Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Kentucky, February 29, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
651 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

.Update...
Issued at 650 AM EST Feb 29 2012

Did a subtle update to the grids that will not show up in the zones.
Not seeing much recovery in dewpoints behind the main line still out
to our west. Have dropped pops a little behind this line for the
afternoon. Still cannot rule out some severe storms however, given
strong winds aloft and expected heating. Latest NMM-WRF still shows
discrete cells forming this afternoon and larger scale models still
try and show a line of precip coming through this afternoon.

Update issued at 608 AM EST Feb 29 2012

Line of thunderstorms is west of the area, with airmass quickly
destabilizing out ahead of it.  Have had several tornado warnings
issued out to the west, with some verification. Based on an expected
similar airmass moving into our area, would expect the line to
survive as it heads quickly east. In addition may have some
development out ahead of it that is surface based. Updated products
have already gone out and a tornado watch has been issued.

.Short Term (Today through Thursday)...
Updated at 340 AM EST Feb 29 2012

Warm front a little difficult to find at this hour, but looking at
dewpoints and based on storm cell we issued an earlier warning on,
it would appear to be right along the I-64 corridor. As expected
with the increase in southerly winds across the area, temperatures
and dewpoints are rising slowly at this time. Winds just above the
surface are cranking, with latest area VAD profilers giving winds of
50-55 kts at 3000 feet, 60-70 kts at 4000 feet. Though temperatures
are rising, we still have not seen evidence of any of these cells
becoming surface-based, though winds out ahead of the line are
gusting to 20-30 kts this hour.

Including the current line of storms going through the region, we
might see 3 rounds of storms before the day is over. The second is a
line currently moving through MO/AR. This line may have enough of a
punch to bring some gusty winds just after daybreak to the region,
and will have to watch here again for any type of surface-based
convection as guidance keeps in strong low-level winds and 400-500
0-1 km helicities. However, the line should start breaking up around
daybreak though as it heads into central Kentucky and pulls farther
away from the parent cold front.

Behind that line will be a brief lull in precip as the dry slot gets
over us. Low clouds may stick around through the day, potentially
limiting available instability for the third round of storms just
ahead of the cold front. Still, the southwesterly winds through the
day should make temperatures continue to rise despite the cloud
cover, with highs ranging from the mid 60s to around 70 areawide.
Precipitable waters remain fairly high this afternoon, with readings
around 1.25 inches. Forcing just ahead of the front combined with
any type of heating should be enough to initiate another line around
or just after Noon. Shear profiles associated with this line should
be more unidirectional, but we still will have roughly 70 kts of 0-6
km shear! Thus cannot rule out another damaging wind threat with
this line as well as tornadoes. If I had to pin down an area, would
have to agree with SPC, which has held pretty steady the past couple
of days in their outlook for this region, of along and east of an
SDF to BWG line for having the best chance at seeing severe weather
withing this third line of storms.

Behind this third line, the front will move through with just a
subtle shift in winds to westerly overnight and drier air filtering
in. Expect skies to clear areawide by midnight, with lows falling
into the lower 40s. Given the not that cool air behind this front
and the full sunshine expected Thursday, have gone for highs around
60 over the north and in the upper 60s across the south.

.Long Term (Thursday Night- Tuesday)...
Updated at 320 AM EST Feb 29 2012

...Potential for more strong to severe thunderstorms again Friday
afternoon and night...

Surface low will strengthen as it moves out of the southern Plains
to the middle Mississippi River Valley Thursday night. This will
occur ahead of a positively tilted trough developing over the
central CONUS with 100-120 knot upper level jet rounding the base.
Most of Thursday night will be dry with increasing mid and upper
level clouds ahead of the next system. A warm front will approach
the Tennessee border toward dawn with WAA showers and thunderstorms
possible across the southern tier or two of counties before dawn on
Friday. Warm front will quickly lift north across the CWA during the
late morning on Friday with numerous showers and thunderstorms as
the surface low continues to strengthen on its way to the southern
Great Lakes.

