High Wind in Iowa, February 29, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
355 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE AND NETWORK PROFILERS THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
SD. 88D REVEALING DEFORMATION SNOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH AREAS
OF SNOW IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN CIRCULATION
AND PUSHING INTO NORTHERN NEB. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. THIS HAS PROMPTED EARLY ISSUANCE OF THE WIND ADVISORY
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT MOST OF TODAY.

AT THIS POINT BELIEVE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY LIFTING TOWARD
THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS A LIMITING FACTOR
AS WELL. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL COME TO A CLOSE AROUND NOONTIME.

OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE FLOW PROGGED TO BE RATHER ACTIVE HEADING
INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROFS RUSHING
ACROSS THE CONUS. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING UPPER
TROF WILL BE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ORGANIZE NEAR THE OK PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT DRIVING DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...NO REAL INDICATION THERE WILL BE
TIME FOR ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RECOVERY BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE CWA. NEVERTHELESS...MODELS ARE LAYING QPF ALONG LOW/MID
LAYER AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING. CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT AND PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL OPT TO LEAVE SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA.

OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON TAP
HEADING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

DEE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AT
LATE EVENING HAS PUSHED PRECIPITATION EAST AND NORTH OF TAF SITES
AS OF 06Z. MVFR CIGS NEAR FL015 WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
AFFECT KOFK THROUGH 15Z...AND COULD BRUSH BY KOMA EARLY IN THE TAF
CYCLE. BROKEN CIGS NEAR FL025 ARE LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUSTING TO 30KTS
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASING INTO THE 25KT TO 40KT RANGE BETWEEN
12Z AND 00Z. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO NEAR 12KTS.

DERGAN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
403 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-292200-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
403 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTLOOK
AREA. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THE REST OF TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.