High Wind and Strong Wind in Washington, September 26, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
956 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2011

UPDATED THE AVIATION...MARINE...AND WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTIONS.

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY GIVING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY REACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN AND WIND ARRIVED ON SCHEDULE THIS MORNING. RAIN
IS WIDESPREAD WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ON THE COAST AND IN THE
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. THE OLYMPICS COULD RECEIVE AROUND THREE INCHES
TODAY. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ANYWHERE THOUGH RIVERS WILL
CERTAINLY RISE SHARPLY.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. WINDS
OVER LAND AREAS WILL BE IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50-55
MPH. OVER THE WATERS HIGH END GALES ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. AS
FAR AS TIMING GOES...ONE PEAK SEEMS TO HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ON
THE COAST...WHICH MEANS THE PEAK OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL
PROBABLY BE AROUND 18-19Z. THE GFS SLOWLY DIMINISHES THE WIND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM HAS A SECOND PEAK EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR WINDS CLOSELY BUT FOR NOW THE ADVISORY SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK. WINDS SOUTH OF EVERETT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE BREEZY
CATEGORY TODAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS TUESDAY. SHOWERS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG JET
AIMED PERPENDICULARLY AT THE CASCADES. WASHINGTON STAYS MOSTLY ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET SO THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH
BELOW 6000 FEET OR SO.

MAJOR IMPROVEMENT COMMENCES WEDNESDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE A SLOW WARMING TREND...FROM THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S TODAY TO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY AS
WELL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL MAINTAIN DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPS BOUNCING A FEW DEGREES OVER
CLIMO. THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER TO THE ROCKIES ON FRI AS A TROUGH DIGS
OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW A FRONT POSSIBLY CLIPPING W WA ON FRI...BUT
RECENT RUNS ARE TRENDING SLOWER AND WEAKER. WE WILL SEE. BEYOND
THEN...THE CONFIDENCE IS THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW. THE GFS AND EURO
SHOW A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...BUT EXACT
TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMALS. 33

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG UPPER LOW OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD
TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW. AN OCCLUDED FRONT OFFSHORE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BURST OF STRONG OR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MEANWHILE...THERE APPEARED TO BE LLWS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...THUS WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS IN MANY OF THE
TAFS UNTIL THE SOUTHERLIES KICK IN. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
2-4K FT RANGE TODAY. EXPECT RAIN TO RESULT IN VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.

KSEA...THE SANDPOINT PROFILER INDICATED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /16020 KT/
JUST ABOVE THE SFC THIS MORNING...THUS WILL INDICATE LLWS IN THE TAF
TIL THE SOUTHERLIES KICK IN OR BETWEEN 2000 AND 2300 UTC. CIGS WILL
LOWER INTO 2500 TO 3K FT RANGE BY 1900 OR 2000 UTC...WITH OCCASIONAL
CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2K FT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING WAS ABOUT 50 PERCENT...SO WILL INCLUDE
A TEMPO GROUP IN THE UPCOMING TAF. VSBYS WILL ALSO BE RESTRICTED AT
TIMES /MAINLY IN THE 4-6SM RANGE/ BY RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT...EXTENDING FROM A NEAR 970 MB LOW SW OF
HAIDA GWAII...WAS ABOUT 100 NM W OF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE SE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM ABOUT DESTRUCTION ISLAND N
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOK FOR HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
ON TUE FOR LESS WIND. HOWEVER SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 19
FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WIND ADVISORY COAST...WEST STRAIT JUAN DE FUCA AND NORTH
     INTERIOR.

PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1045 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 ENE VAIL              46.86N 122.58W
09/26/2011  M53 MPH          THURSTON           WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 36 MPH. TREE BRANCHES ARE
            DOWN.

&&

GRUB