Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, April 28, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
426 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN
CHANCES AS IT IS EXPECTED TO WANDER NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ALSO. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A WARM FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS STRETCHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOW PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN MISSOURI.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN
A DRY LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
EXTREME NORTH TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS SUGGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH A
DEEP INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERRUNNING THE
COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED THIS
AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT TSRA AND SHRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE AND ONLY SHOW WEAK LIFT. 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
BEST LIFT IN THE SOUTHWEST AREA NEAR THE FRONT...BUT SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES ARE SUSPECT...ONLY LINGERING AROUND 2-3 G/KG. FURTHERMORE
ANY PASSING SHORT WAVE IN THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT ALSO HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THUS WITH SOME
UNCERTAINLY ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF PRECIP DUE TO A LACK OF A
SINGLE STRONG FORCING FEATURE WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAV
POPS...EXPECT IN THE SOUTHWEST AREA NEAR THE FRONT WHERE CHCS FOR
PRECIP SHOULD BE BEST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AS THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER LEVEL PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

AGAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE BE POPS. RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF INDIANA WHILE A MUCH STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
ARRIVES ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DEEPER MOISTURE IS ALSO SEEN IN THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE ALSO SHOWERS BETTER
LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON SUNDAY...AS THE
EXPECTED SHORT WAVE PROVIDES A CLEAR FORCING SIGNAL. STICKING
CLOSE ON HIGH TEMPS...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT A LARGE
GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE WARM FRONT.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BOTH CONTINUE TO HINT AND A SERIES OF UPPER
SHORT WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. FURTHERMORE IN THE LOWER LEVELS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN INDIANA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PULLING THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FOR MONDAY. GIVEN THE
FORCING THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS HIGHER...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO HIGHS AS WARM
FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL BE KEY.

MUCH OF INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. INITIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING
CONVECTION AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT
WAVE...WILL NEED TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER AS HEATING
AND FORCING IS LOST EXPECT A TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS
REACH NEAR 13C. THUS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS. GIVEN THE
RAIN AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY INDICATE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR. FURTHERMORE
NEAR 1000 J/KG OF CAPE APPEAR AVAILABLE. LITTLE SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE IN PLACE ALOFT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CAPE AND HEATING WE WILL NOT
BE ABLE TO RULE OUT SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHRA/TSRA. WILL TREND
HIGHS WARMER THAN MAVMOS...AND TRY TO FOCUS PRECIP CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME APPEARS TO SET UP FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PRODUCING AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES BUILD IN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ALLBLEND LOOKS OK EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...IN WHICH DRY FORECAST LOOKS WARRANTED.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS LIKE AN EVERY
DAY WASHOUT...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
THERE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME 80S
APPEARING POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM. ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION
HANDLES THIS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 282100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

AREA OF RAIN/EMBEDDED CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE KIND TERMINAL...BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL
KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL ADD SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 290200Z BASED ON SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.

MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 020 MAY BEGIN TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP ONCE THE
LIFT/SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

COMPLEX FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD WITH A WARM FRONT IN THE AREA.
EXPECT LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS AT IND/LAF...WITH SOME BREAKS INTO
VFR AT HUF/BMG AS THEY ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL TRAPPING INVERSION
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT IND/LAF...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT AT HUF/BMG. INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH THAT MVFR CLOUD
SHOULD SCATTER OUT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AT THE LATTER TWO
SITES.

HUF/BMG WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO COVERAGE/TIMING/EXTENT...STUCK WITH A VCTS/CB
MENTION.

ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME MVFR AGAIN THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO AT
LEAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY...WITH SPORADIC GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-291000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-
532 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.

HAZARDS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT LIGHTNING IS A
HAZARD IN ANY THUNDERSTORM.

TIMING: THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 600 PM.

DISCUSSION: AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY THIS SUNDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE BEST THREATS MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH ALL THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION: A FRONT IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVES WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ065-072-291000-
DECATUR-JENNINGS-
532 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.

HAZARDS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
LIGHTNING IS A HAZARD IN ALL THUNDERSTORMS.

TIMING: THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 6PM.

DISCUSSION: AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE AIR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MAY
HELP TO TRIGGER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE BEST THREATS MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH ALL THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION: A FRONT IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVES WILL BRING PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ051>053-060>064-067>071-291000-
VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-KNOX-
DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-
532 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT.

HAZARDS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. LIGHTNING IS A HAZARD IN ALL THUNDERSTORMS.

TIMING: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION: AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE AIR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
MAY HELP TO TRIGGER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE BEST THREATS MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH ALL THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION: A FRONT IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVES WILL BRING PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
533 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             RUSSELLVILLE            39.86N  86.98W
04/28/2012  M0.50 INCH       PUTNAM             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER IND1200168

ELB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
540 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             5 SE OAKTOWN            38.82N  87.38W
04/28/2012  M0.50 INCH       KNOX               IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER IND1200168

ELB