Hail in Illinois, April 28, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
232 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE CONVECTION COVERAGE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A SEVERE THREAT EARLY...AND
THEN TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR. IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
ACRS THE REGION THIS EVENING...THE BOUNDARY WILL GET NUDGED FURTHER
SOUTH FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TOMORROW EVENING INTO MONDAY. THE LARGE
COOL CANADIAN HIGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST BY ALL
MODELS TO FINALLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING THE
NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE BOUNDARY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY
OVER OUR FAR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH POPS INCREASING AGAIN LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AND INTERACTS
WITH THE WARM FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER
AT ALL LOCATIONS MONDAY BUT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP ACRS THE AREA
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE READINGS WILL
WARM TO AROUND 80. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE LOW 80S FAR
WEST AND SOUTH WITH ALL LOCATIONS SEEING 80S ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
HIGHS WITH READINGS SHOOTING INTO THE 80S ACRS THE WEST AND SOUTH
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PATTERN BECOMING MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THEN TRANSLATING
TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING OF EACH WAVE
COMING OUT OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE
THRU THE PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. IT APPEARS
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL PUSH ACRS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AND APPROACH OUR AREA LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
AFTER THAT...ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING AS A DEEP TROF PUSHING INTO THE
NW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE NEXT WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
WHICH WOULD NORMALLY TAKE THE CONVECTION CHANCES TO OUR NORTH CLOSER
TO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. WILL START TO CUT BACK ON MENTIONABLE POPS
AS THE STRONG UPPER WAVE SHIFTS AWAY FROM OUR AREA STARTING ON
FRIDAY AND HOLDING THRU SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES THRU THIS PERIOD
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

SMITH
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1218 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AT MIDDAY. AWIPS TIME-OF-ARRIVAL TOOL INDICATES THE STORMS BE
NEAR KSPI AROUND 18Z AND KDEC JUST BEFORE 19Z. RADAR LOOPS WOULD
SUGGEST THEY WOULD STAY JUST BARELY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS...BUT
WILL MENTION TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT. WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ROUGHLY ALONG THE KSPI-KCMI CORRIDOR...MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE CEILING HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON IS
LIKELY TO COME BACK DOWN TO MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...AS AN UPPER
WAVE SENDS SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

GEELHART
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1140 AM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

ILZ027>031-036>038-291100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
1140 AM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ040>057-061-291100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
1140 AM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-72 MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL...BUT THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN
ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-291100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
1140 AM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

GEELHART