Strong thunderstorms produced heavy rainfall and hail up to the size of nickels over Mesa Verde National Park.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Strong thunderstorms produced heavy rainfall and hail up to the size of nickels over Mesa Verde National Park.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 2:10 PM MST, 50 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 310 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012 TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN AZ AND NV TONIGHT THRU FRI NGT. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL BE UNDER THE WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SIDE OF THE SW U.S. AND GREAT BASIN RIDGE. THIS MORNINGS MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY IN THE GENERAL DYNAMIC SITUATION...BUT STILL EXPECT A BIT OF AN UPTURN IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PWAT WAS 0.95 INCHES THIS MORNING ON THE GJT SOUNDING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SW CO. WILL EXPECT TODAY'S SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO FURTHER MOISTEN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SO TODAY WILL SHOW A SLIGHT PRECIP UPTICK OVER YESTERDAY AND FRI WILL SHOW A SIMILAR PRECIP UPTICK OVER TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THE MAX TEMPS SHOULD TEMPER A FEW DEGREES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012 THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED ROUGHLY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO NEBRASKA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH HOLDS NEAR THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND PERIODICALLY EJECTS DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE A DISTURBANCE OR TWO ALSO GETS ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND WEST COAST TROUGH. GFS BUILDS THE HIGH BACK WESTWARD BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE IN THE PLAINS. ALL THIS FAVORS A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. NAM/GFS 850-700 MB AND 700-500 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS KEEP THE MAIN SURGE OVER UT ON SATURDAY WITH WESTERN CO ON THE EASTERN EDGE. NAM HINTS AT SOME DRYING OVER SE UT AND THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT. IN A MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE BROADBRUSH FORECAST OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR SAT-MON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. UNTIL ABOUT 6 PM MDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT KASE AND KEGE...OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND OVER MOST RIDGES. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SW COLORADO. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...JAD AVIATION...CC
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 610 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2012 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-131215- LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN- ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS- UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR- CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS- GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS- CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN- WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS- UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE- NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER- FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN- SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS- EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT- LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES- 610 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MUD DEBRIS FLOWS AND INCREASED FLOWS IN SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST UTAH. STRONG AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD THREAT WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. MUD DEBRIS FLOW AND INCREASED FLOWS IN SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
The Grand Junction radar (KGJX), 214 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:00 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall was reported over Mesa Verde National Park with hail to the size of nickles reported on Weathering Mesa.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 479478.