Drought conditions persisted across portions of Southeast Utah.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Drought conditions persisted across portions of Southeast Utah.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 9:21 PM MST, 2 hours 39 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 1021 PM MDT FRI SEP 30 2011 ...A BOUT OF BLUSTERY FALL WEATHER IN STORE BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP POPPING OFF THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELK MTS THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MTS. THERE ARE NO DYNAMIC FEATURES SUPPORTING THESE SO THEY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NM WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS WESTERN EDGE ENHANCING TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WESTERN MEXICO THROUGH AZ AND INTO UT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL ROTATE EAST OVER WESTERN CO AS WELL. SPEED SHEAR WILL INCREASE A BIT AS THE SW WIND COMPONENT ALOFT INCREASES SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT AND MOISTURE TO WORK ON. WILL EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE SAN JUAN MTS. AGAIN...THE GFS PRODUCES NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY SUPPORT. SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF SATURDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH. THERE ARE NO VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH SO NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A VERY GRADUAL COOL DOWN DO TO CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST WITH WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE OPEN TO A MOISTURE PLUME BEING DRAWN NORTH FROM OLD MEXICO. MONDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER. BY MONDAY NIGHT COMPONENTS OF THE DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...THE GFS PAINTS THE FIRST LINE TO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THIS LOW TO MOVING OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE WILL BE DRIER AS A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD. BY WED EVENING THE MAIN TROUGH AND A STRONG JET MOVE ONSHORE AND SPREAD OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THURSDAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE TIME PERIOD WHEN THE STAND-UP COLD FRONT AND STRONG JET MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. IF THE GFS TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE FAIRLY ACCURATE... SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN BELOW 8000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINAL SITES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED YET AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...KEGE AND KASE...SEEING A BETTER CHANCE THAN OTHER TAF SITES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FORM AROUND NOON WITH SOME CUMULUS BUILDING FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THAT. MAIN CONCERN FROM STORMS WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AS STATED...VFR WILL BE THE MAIN FLIGHT CONDITION FOR THE CWA WITH BRIEF MVFR UNDER AND NEAR THE STORMS THAT DO FORM. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && SHORT TERM...CJC LONG TERM....CJC AVIATION.....TGR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 545 AM MDT FRI SEP 30 2011 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-011200- ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES- CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN- CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN- CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR- EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS- ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS- FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER- GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS- GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN- NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER- ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH- SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU- UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY- UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS- 545 AM MDT FRI SEP 30 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED GENERATING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS BUT LITTLE RAIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT. TGJT
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions remained in place in the Four Corners area of Southeast Utah through October.
Abnormally dry conditions persisted across the southern portion of the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Utah in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Utah, October 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 357936, 358136.