Colorado, 2012

Wildfire in Colorado, July 1 to 10, 2012

July 1 to 10, 2012 · NWS PUB · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

The Waldo Canyon wildfire was fully contained on July 10th. See previous month for a full narrative of this episode.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$400 million
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.

The Waldo Canyon wildfire was fully contained on July 10th. See previous month for a full narrative of this episode.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 10:20 PM MST, 1 hour 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 10:20 PM MST, 1 hour 40 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.AVIATION...

CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25MPH TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT COS AND PUB...AS
WELL AS ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. MORE OF THE SAME
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MTS AFT 18Z...WITH A FEW STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH 03Z. VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS AFT
20Z WITH MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS BEING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS. -MW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

..GUSTY WIND THREAT CONTINUES TONIGHT...MARGINAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS SUNDAY...

HAD A GUST CLOCKED UP TO 58 MPH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW NEAR CALHAN.  OTHER GUSTS OVER 40 MPH COMMON.  THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE WILL CONTINUE
EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL CONVECTION SUBSIDES.

A MARGINAL RED FLAG WARNING IS OUT FOR EL PASO COUNTY...TELLER
COUNTY AND ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS FROM NOON TO 9 PM
MDT SUNDAY.  THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL WITH THIS EVENT...
BUT CLOSE ENOUGH GIVEN THE ONGOING FIRE...EXTREMELY LOW FUEL
MOISTURES...DROUGHT AND RECORD HEAT.  ALSO...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS OVER 50 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.  TEMPS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. LW

LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

..BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NEXT WEEK...MAIN
WX CONCERNS WILL BE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSITION OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONSOLIDATE TWO H5 CENTERS...ONE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND ONE
OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO ONE STRONG H5 HIGH SOMEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY THE MID TO LATTER PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.  COMPLICATING MATTERS ARE SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE PACNW...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPR HIGH.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY SOLID PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE NWD
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH NEXT WEEK. BUT IT IS NOT
PARTICULARLY WIDE...AND SMALL SHIFTS IN THE UPPER PATTERN COULD
LEAVE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA IN DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM N TX AND
OK. NO REAL CONFIDENCE YET ON WHAT DAYS TO EXPECT A GOOD SOAKING
FROM THIS PLUME. MOST THAT CAN BE SAID AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE
PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TS
ACTIVITY STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT
NOW...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THE CONTDVD AND WRN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. SOME SIGNS ARE THAT BY THE WEEKEND THE PLUME MIGHT
SPREAD EWD TO THE SE PLAINS. IF THIS OCCURS...CONSERVATIVE MAX TEMPS
THAT ARE NOW IN THE FORECAST MIGHT END UP BEING 5-10 DEGREES TOO
HIGH.

BASED ON OVERALL TRENDS...HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED MOISTURE...BUT IT MAY
BE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEAR. BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTION IN THE WRN GULF IS A FAVORABLE SIGN THAT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MAY BE ON ITS WAY. 44

AVIATION...

GENERALLY VFR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH AGAIN
SOME AREAS OF SMOKE AROUND KCOS ESPECIALLY 00Z-16Z. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN DRIFT ONTO THE PLAINS. MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS INCLUDES ALL TAF SITES 21Z-02Z. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ221-226>237.

&&

23/23
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 30, 9:52 PM MST, 2 hours 8 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1052 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012

COZ058>089-093>099-020500-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1052 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO VERY
LITTLE PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOUNTAIN AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE INCREASED ACTIVITY. LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS EARLY IN THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME A CONCERN. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE WEEK GOES
ON. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ON THE
WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR AS WELL AS THE OTHER BURN SCARS ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

23/23

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, Teller County / Rampart Range Above 7500 Ft / Pikes Peak Between 7500 & 11000 Ft

When
July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 10, 7:00 PM MST
Where
Teller County / Rampart Range Above 7500 Ft / Pikes Peak Between 7500 & 11000 Ft forecast zone
Reported by
Park/Forest Service
Coordinates
38.729, -105.043 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Wildfire, Northern El Paso County / Monument Ridge / Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft

When
July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 10, 7:00 PM MST
Where
Northern El Paso County / Monument Ridge / Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft forecast zone
Property damage
$400 million
Reported by
Park/Forest Service
Coordinates
38.832, -104.526 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Wildfire
A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Colorado in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2012

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 385899, 385900.