Hail in Illinois, August 16, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
150 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

CONVECTION TAKING SHAPE IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 64 IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
INTO TONIGHT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER FORECAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS NEVER SHUNTED
TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST
PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...BUT A CONSENSUS HAS NOT BEEN REACHED AT THIS
TIME. WILL HOLD ON ANY POP INCLUSION...AND MONITOR THE TRENDS.
AFTER A WARM HUMID DAY TODAY...IT WILL NOT BE A WARM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GFS MOS STILL SEEMS
A BIT TOO COOL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
SUNDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.  UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND INCREASING DEW
POINTS TO THE PAH FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP US DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN GFS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THURSDAY.  ECMWF KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
A SURFACE HIGH JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.  CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME IS
TO KEEP THE AREA DRY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH SSW WINDS 5-15 KTS TURNING NORTH
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...BUT
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING AND COVERAGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-171000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
340 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE TIME PERIOD FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STORMS WILL END FRIDAY MORNING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
221 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ILZ084-162000-
JACKSON IL-
221 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 220 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AVA...OR 12 MILES WEST OF
MURPHYSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MURPHYSBORO...CARBONDALE AND DE SOTO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
241 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             2 SE AVA                37.87N 89.47W
08/16/2012  M0.50 INCH       JACKSON            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CTN