Hail in Colorado, June 14, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1138 PM MDT THU JUN 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU JUN 14 2012

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY 21Z.

CURRENT VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
MANITOBA WITH VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO
THE CWA AND CURRENTLY STALLED ALONG A LINE FROM ABOUT MCCOOK
NEBRASKA TO LAMAR COLORADO AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR
TRENTON AND WORK SOUTHWARD ALONG FRONT. SURFACE OBS IMPLY THAT WINDS
ARE BEGINNING TO BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH MESOLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF KANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CAP HAS QUICKLY
BEGUN TO ERODE AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED TO MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROFILE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE CWA HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1-1.5
INCHES AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLOOD ISSUES ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE LINE. IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000
J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE
HAIL. STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FRIDAY BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE ABUNDANTLY AVAILABLE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO NORTH INTO THE BLACK
HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU JUN 14 2012

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
EVENING.  MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY TO BE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.  THERE IS
ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY ALSO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...SO WILL EXTEND PRECIP. CHANCES SOUTH TOWARD
THE TRIBUNE AND LEOTI AREA.  FURTHER EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER
POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP AREAS FURTHER
EAST DRY FOR THE EARLY EVENING. DURING THE LATE EVENING THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST AS DOES THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS 850-700MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA. POINT SOUNDINGS
SATURATE DOWN TO 850MB OR SO. WITH THE ADDED LIFTING OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND INCREASED MOISTURE...THIS SHOULD BE THE BEST PERIOD
FOR PRECIPITATION SO HAVE INCREASED PRECIP. CHANCES SOME DURING
THE LATE EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...EXITING THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WITH POINT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DRYING TREND
WILL HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES DECLINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL LEAVE IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE MORNING OVER THE
MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE FOR LIFTING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT TO WORK WITH.  THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA
AROUND NOON...STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA.  AN INSTABILITY AXIS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WITH MINIMAL CINH WHICH WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE WIND FIELD
CO-LOCATED WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SO
HAVE EXTENDED THE PRECIP. CHANCES FROM THE COLORADO BORDER EAST
TOWARD LEOTI AND HILL CITY.  TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THE TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY AREA DUE TO THE MEAN FLOW RUNNING
PARALLEL TO THE STALLED FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.  MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF MOVE THE TROUGH THROUGH FASTER WHILE THE GFS
MOVES THE TROUGH THROUGH SLOWER.  WILL SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
KEEP THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA DRY WITH SOME PRECIP. CHANCES OVER
THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXITS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.  ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.  TUESDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ACROSS A DRY LINE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.  WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING PRECIP. CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT....GIVING THE AREA THE
BEST SHOT AT PRECIP. CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK.  BEHIND THE FRONT THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING PRECIP.
CHANCES TO AN END.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING PRECIP. CHANCES OUT
EAST AND SOUTH BEFORE THE FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS EXIT THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT THU JUN 14 2012

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
SO MENTION HAS BEEN LEFT OUT DURING THIS TAF UPDATE. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY
BUILDS ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS REGION. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...IMPROVING BY MIDDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY SUNRISE...WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1037 AM MDT THU JUN 14 2012

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1037 AM MDT THU JUN 14 2012 /1137 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE COLORADO KANSAS BORDER. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
652 PM MDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             6 SE HOXIE              39.29N 100.36W
06/14/2012  M1.00 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MLAMMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
713 PM MDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     GOVE                    38.96N 100.49W
06/14/2012  M58 MPH          GOVE               KS   MESONET

&&

MLAMMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
734 PM MDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             OAKLEY                  39.13N 100.85W
06/14/2012  M1.50 INCH       LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MLAMMERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
913 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

KSZ014-150315-
THOMAS-
913 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 909 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF
ANGELUS TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF WINONA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS TO 55 MPH AHEAD OF THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS ONE MILE. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

&&

LAT...LON 3915 10073 3915 10136 3954 10138 3954 10074
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 125DEG 15KT 3927 10067 3913 10136

DR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
831 PM MDT THU JUN 14 2012

COZ090-091-KSZ001-002-013-NEZ079-150330-
CHEYENNE-DUNDY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-RAWLINS-SHERMAN-YUMA COUNTY-
831 PM MDT THU JUN 14 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS...RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 828 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS ARE PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS ONE MILE. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND VISIBILITY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

&&

LAT...LON 4003 10132 4001 10132 4000 10130 3990 10123
      3906 10269 3947 10299 4031 10152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 151DEG 31KT 3993 10138 3920 10266

DR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1114 PM MDT THU JUN 14 2012

COZ090-091-150545-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-YUMA COUNTY-
1114 PM MDT THU JUN 14 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND
YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 1111 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF THURMAN...OR 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FLAGLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 10316 3957 10281 3975 10280 3957 10263
      3918 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 235DEG 16KT 3945 10317

DR