Hail and Damaging Wind in Georgia, August 2, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
817 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
MONDAY...AND LINGERING IN THE VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2330 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE 18Z ADJMAV
AND 18Z NAM. SKY WAS UPDATED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND ADJUSTED
DOWN IN THE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT PER TRENDS. POPS WERE INCREASED IN
THE NE GA MOUNTAINS...AND AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF KCLT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT/S A LITTLE SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION HAS
BEEN AS STRONG AS IT/S BEEN OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS THE PAST HOUR AS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WEAK SFC BNDRY
TRAILING THIS FEATURE WHICH IS EVIDENT AS A LINE OF ENHANCED CU THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...NORTHWESTWARD TO
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST OF MARION. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING...STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BNDRY...WITH WEAKER CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 1100-1500 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ACCORDING TO
THE SPC MESO-ANALYSIS AND THE STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM ARE LIKELY
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. IN FACT...THE CONVECTION IS
LIABLE TO LAST A WAYS INTO THE EVENING AS THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
POTENT OUTFLOW BNDRYS. HOPEFULLY THEY WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF ANY GOOD UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES. I/D EXPECT
STORMS THIS AFTN TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE WITH 60 DBZ CORES AT 19-20
KFT AND/OR 55 DBZ CORES UP AROUND 24 KFT.

LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY THE NAM AND GFS AGREE IN BRINGING AN MCV
INTO THE MTNS...OR PERHAPS A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION. IN
FACT...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTS INCREASING TROUGHINESS
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BETWEEN TWO STRONG RIDGES...ONE OVER THE PLAINS
AND ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LAYER RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASINGLY FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGE OVER THE MTNS. THE
PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN UNDER WEAK NVA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT LOWER IN THESE ZONES. EVEN WITH THE MOISTENING
ATMOSPHERE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE A GOOD BET IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...THE SHORT RANGE WILL FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK WAVE ALOFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY
SERVE TO KEEP CONVECTION FIRING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE. SEE NOTHING
THAT SHOULD DISCOURAGE DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH STORMS BECOMING NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE STORMS SHOULD PUSH OFF THE BLUE
RIDGE IN THE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY DIE OFF LATE AT NIGHT...AS
USUAL...SINCE THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD NOT BE AROUND TO HELP MAINTAIN.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY AS THE SETUP DOES NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH. PROFILES LOOK RELATIVELY MOIST AND TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY
WARM AT MID LEVELS...WHICH MAY SERVE TO CUT BACK ON SEVERE STORM
CHANCES. TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM THU...THE LATEST GUIDANCE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
FAVORS MAINTAINING A WEAKNESS AT 500 MB BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. THE
GFS LEAVES AN AREA OF WEAK Q CONVERGENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET OVERHEAD. AT THE SURFACE...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A LIGHT S OR SW FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...THIS WOULD
APPEAR TO FAVOR AN ENHANCEMENT TO OUR USUAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...SO THAT IS ESSENTIALLY WHAT WILL BE PUT IN THE FCST. THERE
MIGHT BE A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH. ANY OF THE DAYS THROUGH MID WEEK
COULD SEE NUMEROUS STORMS...BUT FOR NOW WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE TO THE
40 PCT RANGE. THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED CHANCES IN
THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN WAVE. TEMPS IN GENERAL WILL STAY NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE WARMEST DAY BEING THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE FIELD WILL EXIT TH AREA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LIMITED CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF LOW VFR FOG AT DAYBREAK...IT HAS BEEN
OVERDONE LATELY...AND VFR WILL BE MAINTAINED. CONVECTION WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND PROB30 WILL BE CARRIED IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW TONIGHT. GUIDANCE ONCE
AGAIN FAVORS MVFR FOG OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...AND IFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SINCE GUIDANCE WAS TOO PESSIMISTIC IN THE FOOTHILLS LAST
NIGHT...AND RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIMITED...VFR WILL BE MAINTAINED
THERE. RAINFALL NEAR KAVL WILL LEND BETTER SUPPORT TO IFR FOG AND
LIFR CIG. AN ARRIVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND PROB30 WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL
SITES. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...EXCEPT TONIGHT AT
KAVL WHEN A LIGHT NORTH WIND IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...ISLD/SCT AFTN-EVE TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. MTN VLYS
WILL SEE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
833 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-040045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
833 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CHARLOTTE METROPOLITAN
AREA...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ071-072-022315-
CABARRUS-MECKLENBURG-
637 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MECKLENBURG AND
SOUTHWESTERN CABARRUS COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 636 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HARRISBURG...OR NEAR UNC CHARLOTTE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  HARRISBURG...
  HARRISBURG...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3528 8046 3512 8069 3533 8085 3544 8068

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             6 NE MONROE             35.05N 80.47W
08/02/2012  M1.75 INCH       UNION              NC   PUBLIC

&&

JOH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
701 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             9 NE MONROE             35.08N 80.43W
08/02/2012  M1.25 INCH       UNION              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
706 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ071-082-022345-
MECKLENBURG-UNION-
706 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG AND WESTERN
UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

AT 700 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF PINEVILLE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF
CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MATTHEWS...
  STALLINGS...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3484 8071 3491 8079 3494 8079 3506 8090
      3509 8092 3520 8080 3502 8051

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
757 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

GAZ028-029-SCZ010-011-030045-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-ELBERT-HART-
757 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ELBERT...SOUTHEASTERN
HART...SOUTHERN ANDERSON AND WESTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 845
PM EDT...

AT 752 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF NUBERG...OR 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HARTWELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  RUCKERSVILLE...NUBERG...HARTWELL...SADLERS CREEK STATE PARK AND
  LOWNDESVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3423 8259 3409 8284 3434 8299 3444 8281

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
847 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

GAZ026-028-SCZ004-010-030130-
ANDERSON-FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-HART-
847 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HART...NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...
SOUTHERN OCONEE AND WESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT...

AT 842 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAIR PLAY...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HARTWELL. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  HARTWELL...WHITWORTH...REED CREEK...LAVONIA...HARTWELL...
  BOWERSVILLE...STARR...SADLERS CREEK STATE PARK...OAKWAY AND FAIR
  PLAY.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3450 8316 3454 8311 3455 8312 3456 8312
      3463 8299 3438 8269 3423 8300 3423 8303

07