Flash Flooding and Hail in Minnesota, June 14 to 15, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
442 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...

OVERVIEW...SEVERAL BOUTS OF RAIN LIKELY OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MORE HUMIDITY ARRIVES TODAY AND LINGERS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN NWS OFFICES HAVE BEEN DOING BATTLE
WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL THIS
MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE NOW ON THE FRINGE OF THE WESTERN BORDER
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LEADING AREA OF STORMS ARE ON THE NOSE
OF A VERY STRONG 850MB JET AND IN THE AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
SO FAR...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT. IN
FACT...THERE IS DEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH TIGHTENING
850MB-700MB ISOTHERMS. THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS IS LIKELY THE
RESULT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE MOISTURE IS ALSO MUCH BETTER BACK TOWARD CENTRAL ND/SD.
NONETHELESS...INCLUDED HIGH POPS IN CENTRAL MN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH TIME ALTHOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
WEAKENING TREND. INCLUDED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPMENT WHERE THE GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
POINTING AND PWATS ARE ON THE RISE. ACTUALLY ITS 09Z AND JUST NOW
SEEING SOME LIGHT ELEVATED ECHOES OVER THE METRO.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS THIS MORNING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WARM FRONT SHOULD MAKE
RAPID PROGRESS TO THE NORTH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY EXTENDED FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW
SPC DAY1 HAS A 10% TORNADO PROBABILITY IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI. CAN'T REALLY ARGUE WITH THIS GIVEN THE 0-1KM SRH
AND BULK SHEAR OFF THE NAM AND RAP...RIGHT AROUND 100-200 M2/S2
AND 20KTS RESPECTIVELY AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN MN.
THE MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD LIFTS NORTH LATE THIS
MORNING TOWARDS DULUTH. FURTHERMORE...THE TOP 15 DATES FROM THE CIPS
WARM SEASON ANALOG OFF THE 00Z NAM FROM LAST NIGHT DOES
CONCENTRATE THE TORNADO REPORTS IN EAST CENTRAL MN...WITH THE WIND
AND HAIL COVERING A MUCH LARGER AREA. MAX UPDRAFT HELICITY FROM
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW...AND TO SOME DEGREE NCEP WRF ARW/NMM...HAVE A
COUPLE CLUSTERS OF +50 M2S2 BY 15.00Z ALONG A LINE FROM DULUTH TO
ALBERT LEA WITH SLIGHTLY BACKED WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT NORTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO. IN TERMS OF TIMING...21Z IN
CENTRAL MN...00-01Z IN EASTERN MN...AND 04Z CLEARING WEST CENTRAL
WI IS A GOOD FIRST GUESS BASED ON SHORT-TERM MODEL CONSENSUS.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z SATURDAY...ITS EVOLUTION IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IN BOTH TIMING AND HOW MUCH IT DEEPENS.
THE RESULTANT SFC CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT ARE THEREFORE
AFFECTED...SO DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINK THERE WILL BE
GOOD STORM COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FURTHER COMPLICATE THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
ON SATURDAY.

STILL TRACKING THAT VORT MAX THAT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS
MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING OUT OF
CO TONIGHT AND TRACKING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ENDING UP
IN SOUTHERN MN BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT ORIGINATES OUT OF  CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST - SO LIKELY CONVECTIVE INDUCED.

IN THE EXTENDED...LONG WAVE TROUGHING BECOMING ESTABLISHED DEEPENING
AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH TIME. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEP CYCLONE MOVING NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AT THAT TIME
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...THE TROUGHING MIGHT BE HELD IN PLACE FOR A
WHILE WITH BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM HOLD THE PATTERN ROUGHLY IN
PLACE. THE CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN MY CREATE SOME HYDROLOGY
CONCERNS GIVEN THE RECENT WET PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE
ONLY A THUNDER MENTION AT KAXN AND KSTC THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL REDEVELOP AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRIED TO TIME THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL SHORTLIVED FROM GROUPS...BUT THESE WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE TIMING AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

KMSP...STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF THIS MORNING. A FEW SHORT-RANGE MODELS
INDICATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE METRO
AREA...BUT OVERALL THE BEST FORCING FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH. TODAY SHOULD BE VFR...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SPREADING
INTO KMSP BY 22 OR 23Z. THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.

/OUTLOOK/
FRIDAY...VFR WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES AFTN/EVN.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

CLF/JRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
141100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
404 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

MNZ041-042-047-048-055-141000-
DOUGLAS-TODD-STEVENS-POPE-SWIFT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...MORRIS...
GLENWOOD...BENSON
259 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ABERDEEN AND MOORHEAD WILL SPREAD INTO THE
APPLETON...MORRIS AND ALEXANDRIA AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
AFTER 4 AM THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
431 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

MNZ041-141015-
DOUGLAS-
431 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH 515 AM CDT...

AT 425 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
EVANSVILLE TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOFFMAN. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  MELBY.
  KENSINGTON.
  MILLERVILLE.
  LEAF VALLEY.
  ALEXANDRIA.
  MILTONA.

LAT...LON 4611 9558 4612 9519 4611 9516 4577 9515
      4577 9577 4597 9578 4610 9578 4612 9576
      4612 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 0930Z 270DEG 32KT 4610 9569 4576 9578

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
436 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

MNZ052-053-141015-
CHISAGO-ISANTI-
436 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER CHISAGO AND ISANTI COUNTIES THROUGH 515
AM CDT...

AT 433 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF ST FRANCIS. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ISANTI.
  BODUM.
  GRANDY
  CAMBRIDGE.

LAT...LON 4573 9302 4542 9304 4542 9343 4556 9350
TIME...MOT...LOC 0936Z 237DEG 27KT 4545 9336

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
456 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     HAIL             KENSINGTON              45.78N 95.70W
06/14/2012  M0.50 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CARLYON