Friday afternoon and evening look to be interesting as the CWA
quickly finds itself in the warm sector and surface based storms
combine with a veering and strong shear profile ahead of a cold
frontal passage. With surface temperatures in the upper 60s and
possibly low 70s, and dew points likely in the 55-60 degree range,
moderate instability appears possible despite heavy cloud cover for
much of the day. Shear profile is also impressive with and increase
to 45-50 knots with h85 jet and enough veering in the low to mid
levels to support supercells. It appears we may have to overcome
some degree of low level inversion through the afternoon hours, and
with heavy cloud cover, the degree of destabilization that models
suggest seems like it could be overdone. That being said, potential
exists for strong and severe storms Friday afternoon and evening and
system will have to be watched. Adding confidence, SPC just included
the entire CWA in a slight risk, with the majority of the CWA in an
enhanced area for severe weather.

Cold front will quickly race from west to east across the CWA Friday
night with thunderstorm chances likely ending by midnight. Trough
will continue to slide east over the eastern CONUS with cooler
airmass in place for the weekend. Highs will drop back to around 50
for Saturday with lows Saturday night around freezing. Saturday and
Saturday night look to be dry as deeper moisture quickly departs
with the system and surface high pressure briefly takes control.

Sunday could be an interesting day as a wave of energy appears to
dive across the northern plains and into the region. Although
surface temperatures will be warming into the mid and upper 40s by
midday, a look at thermal profiles reveals that a rain/snow mix or
even ice pellets will be possible through midday as steep low level
lapse rates combine with some low level moisture. After
collaboration with surrounding offices, will only keep mention of
rain for now as temps will quickly warm and timing/placement of
system is still in question. Should the system arrive, quicker
mention of convective snow showers/ice pellets may be needed with
future forecasts.

Dry weather looks to return Sunday night through Tuesday as surface
high pressure and ridging aloft dominate the weather pattern. Look
for highs back around 60 by Tuesday afternoon with lows around 30
Sunday night warming to the mid 30s by Monday night.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 600 AM EST Feb 29 2012

Warm front has made it north of all of the TAF sites this hour. A
line of elevated thunderstorms runs from KSDF to KBWG and is heading
rapidly east. Another stronger line of storms will come through the
TAF sites between 12 and 15Z with gusts to 30-40 knots likely as
possible IFR conditions. Then expect a break in the storms at each
site, though could keep MVFR cigs until the next line develops near
a KSDF to KBWG line around Noon and heads east. Winds will be gusty
through the day today ahead of a cold front and outside of the
storms, as the pressure gradient across the region is tight. Will
see a subtle shift to westerly as the front passes through later
today and tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Updates..........RJS
Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........BJS
Aviation.........RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
356 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-010900-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
356 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012 /256 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

RJS/BJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

KYZ055>057-066-067-290930-
BOYLE-CASEY-GARRARD-LINCOLN-MADISON-
340 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
40 MPH WINDS...

AT 336 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER BOYLE COUNTY EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO CASEY AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

THROUGH 430 AM EST...THESE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS RICHMOND AND BEREA. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  STANFORD...
  RICHMOND...
  LANCASTER...
  DANVILLE...
  HUBBLE AND GILBERT...
  HYATTSVILLE AND POINT LEAVELL...
  HACKLEY AND NINA...
  SILVER CREEK AND KIRKSVILLE...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
76 AND 90.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3778 8410 3774 8407 3767 8409 3764 8412
      3756 8409 3756 8416 3751 8426 3753 8434
      3748 8437 3748 8444 3746 8445 3737 8504
      3767 8502 3774 8459 3773 8457 3775 8455
      3786 8412 3785 8408 3783 8410 3780 8407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0839Z 251DEG 50KT 3757 8473

RAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
633 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

INZ076-083-291215-
DUBOIS-ORANGE-
633 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN...AND
40 MPH WINDS...

