Hail in Wisconsin, July 31, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
256 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND MON. MAIN FCST CONCERNS REMAIN ON PCPN
TRENDS BOTH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MON AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CONTINUED VERY WARM AND RATHER HUMID OVER THE NXT 24 HOURS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK CDFNT EXTENDED FROM ERN
SECTIONS OF UPR MID W-SW THRU NRN WI TOWARD THE MSP AREA. THIS FNT
HAS BEEN QUIET SO FAR...HOWEVER A FEW SHWRS HAVE RECENTLY POPPED
UP OVER CNTRL WI WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. VSBL
SATL AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MORE TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS
THE FNTL BNDRY ALREADY RETURNING NORTH AS A WRMFNT.

DIFFUSE CDFNT TO SAG INTO CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI TNGT AND COME TO A
GRINDING HALT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DOMINATING UPR RDG OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS. EVEN WITH COOLING TNGT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST
AND WITH THE FNTL BNDRY IN OUR VCNTY...HARD TO DROP POPS OVER
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. NRN WI SHOULD SEE ENUF DRYING (DEW PTS IN THE
50S) TO GO WITH A DRY FCST AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.
MIN TEMPS TO HAVE QUITE A RANGE WITH LWR 50S NEAR THE MI BORDER TO
THE UPR 60S OVER THE FOX VALLEY.

FNTL BNDRY IS FCST TO REMAIN HUNG UP ACROSS CNTRL WI ON MON...BUT
MAIN CONCERN IS PSBL MCV DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STG TSTMS TAKING
PLACE OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY. THE NAM/GFS BRING THIS
MCV TOWARD WI MON AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS PUSHING INTO NE WI DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE CANADIAN/UKMET KEEP THIS MCV FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST WITH NO TSTMS REACHING NE WI BY 00Z TUE. THE ECMWF IS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN BY BRINGING PCPN INTO NW WI LATER IN THE DAY.
HAVE HEDGED FCST TOWARD A NAM/GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE BASED ON THE
CORFIDI VECTORS/THICKNESSES WHICH WOULD BRING ANY COMPLEX TOWARD
WI. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR SVR ONCE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO BE
SUFFICIENT AND THE FNTL BNDRY TO ACT AS A FOCUS. HAVE GONE WITH
THE COOLER END OF GUID BASED ON MORE CLDS DURING PEAK HEATING.
NONETHELESS...YET ANOTHER DAY OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS WITH MID TO UPR
80S EXPECTED AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 92 TO 98 RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. TIMING/HEAVY RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FORECAST CONCERNS.  WESTERLIES REMAIN ALONG
THE CANADA AND UNITED STATES BORDER. TRANSITING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF STORMS. FOCUS OF FORECAST ON
SYSTEM MOVING EAST OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MON
EVENING. SURFACE LOW TO SHIFT EAST THRU NORTHERN MN MONDAY NIGHT
AND UPPER MI TUE. SEVERE MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MON/MON NIGHT
TIME FRAME TO THE WEST AS SIG LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTS WARM FRONT.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER STATE WITH PW'S
AT +2 AND CAPES AT 2 TO 3K. THUS MCS EXPECTED TO STAY TOGETHER AS
IT TRACKS EAST INTO WI. MODELS AT THIS TIME CARRY IT OVER
NORTHWOODS...THOUGH CORFIDI VECTORS/THICKNESS PATTERN SUGGEST MAY
TAKE A TRACK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES TRICKY ON TUE WITH RAIN/CLOUDS EXPECTED. HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE...THOUGH MAY NOT HAVE GONE FAR ENOUGH OVER THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN ON WED.

DAYS IN THE LATER PERIODS...DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...IN WHICH TO ADD POPS
NOT OVERLY CLEAR IN MID RANGE MODELS. TREND IS FOR HEIGHTS TO
DECREASE WITH STORM TRACK SUPPRESSED A BIT SOUTH. MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ON MAINTAINING A BOUNDARY MORE OVER CENTRAL IL. TWO
SHORT WAVE TROFS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CANADA THIS
PERIOD..DURING THU NIGHT/FRI PERIOD AND AGAIN SOMETIME SUN. WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS IN ON THU/FRI PERIOD...BUT STAY DRY REMAINDER OF
PERIOD ATTM. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSTMS TO IMPACT THE GRB AND OSH TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU MIDNGT. CLEARING
SKIES NORTH WITH LGT WINDS WL LIKELY ALLOW FOG TO DVLP OVERNIGHT
AND BRING MVFR VSBYS TO THE RHI...AUW AND CWA SITES. IF ENUF
BREAKS IN THE CLDS OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH...PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR
VSBYS ALSO PSBL AT THE GRB...ATW AND OSH TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN AFTER 14Z MON AS ANY FOG BURNS OFF. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS APPROACH NE WI MON AFTERNOON AS THE FNTL
BNDRY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WRMFNT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KALLAS/TE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-011645-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A CHANCE WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH A
SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE IN THE AREA...THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND OCCUR
BETWEEN 200 PM AND 900 PM.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE 90
TO 95 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT AND/OR
TUESDAY. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-011645-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...AND ROUGH WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT AND/OR
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...ROUGH WATERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.

FOG OR HAZE COULD RESTRICT THE VISIBILITY ENOUGH TO POSE A HAZARD
TO BOATERS AT TIMES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

AK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
529 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

WIZ036-037-045-312330-
PORTAGE-WAUPACA-WAUSHARA-
529 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

AT 523 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAUPACA...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WAUPACA BY 550 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

MPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
602 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     HAIL             2 NW WAUPACA            44.36N 89.09W
07/31/2011  M0.25 INCH       WAUPACA            WI   STORM CHASER

            ALSO ESTIMATED 45 MPH WINDS.

&&

RICHM