Non-convective winds in wake of a squall line downed several trees and a couple of power lines near Dermott in Chicot County.
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The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
Non-convective winds in wake of a squall line downed several trees and a couple of power lines near Dermott in Chicot County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 1, 10:44 AM CST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1044 AM CST THU MAR 1 2012 ...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT... .UPDATE...EXPANDED ISOLATED POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOURLY ELEMENT GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. UPDATED DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW. /DL/ && .DISCUSSION...WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO BISECT THE CWA THIS MORNING. LATEST OBS/RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE FRONT HAS ACTUALLY SAGGED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM MONROE LA TO CANTON TO DE KALB. TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY... DEWPOINTS ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S. MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH... VALUES ARE APPROACHING 70 NEAR THE LA BORDER. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 84 AND HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDORS THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF 500-1000 J/KG ML CAPE. HI RES MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH IN THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD HOWEVER...AS CAPPING INCREASES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME. /DL/ && .AVIATION...E-W ORIENTED COLD FRONT DRAPED JUST N OF I-20 WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN...WITH A FEW NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SHWRS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING S OF THE FRONT THRU THE DAY. MVFR CIG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GO VFR THIS AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL BE LGT THIS MORNING...BUT A TREND TOWARD STRONGER S WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN WITH GUSTY CONDS PSBL TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE TSRA IS XPCTD TOMORROW/STORMS WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE DELTA REGION SHORTLY AFTER MID DAY. /BK/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 437 AM CST THU MAR 1 2012/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY IS ROUGHLY SITUATED AROUND THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THERE HAD BEEN SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT BUT THE BULK OF THESE HAVE SINCE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. LOCATIONS AROUND THE SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ALL NIGHT. WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE IMPETUS TO GIVE THE FRONT A MORE SOUTHWARD PUSH AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WE SHOULD HEAT UP AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES...AND HI-RES WRF RUNS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND TODAY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WHILE THE MAV GUIDANCE THINKS OTHERWISE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADD IN A 20% FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT BEING NORTH OF THE CWA BY 00-06Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SMALL POPS EXIST FOR GENERALLY HIGHWAY 82 AND NORTH FOR THIS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS...IF WE END UP GETTING ANY AT ALL(MAY ALL BE NORTH OF THE CWA). MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD...CONSISTENT AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CAPPED BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THESE STRUGGLING DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 850-700MB. HOWEVER AS WE GET LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON...SOME BETTER CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL FORCING AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHERN MS. WITH HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S..THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND ANY OF THESE MIGHT BECOME STRONG. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LINEAR AND MOVE ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WOULD OCCUR AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA WITH THE FRONT HAVING EXITED THE CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. AS STORMS INITIATE GENERALLY IN THE DELTA REGION...CONDITIONS DONT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR THE MOST SEVERE STORMS HERE AS THE BEST SHEAR(60-65KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR)...HELICITY(>200MS/S2)...SFC CAPE(NEARING 2000 J/KG) ALL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. IN AN AREA GENERALLY FROM GRENADA...TO CANTON...TO DE KALB...WE COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70MPH AND LARGE HAIL. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK WHICH DOES INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THIS AREA IN A MODERATE RISK. WHILE PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED SOME SLOWER STORM MOTIONS...TONIGHTS RUN DID NOT AND WHILE THERE COULD DEFINITELY BE SOME DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE SOUPY AIRMASS AND POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AM NOT AS CONCERNED NOW WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AND EXIT BY 12Z SATURDAY...LEAVING POST FRONTAL RAINS IN ITS WAKE. WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST NUMBERS...GUIDANCE CAME IN RATHER LOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND RAISED AT LEAST 3 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH SOME OF THE LOWER VALUES BEING RAISE CLOSER TO 5 DEGREES. AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...RAISED SOUTH POPS TO 20% TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ISO SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. ALSO RAISED SOME OF THE POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS CONFIDENCE IS GREAT THAT WE SHOULD RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS. /28/ LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE/LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY QUIET THE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN BEING TEMPS. FOR SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA WITH JUST SOME LOW END PRECIP CHANCES LINGERING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA AND HELP USHER IN COOLER/DRIER AIR UNDER NW FLOW. THIS COOLER AIR WILL LOOKS TO HANG AROUND UNTIL TUE...BEFORE SOME MODERATION OCCURS BY MID WEEK. FOR THE MOST PART...GFS GUID TEMPS WERE DECENT AND WERE FOLLOWED. HOWEVER...SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED AT A FEW SITES BASED OFF ENSEMBLE GUID AND SUPPORT FROM THE EURO. MOST OF THESE LOW END MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO HIGHS SAT/SUN/MON. OVERALL IN THE WAKE OF THIS AIRMASS CHANGE...CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE BELOW AVG...THEN AROUND AVG FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE SLOWLY TRENDING TO JUST ABV AVG NEXT WEEK. /CME/ && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && DL/BK/28/CME
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 545 AM CST THU MAR 1 2012 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074- 021145- ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND- MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR- SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES- CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON- NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER- WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH- SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN- LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST- 545 AM CST THU MAR 1 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE...AND TORNADOES. SOME STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE ALL LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THIS SEVERE WEATHER...LOCATIONS THAT ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PARCHMAN...TO VICKSBURG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL SEE AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. 28
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees and a couple of power lines were blown down in Dermott.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, March 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 365944.