AT 630 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WINSLOW...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN THREE
MILES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  PAOLI...
  JASPER...
  PORTERSVILLE AND HAYSVILLE...
  THALES AND KELLERVILLE...
  HILLHAM AND CRYSTAL...
  PROSPECT AND WEST BADEN SPRINGS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE
INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 8708 3851 8698 3849 8695 3851 8694
      3850 8688 3853 8684 3853 8669 3869 8668
      3869 8631 3852 8631 3835 8708
TIME...MOT...LOC 1133Z 247DEG 70KT 3843 8713

JDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
701 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

INZ089-291245-
PERRY-
601 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER HENDERSON COUNTY HEADING TOWARDS PERRY
COUNTY INDIANA...

AT 653 AM EST/553 AM CST/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 21 MILES WEST OF ROCKPORT...AND
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI AND CURRENTLY HAS A TORNADO WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH. WE WILL BE BE WATCHING THE
STORM FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  BRISTOW AND ADYEVILLE...
  CELINA AND APALONA...
  BRANCHVILLE AND SAINT CROIX...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
74 AND 79.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE PREPARED NOW AND PAY ATTENTION FOR FUTURE
WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 8679 3824 8679 3825 8668 3826 8668
      3827 8662 3827 8657 3821 8657 3821 8652
      3808 8645 3801 8678 3808 8678 3810 8677
      3811 8681 3818 8681
TIME...MOT...LOC 1156Z 251DEG 63KT 3798 8736

JDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

INZ076-077-083-084-291245-
CRAWFORD-DUBOIS-ORANGE-WASHINGTON-
715 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
50 MPH WINDS...

AT 711 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF
PAOLI TO 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF DALE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  ENGLISH...
  TROTTER CROSSING AND VALEENE...
  REGO AND MIFFLIN...
  ROSEBUD AND HARDINSBURG...
  MARENGO AND ORGAN SPRINGS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 8707 3853 8631 3853 8605 3842 8618
      3842 8626 3836 8625 3830 8633 3821 8708
TIME...MOT...LOC 1215Z 268DEG 39KT 3847 8645 3825 8676

EER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
719 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

INZ076>078-291245-
ORANGE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-
719 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
40 MPH WINDS...

AT 716 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SALEM TO PAOLI...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  SALEM...
  PROWSVILLE AND HITCHCOCK...
  PLATTSBURG AND KOSSUTH...
  BECKS MILL AND CANTON...
  PUMPKIN CENTER AND LITTLE YORK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3853 8594 3853 8632 3849 8652 3869 8636
      3869 8631 3873 8631 3877 8628 3878 8619
      3877 8613 3879 8608 3877 8604 3876 8590
      3873 8588 3882 8579 3881 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 1219Z 265DEG 43KT 3875 8619 3849 8639

EER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
732 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

KYZ024-026-027-291315-
BRECKINRIDGE-GRAYSON-OHIO-
632 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER HOPKINS COUNTY HEADING TOWARDS OHIO
COUNTY...

AT 722 AM EST/622 AM CST/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
AND STORM SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 33 MILES WEST
OF GREENVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PADUCAH IS ISSUING TORNADO WARNINGS FOR THIS STORM AND IT
CONTAINS HAIL IN EXCESS OF GOLF BALLS IN IT.

* WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LEITCHFIELD...
  HARTFORD...
  COFFMAN AND MATANZAS...
  HEFLIN AND BEDA...
  TAFFY AND SUNNYDALE...
  DUNDEE AND MAGAN...

WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
107 AND 94.

WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED NOW FOR EXPECTED WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT HOUR. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 8710 3749 8713 3749 8710 3760 8700
      3773 8625 3763 8625 3759 8628 3760 8626
      3741 8626 3737 8653 3739 8662 3735 8669
      3731 8699 3736 8704 3736 8707 3732 8711
      3733 8714
TIME...MOT...LOC 1226Z 250DEG 55KT 3731 8770

JDG