Flooding and Dust Storm in Texas, June 14 to 15, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
320 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.  SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE TROF/DRYLINE
AXIS IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.  OFFICE WEBCAM AND MODIFIED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THAT CLOUD BASES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH
WITH AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING.  INITIALLY...THE STRONGER STORMS
SHOULD BE MAINLY WATCHED FOR DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE HEADING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH PRESENTS AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGER HAIL AS THE STORMS
PUSH EAST INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT.  CLOSER TO LUBBOCK...ONE CELL HAS
TRIED TO CONTINUALLY DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE CITY BUT IT APPEARS
TO NOT BE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COULD BE LOCATED JUST
ABOVE THE CAP...INDICATING THAT THERE IS SOME LIFT OVER THE REGION
BUT THE CAP HAS NOT TOTALLY ERODED OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS.

EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED EARLY ON AND BE
DRIVEN INITIALLY BY THE DRYLINE WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT AND EARLY STORM
MOTIONS DETERMINED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND
DEVELOPMENT.  ENOUGH SHEAR IS PRESENT TO PROVIDE FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION AS THE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  FOR
TONIGHT...UPPED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE LOW END OF
CHANCE AND THEN KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  WILL
ALSO GO AHEAD AND MENTION DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH BUT DRY ENVIRONMENT YESTERDAY
MAY RESULT IN DUSTY OUTFLOW HEADING TOWARDS THE I-27
CORRIDOR/LUBBOCK LATER THIS EVENING.

POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
DECREASES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE MIN
TEMPS QUITE A BIT AS THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING 5-9 DEGREES TOO WARM
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  DAY SHOULD START OFF DRY WITH A FEW
REMNANT HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION.  TOMORROW AFTERNOON  MAY BE A
REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE DRYLINE PUSHING CLOSE TO THE STATE LINE AND
THEN DEEP MIXING HELPING TO ERODE THE CAP RESULTING IN HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...EVENTUALLY PUSHING EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UL DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...IS
PROGGED TO RETROGRADE SSW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOMORROW NIGHT
THUS INDUCING SW FLOW ALOFT. SFC TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL PROMOTE A DRYLINE TO NEAR THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO BORDER DURING
THE SAID PERIOD...WHILE CONCURRENTLY AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE THE SYNOPTIC SPARK TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT A BIT OF
CIN BEING PRESENT...IT APPEARS TO BE OVERCOME BY ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS
SHOWN VIA THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
ON THE CAPROCK. IF STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP...SOUNDING PROFILES
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE...A VEERING WIND PROFILE
AND SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1.5-2.0 KG/KG...SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

SATURDAY A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER...TO NEAR/ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BEFORE
RETREATING NORTH. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE /AND FARTHEST SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT/ AS IT DEVELOPS A COMPLEX ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND IT
BRUSHES THE FAR SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
EVOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER AS COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS THUS CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ATTM. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS
AN UA RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL INDUCE ABOVE NORM TEMPS /LOWER TO MID 90S/. WITH THE DRYLINE
LINGERING NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER ON SATURDAY AND UPSLOPE
SFC WINDS PERSISTING EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL PROMOTE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S...THE NAM...ECMWF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS DEVELOP PRECIP ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. ONE
MITIGATING FACTOR COMES TO PLAY AND THAT IS WEAK MEAN FLOW WHICH MAY
PROVE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO MAKE IT TO THE CWA. HOWEVER...SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS VALID WITH SEVERE
INDICES SIMILAR TO TOMORROW NIGHT INDICATING HAIL AND WIND THE
PRIMARY THREATS /SFC-BASED CAPE IS PROJECTED TO BE GREATER WITH
VALUES OF AOA 3.0 KJ/KG/. SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE RETROGRADES SW TO
NEAR THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA AND AS SUCH...THE DRYLINE SHIFTS TO
CENTRAL/WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ONE WOULD THINK THAT BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES SHAPE
AND MEAN FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER. AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOLUTIONS
DISPLAY PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

MODEL RUNS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING WHAT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL BE FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS DIFFER FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. IT IS SHOWN THAT UA RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH A NOTABLE UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE HINTS OF CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
JUST ESE OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...WITH
PERHAPS ONLY INCREASING CLOUDINESS OCCURRING OFF THE CAPROCK. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN SILENT POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW...AS THE
DESIRE TO ANALYZE FUTURE MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY IS WARRANTED. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH MAY ONCE AGAIN MOVE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  95  63  90  62 /  40  30  20  20  20
TULIA         62  94  66  91  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     63  94  69  91  65 /  30  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  97  67  92  65 /  40  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       66  96  69  92  66 /  30  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   64  98  66  92  65 /  40  30  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    64  98  67  92  65 /  30  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     69  95  71  95  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  70  93  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     69  97  73  95  70 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

14/29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1106 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

TXZ021>044-151615-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1106 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONCERN THAT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
FORM THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOME SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
OWING TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
COME FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.