. Along with steady northwest winds around 10 mph, wind chills ranged from 30 below to 35 below zero over the snow pack of northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 10, 9:54 PM CST, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 10, 9:54 PM CST, 2 hours 6 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
954 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER IA AND A SECONDARY
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASK. SASK SHORT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SD
SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER NORTHERN SASK WITH CIRRUS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.

COLDEST AIR ALOFT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS ALOFT
FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT AND SAT. ALSO AT THE SAME TIME DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL RAISE TEMPS A BIT.

WINDS WILL STAY UP FOR TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
SO WILL KEEP COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 231 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012/
KIND OF A BROKEN RECORD DEALING WITH TEMPS WIND AND WIND CHILLS.
WILL FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND STEADY NORTH WINDS REMAIN OVER THE FA.
THE MID FEBRUARY SUN IS WORKING ITS MAGIC ON THE BARREN BLACK
FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS OUT THERE
AFTER THE COLD START. TREED AREA OF MN ALSO SEEING NICE RECOVERY
WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10F NOW. SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE FA TONIGHT WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THAN MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY. MAIN RESULT OF THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE THAT THE STEADY WINDS WILL REMAIN INTO TONIGHT. ALSO
DEALING WITH THE SECOND NIGHT UNDER/CLOSE TO THE SFC HIGH SO ALSO
JOINED NEIGHBORING OFFICES IN LOWERING TEMPS TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF ABOVE SAID FACTORS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF
EXTREME COLD AND WILL ISSUE A WARNING FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE FA.

SAT-MON...COLDEST 850MB TEMPS ARE OVER THE FA TODAY AT AROUND -22C
AND THESE DO MODERATE SLOWLY INTO SAT. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN
AGAIN ON SAT AND THEREFORE HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY OR NEARLY THE SAME. DEALING WITH THE SAME SCENARIO SAT NIGHT
AS THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. HOWEVER WEAK TEMP RECOVERY CONTINUES
AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. HIGHS SHOULD FINALLY START TO INCH UP
TOWARD 20F ON SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER 20S BY MON.

LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRI)...
MODELS AGREE IN SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT THOUGH IN TIMING OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY THROUGH NORTHERN STREAM.  ANY WAVE PASSAGE
DOES LOOK WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION
AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AT LEAST
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MORE
LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL MAN. MVFR CIGS MAY BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES SAT. OTHERWISE SOME HIGH CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST SAT. CLEAR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-039-053-054.

MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

HOPPES

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 10, 3:02 PM CST, 8 hours 58 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
302 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-112115-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
302 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

...EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND ALL OF THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MINNESOTA FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIND CHILL READINGS WILL TO 30 BELOW TO 40 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

6 extreme cold/wind chill. Local standard time, as filed.

Extreme Cold/Wind Chill, Roseau

When: February 11, 12:00 AM CST to 9:21 AM CST
Where: Roseau forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 48.775, -95.811 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme Cold/Wind Chill, West Marshall

When: February 11, 12:00 AM CST to 9:21 AM CST
Where: West Marshall forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 48.358, -96.368 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme Cold/Wind Chill, East Marshall

When: February 11, 12:00 AM CST to 9:21 AM CST
Where: East Marshall forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 48.358, -96.368 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme Cold/Wind Chill, West Polk

When: February 11, 12:00 AM CST to 7:16 AM CST
Where: West Polk forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 47.774, -96.402 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme Cold/Wind Chill, Pennington

When: February 11, 12:00 AM CST to 7:16 AM CST
Where: Pennington forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 48.066, -96.037 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme Cold/Wind Chill, Red Lake

When: February 11, 12:00 AM CST to 7:16 AM CST
Where: Red Lake forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 47.872, -96.095 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Extreme Cold/Wind Chill: Temperatures or wind chills at or below the local warning criteria, or cold that caused deaths.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Minnesota in 2012 Every state in 2012 This day in weather history Warnings in Minnesota, February 2012

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 357016, 357017, 357018, 357019, 357020, 357021.