A broken area of showers and thunderstorms moved across Central Lower Michigan, producing gusty winds in some coastal locations.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A broken area of showers and thunderstorms moved across Central Lower Michigan, producing gusty winds in some coastal locations.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 22, 7:11 PM EST, 39 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 811 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT STRETCHES FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST BACK INTO ALBERTA CANADA...WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES AGAIN TODAY...BREAKING A COUPLE MORE RECORDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETREATING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 LATE AFTERNOON HEATING AND LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...FINALLY ENOUGH TO POP A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE SW COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW MORE POCKET OF SHOWERS HAVE ALSO WORKED INTO THE WEST BRANCH AREA. BUT...SHOWERS/STORMS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF FIZZLING OUT FAST. HAVE UPDATED WEATHER/POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TSTM/SHOWER TRENDS. GOING FORWARD...MULLING OVER JUST WHAT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN WILL WORK UP THROUGH THE THUMB/SAGINAW VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MAY CLIP THE FAR SE COUNTIES. WILL SEE. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY GOING FORWARD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 A VERY /VERY/ SLOW TRANSITION TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER HAS BEGUN TODAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH FGEN BAND PROVIDING FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE SKIES WERE ABLE TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN REBOUNDED INTO THE 70S /PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF M-72/ WITH RESULTANT INSTABILITY AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR JUST SOUTH OF MY CWA ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO RE-FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERNS HEADING INTO THIS EVENING ARE CONVECTION EVOLUTION. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO FIRE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL LOWER...AND DRIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE BULK OF ANY DEVELOPING ACTIVITY INTO AN AREA BOUNDED BY CADILLAC /PERHAPS A LITTLE WEST OF THIS/ TO GRAYLING TO WEST BRANCH. AS CONVECTION MOVES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...THE COLD DOME EXPANDS AND EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO WANE. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH MUCAPES STRUGGLING TO REACH 750 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF 30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SMALL HAIL REPORTS AND WILL MENTION THIS IN AFTERNOON HWO AS WELL AS INCLUDE IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY WANES...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING SUGGESTING LITTLE CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES CENTER FIRST ON RETREATING FGEN BAND OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHICH HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO EASTERN UPPER...BUT AS THIS REORIENTS FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO ALSO SHIFT FURTHER NORTH THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...BROAD AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHRAS...BUT THIS IS MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THEREFORE NO MORE CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE OVER THE CWA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT INFLUENCE OF LAKE HURON TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOWER TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S...WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING PREVENTING TEMPS TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE LOWER 50S WEST OF US-131. EASTERN UPPER SHOULD SEE LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S. FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY...PRIMARY CONCERNS CENTER AROUND GYRE SPINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AND EAST IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TAKING THE UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY LATE FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE TO BRING THE RIBBON OF HIGHEST PWAT AIR AND AXIS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSE TO...IF NOT OVER MY SOUTHWEST ZONES. RAINFALL IN THIS QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM TODAY HAS BEEN DECENT /SEE PLUME OF SHRAS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS ATTM/. PWATS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE MARCH RECORDS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEING THE PRIMARY DRIVERS FOR PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS ARC OF SHOWERS TO ARRIVE BY LATE MORNING IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AND LIKELY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS A CVX-GLR-TAWAS LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH...CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME MORE RENEGADE SHRAS...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION. TEMPERATURES CLEARLY WILL BE DICTATED BY CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL AGAIN SUPPORT MID/UPPER 70S ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN. I DON/T THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME...AND WILL GENERALLY PAINT AN EAST TO WEST GRADIENT OF INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS ONE GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE HURON. THIS LEADS TO HIGHS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW 60 OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER 70S WEST OF US-131. THUNDER IS UNLIKELY /SEE LACK OF LIGHTNING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ARC OF SHOWERS TODAY/ GIVEN A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN WE HAVE TODAY WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 LONG WAVE TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES CONTINUES TO DEFINE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...PART OF A PERSISTENT FOUR WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN WITH ROUGHLY EQUAL SPACING BETWEEN LONG WAVE TROUGH AXES. FLOW COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS SPLIT WITH A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH ACROSS OKLAHOMA/KANSAS... WITH FASTER NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW BEGIN SHUNTED INTO CANADA. SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME...AND WILL ALLOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO CLIP MICHIGAN AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LOOK TO REBOUND AGAIN BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WEEKEND FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF MISSOURI FRIDAY EVENING...AND MEANDER ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ON SATURDAY. REMNANTS OF RAIN BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AT LEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PLAN TO GRADUATE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH... QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF ANYTHING GOING ON NORTH OF THE BRIDGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL A GOOD BIT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER AND LOWER 60S NORTHWEST LOWER. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SAUNTER EAST-SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT/ SUNDAY...CROSSING THE CAROLINAS BEFORE EXITING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THOUGH SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. NON-AMERICAN MODELS HAVE BEEN ON THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN PLAYING CATCH-UP AND IS FINALLY WARMING UP TO THIS IDEA. THIS WILL SERVE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AS SUNDAY WEARS ON AS COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS WAVE...MAINLY TIED TO HANDLING OF LINGERING SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THINKING THAT A SOLUTION TOWARD THE SLOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO LEAN AT THIS POINT...WHICH WOULD MEAN A LITTLE COOLER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY (AND DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGE POKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH. THE LIKELY ADVENT OF A LIMITED SET OF FREEZE HEADLINES NEXT WEEK (BOTH GEOGRAPHICALLY AND METEOROLOGICALLY) AFTER THE RECENT HISTORIC WARM SPELL WILL NECESSITATE MENTIONING A RETURN TO SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS COOL SHOT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN LONG WAVE FOR MIDWEEK. THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL BRING IN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER FOR THE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TVC THROUGH AROUND 02Z. THEN...FUTHER COOLING TONIGHT WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND REDUCED VSBYS. FRIDAY...UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 VERY QUIET ON THE MARINE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT HAS SETTLED SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS LOOKING LIKELY NEAR...AND ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE STRAITS. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARRIVES SUNDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && UPDATE...BA SYNOPSIS...LOCKER SHORT TERM...ARNOTT LONG TERM....JPB AVIATION...BA MARINE...ARNOTT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 415 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 231100- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 415 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER... FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A RETURN TO SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS OF NEXT WEEK (MOST WIDESPREAD TUESDAY MORNING). .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS...PLEASE SEND RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. REPORTS MAY BE MADE ONE OF TWO WAYS: BY PHONE: 1-800-647-8676 (REPORTS ONLY PLEASE...NO FORECASTS) BY FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.GAYLORD.GOV JPB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
432 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM HEAVY RAIN LUZERNE 44.62N 84.27W
03/22/2012 M0.72 INCH OSCODA MI SPOTTER
12 HR TOTAL THRU 430 PM.
&&
LOCKERSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 558 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 MIZ025-026-031>033-230000- BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE- 558 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PRIMARILY AROUND THE FRANKFORT...MANISTEE...CADILLAC AND HOUGHTON LAKE AREAS. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. IF ANY STORMS BECOME SEVERE...WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ADAM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
651 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0645 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW BRETHREN 44.26N 86.07W
03/22/2012 M0.67 INCH MANISTEE MI SPOTTER
15 MINUTE TOTAL FROM 630 PM TO 645 PM.
&&
LOCKERThe NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 125 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:50 UTC.
1 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 379814.