Hail and Damaging Winds in Tennessee, August 16 to 17, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
249 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...FRONT IS TO THE NW OVER CNTRL MO MOVING SEWD WHILE
AN OLD DISSIPATING FRONT IS TO THE SOUTH OVER GA/AL/MS. THUS THESE
2 FEATURES SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEP
SOUTH. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION PRESENTLY OVER THE MIDSTATE.
MAINILY DUE TO THE MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.
AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES CLOSER LATE TODAY WE MAY START TO PICK
SOME CONVECTION IN THE EXTREME NW COUNTIES. THAT ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL THIN A GOOD BIT IN THE EAST
WHERE MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL. THE FRONT(WIND SHIFT) IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE NWRN COUNTIES BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IT SHOULD BE EAST OF KBNA BY 17Z AND AT KCSV 19Z TO
20Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE MIDSTATE. HOWEVER, THE FRONT DOES NOT
PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO TOTALLY PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE
AREA. I'VE LEFT A SLIVER OF POPS OVER THE SRN MOST AND SERN MOST
COUNTIES FOR SAT AND SUN.

THEN A 2ND SURGE OF DRY AIR PUSHES IN SUN NGT AND MON MOVING THE
FRONT AND ITS MOISTURE FURTHER INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THINK THE GFS
IS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING BACK MOISTURE IN THE WEST AND HAVE
KEPT THE AREA DRY THROUGH WED NGT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES ON THU SO I'VE INCLUDED A 20 POP FOR THU AND THU NGT.

SEVERE...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED A SLGT CHC AREA OVER THE WRN OH VALLEY.
ANY SVR CONVECTION THAT FORMS IN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW
SVR LIMITS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN WITH THE FRONT OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE MIDSTATE TOMORROW
AFTN WHEN THE DIURNAL CYCLE RAMPS UP AGAIN THEY HAVE OUTLOOKED
AN AREA OVER THE SERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE PLUS NRN MS/AL/GA.
BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

HEAVY RAIN...HPC IS OUTLOOKING LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN FOR THIS EVENT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AT A MODEST PACE ACROSS THE AREA W/O
GETTING "HUNG UP". ALSO...MUCH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT IS WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      72  85  64  83 /  50  70  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  82  60  81 /  60  50  10  10
CROSSVILLE     65  81  61  79 /  20  70  50  20
COLUMBIA       71  85  64  84 /  50  70  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  86  63  85 /  40  70  30  10
WAVERLY        70  82  60  82 /  60  50  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

JLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-172330-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
621 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS WEST OF I 65 THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

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