Wildfire in Hawaii, July 1 to 4, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT JUN 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR NORTH OF THE
FIFTIETH STATE. LOW CLOUDS AND PASSING LIGHT TRADE SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MOST LEEWARD LOCATIONS ON THE
SMALLER ISLANDS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY...WHILE THE LEEWARD BIG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 38N 160W...OR
ABOUT 1170 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO
THIS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS MAINTAINING MODERATE
TRADE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE STATE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND TAKE UP A POSITION FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS HIGH TIGHTENS.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS THE AREA
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. ONE SUCH BAND IS
CURRENTLY EVIDENT UPWIND OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY. THIS
BAND WILL LIKELY CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MANY OF THE ISLANDS FROM THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. THE TRADE WINDS MAY ALSO BLOW A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
TO SOME LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN SPARSE. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO CAUSE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE KONA AND KAU SLOPES ON THE BIG ISLAND EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
/SCA/ THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE STARTING MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...THE
CRITERIA FOR SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AND CHANNELS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND. THESE SCA CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THESE
AREAS AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST.

A NEW LONG PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ON
SUNDAY...PEAK ON MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY. A
LARGER SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING ON TUESDAY...IS FORECAST TO PEAK FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH RESULTING SURF HEIGHTS FORECAST TO
BE NEAR THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER ON FRIDAY.

EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT-PERIOD CHOPPY
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY LARGER
TRADE WIND-GENERATED WAVES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PREVAILING FLYING CONDITION TONIGHT WILL BE VFR. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING
OVER THE WINDWARD AND MT AREAS OF ALL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ISLANDS
EAST OF KAUAI.

NO AIRMETS EXPECTED.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION...HOUSTON
MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...LAU