High Surf in Hawaii, March 22 to 25, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
957 AM HST THU MAR 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING FAR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN BREEZY...GUSTY TRADE WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH INTERACTING WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY TRADE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. RADAR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AREAS WITH THE BIG
ISLAND...MAUI AND KAUAI TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE BRIEF SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF
RAINFALL OVER WINDWARD AREAS WITH SOME BRIEF SHOWERS REACHING
LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CARRYING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS WILL SAG OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH BRINGING WET AND
CLOUDY WEATHER TO THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL LEND SUPPORT TO THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS COMBINATION WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE BIG ISLAND WINDWARD AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN WET BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE ORCHID ISLE SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE ALOHA STATE FROM THE EAST
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHED RAINFALL. WINDWARD AREAS
RAINFALL WILL DROP TO NORMAL AMOUNTS WITH INCREASED SHOWERS AT
NIGHT WHILE DECREASING DURING THE DAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WEAKENS SUNDAY...AND TRADE WINDS WILL DROP INTO THE MODERATE
TO FRESH RANGE ON THE BEAUFORT WIND SCALE. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE /GOES-15/ THAT PROVIDES IMAGERY OVER
THE PACIFIC...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...HAS SUFFERED A MALFUNCTION...AND IMAGERY IS UNAVAILABLE.
ESTIMATED TIME OF RESTORATION IS NO EARLIER THAN 6 AM
FRIDAY...MARCH 23. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES /HFOPNSHFO/.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS TODAY...BUT IT WILL
BE MIXED IN WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. MOD TURB AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT AS TRADE WINDS
INCREASE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EDGES CLOSER FROM THE WEST.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE BELOW 10
THOUSAND FEET SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF MOUNTAINS OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS FROM
THE EAST WIND SWELL AND A NORTH SWELL.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES
OF MOST OF THE ISLANDS EXCEPT LANAI AND NIIHAU UNTIL 6 PM HST
SATURDAY.

THE NORTH SWELL IS BRINGING SURF TO EXPOSED BEACHES BUT WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY AND
THEN FADE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU SOUTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG
ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-

&&

DISCUSSION...MORRISON
AVIATION...FOSTER