An Ice jam developed on the Tanana River approximately 10 miles downriver of Manley Hot Springs and was first observed by a pilot at approximately 1430AKST on the 28th. A second smaller ice jam also formed at the landing at Manley Hot Springs.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFG wrote it up.
An Ice jam developed on the Tanana River approximately 10 miles downriver of Manley Hot Springs and was first observed by a pilot at approximately 1430AKST on the 28th. A second smaller ice jam also formed at the landing at Manley Hot Springs. The main ice jam caused water levels to rise rapidly at Manley Hot Springs during the evening hours on the 28th, and by 1830AKST the NWS river observer reported a stage of 15.24 feet on the Manley Slough, which is about 2 feet above minor flood stage. Water was beginning to flow over the Elliot Highway and east end of the runway. Many homes adjacent to the slough had water surrounding them and the low lying areas around the community were filling with water. By 0530AKST on the 29th the water level was 15.99 feet and continuing to rise. The water level was now higher than the 1993 flood and the highest since an ice jam in the late 1970's. Approximately 10 homes had water in the crawlspace and/or basement including at least one cabin with water in the main level of the structure. The water crested at 16.03 feet at around 1000AKST and remained steady into the afternoon. The extent of the flooding increased as more water continued to fill the low areas around town. Approximately 10 inches of water covered a 200 foot stretch of the Elliot Highway. By 1630AKST the ice jam near the landing moved, and the water began to quickly move out of the slough. BY 0600AKST on the 30th, the water level had dropped more than 6 feet, and the Tanana River and Manley Slough were no longer overbank.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 28, 1:28 PM AKST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 228 PM AKDT SAT APR 28 2012 .DISCUSSION... UPPER AIR...A 512 DM LOW 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT A MEAN TROUGH WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS NORTHERN AK. THE LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE NW ARCTIC COAST MON AND THEN CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTH. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TUE-FRI. SFC...A 1007 MB LOW 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR SUN PM...AND TO NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER BY TUE MORNING. NORTH SLOPE...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SPREADS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND INTO THE BROOKS RANGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST TO THE NW ARCTIC COAST. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -20C AT BARROW BY MON NIGHT WHICH IS EASILY IN THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THE END OF APRIL/EARLY MAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PUSHING EAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STEADIER SNOW EAST OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST MON-TUE. THE WIND REGIME WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INTERIOR...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR FROM THE YUKON UPLANDS SOUTH TO THE AK RANGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN PM THROUGH MON ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THE AIR MASS REMAINS WARM ENOUGH INTO MON IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR THAT ANY SHOWERS WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. TUE-THU BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. WEST COAST...A COLD AIR MASS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA/ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AREA BY TUE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE Y-K DELTA REGION TUE NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE...NORTHERN AK WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS HAS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR BARROW AT 12Z FRI WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THE CANADIAN/GLOBAL IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE LOW ACROSS NW ALASKA. MUCH SEEMS TO HINGE ON UPSTREAM ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE BERING SEA MID-LATE WEEK. IN ANY EVENT...THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. THE CFSV2 KEEPS COLD TEMP ANOMALIES ACROSS NORTHERN AK INTO WEEK TWO. && FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND RH'S REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ALL WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY...REPORTS FROM DAWSON THAT BREAKUP COULD BE A FEW DAYS AWAY ON THE YUKON. THE YUKON AT EAGLE IS STILL ICED OVER AND HAS NOT MOVED. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO WEEKS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SLOW BREAK-UP ALONG THE YUKON. ICE ON THE TANANA AT MANLEY WENT OUT YESTERDAY. TANANA WATER AND ICE HAS EATEN THROUGH THE YUKON ICE ALMOST REACHING THE NORTH BANK OF THE YUKON. SOME ICE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TANANA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH ALWAYS HAS THE POTENTIAL OF LEADING TO A LOCALIZED ICE JAM. THERE WAS AN ICE JAM ON BIRCH CREEK AROUND MP 145 ON THE STEESE HWY AT THE BRIDGE REPORTED YESTERDAY BUT THERE WAS NO FLOODING AS OF THE LAST REPORT LATE THIS MORNING. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && CB APR 12
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, April 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 368303.