A strong storm moved to the west coast of Alaska. This storm produced the typical strong hillside and Turnagain Arm wind in the Anchorage area.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A strong storm moved to the west coast of Alaska. This storm produced the typical strong hillside and Turnagain Arm wind in the Anchorage area. This storm produced strong wind through the gaps in the Aleutian Mountains. Wind is estimated to have been around 70 to 80 mph through the mountain gaps.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 28, 4:00 PM AKST, 6 hours 30 minutes earlier.
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA AND IS DOMINATING THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER ALASKA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE MAINLAND TODAY. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS BEING EXPERIENCED FROM THE WEST COAST TO CORDOVA.
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS NEAR 180 WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE TO STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SOME
SURFACE REFLECTION AS WELL. THE STRONGEST RIGHT NOW IS HEADED TOWARD
BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100KT JET. THE JET
HOLDING ON IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS AROUND 180KT. AT THE
SURFACE...A FEW LOWS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD BERING LOW. TWO ARE
ALONG 180 WITH ONE BEING NEAR 60N AND THE OTHER AT 50N. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THESE LOWS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND FREEZING SPRAY. THE STRONGEST LOW IS SOUTH OF COLD BAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS HITTING THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ANTICIPATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACTS ON SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN BERING AND WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
RE-CURVING TO THE AKPEN LIKE TONIGHTS LOW. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES OF THE EXACT PATH AND TIMING OF THIS LOW. THE GFS IS
TRENDING FASTER THAN THE EC AND CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL AND NAM.
HOWEVER...THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN THERE
FOR THE GFS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT SLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
TIMING OF WIND EVENTS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THAT LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA INTO THE BERING STRAIT. ANOTHER LOW
TO MOVE OUT OF NORTH PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER WIND EPISODE TO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
THE PRECIP PICTURE CALLS FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND SOME MIX
PRECIP SINCE THE SIGNATURE OF ALL THESE LOWS IS WARM AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION. SO TEMPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD ABOVE MOST MOS
GUIDANCE.
IN THE MEANTIME...WEAKER LOWS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN BERING
WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND MODERATE WINDS IN COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE FAR WESTERN BERING. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF ASIA MONDAY AND
CROSS THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
REACHING ATTU TUESDAY MORNING.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...BIG FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS STRONG WINDS TO HIT TONIGHT.
A LOW IS MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT WITH A FRONT PUSHING NORTH
TO THE GULF COAST. GAPS THROUGH THE TERRAIN ESPECIALLY TURNAGAIN ARM
AREA WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT SO CERTAIN IT WILL PUSH DOWN THE HILLSIDE TOO
MUCH...BUT WILL SATURDAY MORNING BRIEFLY. ELSEWHERE RAIN WILL BE THE
RULE AT LOWER COASTAL LOCATIONS DOWN TO KODIAK WITH STORM FORCE WINDS
IN THE GULF AND COASTAL WATERS WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TO
ROLL UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS IN
THE GULF AND COASTAL WATERS. PRECIP ONCE AGAIN WILL BE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR GAP AREAS AGAIN SUNDAY. TIMING AND
STRENGTH ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN...SO WENT WITH A WATCH FOR THE TURNAGAIN
ARM AREAS. ANOTHER SIMILAR LOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS GOOD JET SUPPORT FOR ALL THESE WIND
STORMS WITH THE MIDDLE ONE BEING THE MOST DYNAMIC AND UNCERTAIN RIGHT
NOW.
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP INLAND WITH THESE EVENT AND ALL WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL LOCALES. SOME HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 3 FEET OF SNOW BY MONDAY POSSIBLY
ADDING TO AVALANCHE DANGER.
SOUTHWEST...THE SAME FRONT THAT WILL BE BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL ALSO CREATE EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS THROUGH GAPS IN
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE TONIGHT. WARNING WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THE GAPS
AND POSSIBLY SURFACE IN BRISTOL BAY A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WEATHER LATELY HAS DROPPED THE CONCERN FOR
FREEZING PRECIP IN BRISTOL BAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A SHOT IN
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THE PRECIP SHIELD SWINGS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT...AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE
EXPERIENCED IN BRISTOL BAY DILLINGHAM WEST INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BRING SOME GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW. AS THE LOW
TRANSITS THE AREA...THE ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW IS QUITE BRIEF
AND INTENSE. THIS WILL BRING AN AREA OF INTENSE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
ALBEIT FAST. FOR THIS REASON...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FOR HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIP WHEN
THE INTENSITY SUBSIDES A BIT LATER TONIGHT BEFORE THE INTENSE SNOW
AND WIND ON THE BACKSIDE REACHES THE AREA. DUE TO THE TEMPS IN
BRISTOL BAY...EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW BUT NO BLIZZARD WITH
TONIGHTS EVENT.
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A LARGE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE
SURFACE LOWS ROTATING IN THE AREA. A VERY COMPLEX BUT RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MEAN WARMER RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS AND COLDER AND SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE WESTERN BERING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
TUESDAY NEAR ATTU AND PUSH EAST AND PULL APART. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER FOR THIS PART OF THE WORLD.
.LONG TERM FORECAST...
CURRENT DEEP LOW IN THE BERING WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT
RE-ESTABLISHES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
MAINLAND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH RAIN/SNOW MAINLY ALONG THE
COASTAL REGIONS.
.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 161
WINTER STORM WARNING 155
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152
HIGH WIND WATCH 101 125
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132 150 155 160 165 351 352
GALE 125 129 138 140 141 175 176 180 411 414
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 176 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE
NELSON DEC 122 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Wind gust are estimated based upon surrounding observations and analysis of the surface chart.
Carl Portman measured the peak wind of 75 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, December 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 419049, 418800.