Flash Flooding and Hail in Kentucky, March 15, 2012

Name: Flash Flooding and Hail in Kentucky, March 15, 2012
Start: 2012-03-15T16:35
End: 2012-03-15T19:00
Location: Kentucky

March 15, 2012 · NWS ILN · 7 events in 5 counties and zones

A weak upper level disturbance combined with daytime heating to produce thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. Some of these storms became severe.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $2,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 7

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.

A weak upper level disturbance combined with daytime heating to produce thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. Some of these storms became severe. The main threat from these storms was large hail and localized flooding due to heavy rain.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 3:01 PM EST, 1 hour 34 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 15, 3:01 PM EST, 1 hour 34 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
401 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TOMORROW MORNING/...
IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEGUN TO REBOUND AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING. THE
MAIN STORY WITH THIS EVENINGS WEATHER HOWEVER IS A DISORGANIZED
AREA OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER
ILLINIOS...INDIANA...AND KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY IS MARCHING
EASTWARD...AND IS POISED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTER PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNSET. THUS FAR...THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS REACHES THE WESTERN ZONES.,..A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE...AS WE WILL LOSE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND THE STORMS WILL BE ENTERING AN ATMOSPHERE THAT NEVER
FULLY RECOVERED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL COULD STILL
OCCUR...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY POSE FLASH FLOOD
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY FELL
EARLIER TODAY...AND IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK. IN ADDITION...A SECOND
WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS MISSOURI. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AS THE
ANTICIPATED EVENING CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT QPFS COULD RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOME OF OUR ZONES FOR TONIGHT.

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW...HAVE KEPT GENERAL LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TOMORROW AM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIFFICULT TO TIME DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THESE WAVES PROVIDING THE
FOCUS OF STORMS FARTHER NORTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WOULD THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WOULD BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS.

THE RIDGE WILL THEN AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH RISING
HEIGHTS UNDER THE RIDGE...EXPECT OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THE DEVELOPING CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN ITS
EASTWARD PUSH AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. WOULD THINK
SLOWER SEEMS TO BE BETTER GIVEN THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST.
WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AND A CONTINUE WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY GENERATING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE AND
TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS CLEARED ALL THE TAF SITES AND THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET ACROSS THE
AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WHILE IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO LINGERING WIDESPREAD CIRRUS...THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. LATEST MODEL RUNS
OFFER NO CLEAR SIGNALS IN TERMS OF COVERAGE/TIMING/LOCATION
THOUGH...SO ONLY INTRODUCED VCTS WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP
AFTER 00Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH.
HOWEVER...KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ073-074-
     077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...KURZ

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 15, 3:08 PM EST, 1 hour 27 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ073-074-077>082-088-162015-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-ROSS-
HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
408 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. THIS COULD PRODUCE RAPID RISES IN AREA
STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-
162015-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-
408 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 15, 3:40 PM EST, 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
440 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             WAPAKONETA              40.57N 84.19W
03/15/2012  M1.00 INCH       AUGLAIZE           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BC

Special weather statement, Mar 15, 3:48 PM EST, 47 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

OHZ042-043-152130-
DARKE OH-SHELBY OH-
448 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SHELBY AND NORTHEASTERN DARKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 446 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEWPORT...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...FORT LORAMIE...SIDNEY
AND ANNA.

ALSO...NEWPORT...HOUSTON...LAKE LORAMIE STATE PARK...LOCKINGTON...
NEWBERN...HARDIN...MCCARTYVILLE AND SWANDERS ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4021 8406 4019 8449 4036 8449 4036 8444
      4038 8443 4038 8434 4040 8433 4045 8408

LATTO

Special weather statement, Mar 15, 3:51 PM EST, 44 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
451 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ077-152200-
SWITZERLAND IN-OHIO IN-DEARBORN IN-RIPLEY IN-KENTON KY-OWEN KY-
PENDLETON KY-BOONE KY-CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-
HAMILTON OH-
451 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH 6 PM. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BRIGHT...GREENDALE...
RISING SUN...HIDDEN VALLEY...OWENTON...HARRISON...CLEVES...
BURLINGTON...OAKBROOK...UNION...FLORENCE AND CHEVIOT.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF ANY OF THE STORMS
BECOME STRONGER...THEN WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3920 8545 3931 8522 3929 8433 3902 8432
      3858 8421 3856 8441 3834 8474 3835 8487
      3842 8489 3844 8497 3851 8499 3851 8503
      3856 8501 3858 8521 3872 8533 3874 8534
      3874 8526 3870 8521 3891 8521 3891 8545

Local storm report, Mar 15, 3:54 PM EST, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
454 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             1 E WAPAKONETA          40.57N 84.17W
03/15/2012  M0.88 INCH       AUGLAIZE           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BC

Local storm report, Mar 15, 4:09 PM EST, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
509 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             WAYNESFIELD             40.60N 83.97W
03/15/2012  E1.75 INCH       AUGLAIZE           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ASL

Local storm report, Mar 15, 4:14 PM EST, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
514 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             WAYNESFIELD             40.60N 83.97W
03/15/2012  U1.00 INCH       AUGLAIZE           OH   PUBLIC

&&

BC

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 120 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:35 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

5 hail, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Gallatin

When: March 15, 4:35 PM EST to 4:39 PM EST
Where: Gallatin County, 4 mi S of Warsaw
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 38.722, -84.880

Hail, Pendleton

When: March 15, 4:47 PM EST to 4:51 PM EST
Where: Pendleton County, 1 mi W of Falmouth
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 38.670, -84.349

Flash Flood, Owen

When: March 15, 5:17 PM EST to 6:00 PM EST
Where: Owen County, 1.2 mi WNW of Owenton to 2.12 mi NW of Owenton
Cause: Heavy Rain
Property damage: $1,000
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 38.533, -84.852

High water due to heavy rain was reported across Cull Road.

Hail, Pendleton

When: March 15, 5:43 PM EST to 5:47 PM EST
Where: Pendleton County, 1 mi W of Peach Grove
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 38.830, -84.299

Hail, Boone

When: March 15, 5:45 PM EST to 5:49 PM EST
Where: Boone County, Union
Measured: 0.75 in hail
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 38.950, -84.670

Hail, Campbell

When: March 15, 5:51 PM EST to 5:55 PM EST
Where: Campbell County, 1 mi SW of Mentor
Measured: 0.75 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 38.870, -84.243

Flash Flood, Gallatin

When: March 15, 6:00 PM EST to 7:00 PM EST
Where: Gallatin County, 1.46 mi W of Warsaw to 0.27 mi W of Warsaw
Cause: Heavy Rain
Property damage: $1,000
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 38.782, -84.907

High water due to heavy rain was reported along West Highway 42.

What these are

Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
Flash Flood: Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Kentucky in 2012 Every state in 2012 This day in weather history Warnings in Kentucky, March 2012

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 371733, 371734, 372333, 371740, 371735, 371741, 372334.